Sunday, February 27, 2011

Is having a great rushing offense the key to winning?

When the playoffs start, we hear the same lines. Defense wins championships, and the teams with the best rushing game will do great in the cold weather.  The former is definitely true, but does having a great rushing game really mean you're going to be great?  Let's take a look...

To prove this I'm going to break down the rankings of every playoff team in the last decade.

2000-2001 Season

Wild Card Teams
Tampa Bay (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-9th
Top Rusher-Warrick Dunn-1133 Yards

St. Louis (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-17th
Top Rusher-Marshall Faulk-1359 Yards

New Orleans (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-8th
Top Rusher-Ricky Williams-1000 Yards

Philadelphia (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-16th
Top Rusher-Donovan McNabb-624 Yards

Minnesota (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-6th
Top Rusher-Robert Smith-1521 Yards

New York (Lost Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-11th
Top Rusher-Tiki Barber 1006 Yards

Denver (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-3rd
Top Rusher-Mike Anderson-1487 Yards

Indianapolis (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-16th
Top Rusher-Edgerrin James-1709 Yards

Miami (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-14th
Top Rusher-Lamar Smith 1139 Yards

Baltimore-(Won Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-5th
Top Rusher-Jamal Lewis-1356 Yards

Oakland
Rushing Rank-1st
Top Rusher-Tyrone Wheatley-1046 Yards

Tennessee
Rushing Rank-7th
Top Rusher-Eddie George-1509 Yards

7 of 12 in the top 10
3 of 12 in the top 5
Average Total Rank: 9.42
Super Bowl Champs: 5th
Super Bowl Runner Up: 11th
Average Rank Of Super Bowl Teams: 8th

This year the Super Bowl teams are above the Rushing average of the entire playoff bracket. Let's see how this changes over each year.

2001-2002
Tampa Bay (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-30th
Top Rusher-Mike Alstot-680 Yards

Green Bay (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-21st
Top Rusher-Ahman Green-1387 Yards

San Francisco (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-2nd
Top Rusher-Garrison Hearst-1206 Yards

Philadelphia (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-14th
Top Rusher-Deuce Staley-604 Yards

St. Louis (Lost Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-5th
Top Rusher-Marshall Faulk 1382

Chicago (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-17th
Top Rusher-Anthony Thomas-1183 Yards

NY Jets (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-4th
Top Rusher-Curtis Martin-1513 Yards

Oakland (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-24th
Top Rusher-Charlie Garner-839 Yards

Miami (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-23rd
Top Rusher-Lamar Smith-968 Yards

Baltimore (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-11th
Top Rusher-Terry Allen-658 Yards

Pittsburgh (Lost Championship Game)
Rushing Rank-1st
Top Rusher-Jerome Bettis-1072 Yards

New England (Won Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-13th
Top Rusher-Antowain Smith-1157 Yards

5 of 12 in the top 10
3 of 12 in the top 5
Average Total Rank: 13.75
Super Bowl Winner: 13th
Super Bowl Loser: 5th
Average Rank of SB Teams: 9th

Once again, the Super Bowl teams outperformed the whole bracket.

2002-2003
New York Jets (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-22nd
Top Rusher-Curtis Martin-1094 Yards

Pittsburgh (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-9th
Top Rusher-Amos Zeroue-762 Yards

Cleveland (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank 23rd
Top Rusher-William Green-887 Yards

Tennessee (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-11th
Top Rusher-Eddie George-1165 Yards

Indianapolis (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-26th
Top Rusher-Edgerrin James-989 Yards

Oakland (Lost Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-18th
Top Rusher-Charlie Garner-962 Yards

Philadelphia (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-7th
Top Rusher-Deuce Staley-1029 Yards

New York Giants (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-14th
Top Rusher-Tiki Barber-1387 Yards

Green Bay (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-12th
Top Rusher-Ahman Green-1240 Yards

Tampa Bay (Won Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-27th
Top Rusher-Michael Pittman-718 Yards

Atlanta (Lost Divisional
Rushing Rank-4th
Top Rusher-Warrick Dunn-927 Yards

San Francisco (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-6th
Top Rusher-Garrison Hearst-972 Yards

8 of 12 teams not in the top 10
1 Team in the top 5
Average Total Rank: 14.92
Super Bowl Winner: 27th
Super Bowl Loser: 18th
Average: 22.5

This year, the Super Bowl teams were significantly worse than the average rank.

2003-2004
New England (Won Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-27th
Top Rusher-Antowain Smith-642 Yards

Baltimore (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-1st
Top Rusher-Jamal Lewis-2066 Yards

Indianapolis (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-19th
Top Rusher-Edgerrin James-1259 Yards

Tennessee (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-26th
Top Rusher-Eddie George-1031 Yards

Kansas City (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-15th
Top Rusher-Priest Holmes-1420 Yards

Denver (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-2nd
Top Rusher-Cilnton Portis-1591 Yards

Philadelphia (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-9th
Top Rusher-Brian Westbrook-613 Yards

Dallas (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-12th
Top Rusher-Troy Hambrick-972 Yard

Green Bay (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-3rd
Top Rusher-Ahman Green-1883 Yards

Carolina (Lost Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-7th
Top Rusher-Stephen Davis-1444 Yards

St. Louis (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-30th
Top Rusher-Marshall Faulk-818 Yards

Seattle (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-10th
Top Rusher-Shaun Alexander-1435 Yards

6 of 12 in the top 10
3 of 12 in the top 5
Average Total Rank: 13.42
Super Bowl Winner: 27th
Super Bowl Loser: 7th
Average Rank: 17th

For the second year in a row, the Super Bowl teams are below average.

2004-2005
New England (Won SB)
Rushing Rank-7th
Top Rusher-Corey Dillon-1635 Yards

New York Jets (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-3rd
Top Rusher-Curtis Martin-1697 Yards

Pittsburgh (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-2nd
Top Rusher-Jerome Bettis-941 Yards

Indianapolis (Lost Divsional)
Rushing Ranl-15th
Top Rusher-Edgerrin James-1548 Yards

San Diego (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-6th
Top Rusher-LaDannian Tomlinson-1335 Yards

Denver (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-4th
Top Rusher-Ruben Droughns-1240 Yards

Philadelphia (Lost Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-24th
Top Rusher-Brian Westbrook-812 Yards

Green Bay (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-10th
Top Rusher-Ahman Green-1163 Yards

Minnesota (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-18th
Top Rusher-Ontereo Smith-544 Yards

Atlanta (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-1st
Top Rusher-Warrick Dunn-1106 Yards

Seatle (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-8th
Top Rusher-Shaun Alexander-1696 Yards

St. Louis (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-25th
Top Rusher-Marshall Faulk-774 Yards

7 of 12 teams in the top 10
4 of 12 teams in the top 5
Average Total Rank: 10.25
Super Bowl Champ: 7th
Super Bowl Loser: 24th
Average Rank: 15.5

In a season where the top teams were more run heavy, the Super Bowl teams were below average for the 3rd straight year.

2005-2006
New England (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-24th
Top Rusher-Corey Dillon-773 Yards

Cincinnati (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-11th
Top Rusher-Rudi Johnson-1458 Yards

Pittsburgh (Won Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-5th
Top Rusher-Willie Parker-1202 Yards

Indianapolis (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-16th
Top Rusher-Edgerrin James-1506 Yards

Jacksonville (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-10th
Top Rusher-Fred Taylor-787 Yards

Denver (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-2nd
Top Rusher-Mike Anderson-1014 Yards

New York Giants (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-6th
Top Rusher-Tiki Barber-1860 Yards

Washington (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-7th
Top Rusher-Clinton Portis-1516 Yards

Chicago (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-8th
Top Rusher-Thomas Jones-1335 Yards

Tampa Bay (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-14th
Top Rusher-Cadillac Williams-1178 Yards

Carolina (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-19th
Top Rusher-DeShaun Foster-879 Yards

Seattle (Lost Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-3rd
Top Rusher-Shaun Alexander-1880 Yards

8 of 12 teams in the top 10
3 of 5 teams in the top 5
Average Total Rank: 10.42
Super Bowl Champs: 5th
Super Bowl Loser: 3rd
Average Rank: 4th

This year the trend is bucked. 2 Top rushing teams make it to the big game.

2006-2007
New England (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-12th
Top Rusher-Corey Dillon-812 Yards

New York Jets (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-20th
Top Rusher-Leon Washington-650 Yards

Baltimore (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-25th
Top Rusher-Jamal Lewis-1132 Yards

Indianapolis (Won Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-18th
Top Rusher-Joseph Addai-1081 Yards

San Diego (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-2nd
Top Rusher-LaDannian Tomlinson-1815 Yards

Kansas City (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-9th
Top Rusher-Larry Johnson-1789 Yards

Philadelphia (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-11th
Top Rusher-Brian Westbrook-1217 Yards

Dallas (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-13th
Top Rusher-Julius Jones-1089 Yards

New York Giants (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-7th
Top Rusher-Tiki Barber-1662 Yards

Chicago (Lost Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-15th
Top Rusher-Thomas Jones-1210 Yards

New Orleans (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-19th
Top Rusher-Deuce McCallister-1057 Yards

Seattle (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-14th
Top Rusher-Shaun Alexander-896 Yards

3 of 12 in the top 10
1 of 12 in the top 5
Average Total Rank: 13.75
Super Bowl Champ: 18th
Super Bowl Loser: 15th
Average Rank: 16.5

Another year where the top playoff teams were better than the SB teams.

2007-2008
New England (Lost Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-13th
Top Rusher-Lawrence Maroney-835 Yards

Pittsburgh (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-3rd
Top Rusher-Willie Parker-1316 Yards

Indianapolis (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-18th
Top Rusher-Joseph Addai-1072 Yards

Jacksonville (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-2nd
Top Rusher-Fred Taylor-1202 Yards

Tennessee (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-5th
Top Rusher-LenDale White-1110 Yards

San Diego (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-7th
Top Rusher-LaDannian Tomlinson-1474 Yards

Dallas (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-17th
Top Rusher-Marion Barber-975 Yards

Washington (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-12th
Top Rusher-Clinton Portis-1262 Yards

New York Giants (Won Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-4th
Top Rusher-Brandon Jacobs-1009 Yards

Green Bay (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-21st
Top Rusher-Ryan Grant-956 Yards

Tampa Bay (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-11th
Top Rusher-Earnest Graham-848 Yards

Seattle (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-20th
Top Rusher-Shaun Alexander-716 Yards

5 of 12 in the top 10
3 of 12 in the top 5
Average Total Rank: 11.08
Super Bowl Champ: 4th
Super Bowl Loser: 13th
Average Rank: 8.5

The SB teams outperformed the aggregate.

2008-2009
Miami (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-11th
Top Rusher-Ronnie Brown-916 Yards

Pittsburgh (Won Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-23rd
Top Rusher-Willie Parker-791 Yards

Baltimore (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-4th
Top Rusher-Le'Ron McClain-902 Yards

Tennessee (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-7th
Top Rusher-Chris Johnson-1228 Yards

Indianapolis (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-31st
Top Rusher-Joseph Addai-544 Yards

San Diego (Lost Divisional
Rushing Rank-20th
Top Rusher-LaDannian Tomlinson-1110

New York Giants (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-1st
Top Rusher-Brandon Jacobs-1089 Yards

Philadelphia (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-22nd
Top Rusher-Brian Westbrook-936 Yards

Minnesota (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-5th
Top Rusher-Adrian Peterson-1760 Yards

Carolina (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-3rd
Top Rusher-DeAngelo Williams-1515 Yards

Atlanta (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-2nd
Top Rusher-Michael Turner-1699 Yards

Arizona (Lost Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-32nd
Top Rusher-Edgerrin James-514 Yards

7 of 12 in the top 10
5 of 12 in the top 5
Average Total Rank: 13.42
Super Bowl Champ: 23rd
Super Bowl Loser: 32nd
Average Rank: 27.5

The SB teams were markedly worse than the average. 2 of the leagues WORST rushing teams faced off in the Super Bowl.

2009-2010
New England (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-12th
Top Rusher-Lawrence Maroney-757 Yards

New York Jets (Lost Championship Game)
Rushing Rank-1st
Top Rusher-Thomas Jones-1402 Yards

Cincinatti (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-9th
Top Rusher-Cedric Benson-1251 Yards

Baltimore (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-5th
Top Rusher-Ray Rice-1339 Yards

Indianapolis (Lost Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-32nd
Top Rusher-Joseph Addai-828 Yards

San Diego (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-31st
Top Rusher-LaDannian Tomlinson-730 Yards

Dallas (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-7th
Top Rusher-Marion Barber-932 Yards

Philadelphia (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-22nd
Top Rusher-LeSean McCoy-637 Yards

Minnesota (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-13th
Top Rusher-Adrian Peterson-1383 Yards

Green Bay (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-14th
Top Rusher-Ryan Grant-1253 Yards

New Orleans (Won Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-6th
Top Rusher-Pierre Thomas-793 Yards

Arizona (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-28th
Top Rusher-Chris "Beanie" Wells-793 Yards

5 of 12 in the top 10
2 of 12 in the top 5
Average Total Rank: 15th
Super Bowl Winner-6th
Super Bowl Loser-32nd
Average Rank: 19th

The SB teams, once again, were below average.

2010-2011
New England (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-9th
Top Rusher-BenJarvis Green-Ellis-1008 Yards

New York Jets (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-4th
Top Rusher-LaDannian Tomlinson-914 Yards

Pittsburgh (Lost Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-11th
Top Rusher-Rashard Mendenhal-1273 Yards

Baltimore (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-14th
Top Rusher-Ray Rice-1220 Yards

Indianapolis (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-29th
Top Rusher-Donald Brown-497 Yards

Kansas City (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-1st
Top Rusher-Jamaal Charles-1467 Yards

Philadelphia (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-5th
Top Rusher-LeSean McCoy-1080 Yards

Chicago (Lost Championship)
Rushing Rank-22nd
Top Rusher-Matt Forte-1069 Yards

Green Bay (Won Super Bowl)
Rushing Rank-24th
Top Rusher-Brandon Jackson-703 Yards

Atlanta (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-12th
Top Rusher-Michael Turner-1371 Yards

New Orleans (Lost Wild Card)
Rushing Rank-28th
Top Rusher-Chris Ivory-716 Yards

Seattle (Lost Divisional)
Rushing Rank-31st
Top Rusher-Marshawn Lynch-573 Yards

4 of 12 in the top 10
3 of 12 in the top 10
Average Total Rank: 15.83
Super Bowl Champ: 24th
Super Bowl Loser: 11th
Average Rank: 17.5

To finish it off, this year the SB teams were worse than the average.

Lets break this down.
Average rank from ALL playoff teams from 2000-2011: 12.84

There you have it folks. 12.84. To make the playoffs, the average team needs to have a rank of 12.84.

Lets look at the Super Bowl now.

Average rank from ALL Super Bowl Winners: 14.45
Average rank from ALL Super Bowl Losers; 15.55
Average rushing rank needed to make the Super Bowl: 15th

NEAR AVERAGE. That's the rushing attack you need to make the Super Bowl. Near average.

1 comment:

  1. I'd be interested to see an overall offensive ranking, broken down by passing and rushing, in comparison to defensive rankings, passing and rushing, to see which one is truly more important: offense or defense.

    ReplyDelete