So we embark on the endeavor that is the NFL offesason. Right now is the dull period. The Combine is starting and free agency is starting soon. NFL teams are getting prepared for the NFL Draft as well. One interesting situation is what is going to happen with Matt Flynn, the backup QB for Green Bay. He's a free agent and there's a shortage of QBs. Obvious teams in need of a QB are Indianapolis, Cleveland, Seattle, Washington, and Miami. Will Flynn go to any one of these teams? I think he's going to Miami, but not as a free agent. I think that Green Bay will place the franchise tag Flynn and trade him. A lot of people don't agree with me, but I've been saying this for a while now and everything I have said has come true so far, so let me explain why I feel this way.
The first hint that Flynn would be tagged came back on week 17. Flynn stepped in for Rodgers who got the week off because the Packers had nothing to play for. Flynn threw for 6 TDs and just 1 INT without top WR Greg Jennings. He came from behind to beat the playoff bound Detroit Lions with Matthew Stafford at QB. Flynn had played well in his one start in 2010 for Aaron Rodgers when Rodgers was out with a concussion vs New England, but one game doesn't tell you everything. Flynn in his two starts is 1-1 and has thrown for 9TDs to just 2INTs. Obviously, Flynn isn't a terrible QB.
The tag talk was just speculation back then. We had other free agent issues to deal with. Center Scott Wells who has done a good job since Mike Flannagan left and tight end Jermichael Finley who is a matchup nightmare dispite his frequent drops were also both due to become free agents. It was pretty obvious that one of those two would be tagged. Finley and the Packers seemed far appart on the contract negotiations and he seemed destined for the tag.
A big development occurred, however. Offensive coordinator Joe Philbin signed a deal with the Miami Dolphins to become their new head coach. The Dolphins owner Stephen Ross stated during the season that he wanted a "superstar coach and quarterback." If Ross' idea of a superstar coach was Joe Philbin, maybe his idea of a superstar QB is Flynn? A lot of people speculate that Peyton Manning will head to Miami, but I don't see this happening. In my honest opinion, I think Manning is done for good with football. 4 neck procedures is a serious thing. Manning's neck seems to not be responding well to treatment. He was only able to pass the ball about 20 yards during the season. His rehab is moving along too slowly for any team to put stock into him being their starting QB on opening day.
So now, Philbin is the head coach of Miami. He's implementing the system that Flynn has learned and practiced since he was a rookie out of LSU in 2008. Miami has a good offensive structure. They have some good offensive linemen like Jake Long and Mike Pouncey. Brandon Marshall is a perennial pro bowl wide out. Reggie Bush emerged as the back people expected him to be back in 2006. The issue in Miami is the quarterback position. Miami decided not to bring QB Chad Henne back leaving Matt Moore as the only QB left on the roster worth starting. Moore did in fact spark some life into the Miami team last season, but he's extremely limited. Miami is definitely in the market for a new QB especially because they have an entirely new system now.
So what options do the Dolphins have to rectify their QB problems? Let's look into it:
1) Keep Matt Moore. Moore would be the safest choice, but also the one with the least potential. The Dolphins know what they have in Moore. There is little risk in keeping him at QB, but like I said, he's limited. The Dolphins are looking to move up.
2) Draft a QB. At either pick 8 or 9, depending on a coin flip, Miami will likely be too far back to secure a top QB without trading up. At pick 8, the two best QBs available would be Ryan Tannehill or Brandon Weeden, both guys being enormous reaches.
3) Trade or sign a FA QB. The Dolphins have very few options here. They could try and get Peyton Manning if he's released, but like I said, his health issues probably scare most teams. They could go for Jason Campbell, but he's similar to Matt Moore. He's just an average guy. The best option here would be Matt Flynn. But what will it take to get Flynn?
Depending on what the Packers decide to do with Flynn, the Dolphins will have a legitimate shot at getting Flynn. We've already established that he'd be a great fit for the offense seeing as he knows it already and he can come right in and start. Let's first assume that the Packers let him go via FA and don't tag him. The teams that can't score a great QB in the draft will likely bid for his services. Washington, Seattle, and Miami would likely be in a 3 way fight for him. This will drive his cost up enormously and thus would likely net the Packers a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2013. This would be the easiest for everybody because it doesn't involve cap maneuvering. But the Packers stand to gain more than a 3rd round pick if they tag and trade, but just how much more?
To understand the complications the tag brings, I'll have to first explain the Packers' cap situation. As I mentioned earlier, one of the biggest issues with tagging Flynn was that it would make it impossible to tag Jermichael Finley. Finley and the Packers just agreed to a 2-year deal last night without using the tag which frees up the use of the tag for either Flynn or center Scott Wells. The Packers feel that Wells is overvaluing himself. Understandably, Wells took offense to that statement and is destined to hit the open market to try to get a lucrative deal. The only player left to deal with is Matt Flynn.
The first issue with tagging Flynn is the money that comes with the tag. NFL teams are not allowed to be over the cap and with the new Finley deal, the Packers are left with roughly $4.25 million in cap room. The franchise tag number for QBs is about $14.4 million which is all guaranteed which counts 100% towards the cap, so the Packers need to free up space in order to tag him. This is where Ted Thompson being a genius comes in. Teams like the Steelers are in cap hell because they structured the deals with aging veterans poorly. They gave up way too much guaranteed money. The Packers guaranteed nothing for 2 key players, Donald Driver and Chad Clifton. Driver is due to make $5,600,000 and Clifton is due to make $5,703,125. Both can be cut and those totals would be deducted from the total team salary putting us under the cap by roughly $15,553,125. This is plenty of room to tag Flynn and it will only last a couple of days until he gets traded. Also, sadly, if Nick Collins is forced to retire, this adds another $3,450,000 of cap room with no cap hit. After the trade is completed, the Packers would easily be able to sign Driver and Clifton back to smaller deals seeing as their roles will likely be diminished in 2012.
So the Packers have cap room now and they tag Flynn, Miami shows interest and wants to make a deal. Best case scenario would be the two teams swap 1st rounders and the Dolphins get Flynn. I know that won't sit well with many of you, but it's win-win for both teams. The Packers move up and can get a top 10 pass rusher. The Dolphins stay in the first round, but secure a QB, opening up options to improve their team later in the draft. Maybe Miami throws in a 5th rounder, but I doubt it. Miami can also ship over a 2nd rounder for Flynn straight up or maybe a 3rd and a 5th. Any of these options are more desirable than letting Flynn go and collecting a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2013. Compensatory picks are given at the end of each round. A 3rd round compensatory pick is given at the end of the 3rd round, so it is essentially a 4th round pick. You also cannot trade a compensatory pick, so even if we get a 3rd rounder for Flynn this year, we can still use it to trade up and snag a better player.
The actions of the Packers and the Dolphins indicate that a trade is imminent. Matt Flynn deserves this. He was a backup to JaMarcus Russell at LSU and the Packers gave him a shot. He beat out former Packer and Bill Brian Brohm who was touted as the most pro-ready QB in the 2008 draft class. He worked hard and he earned the right to go start for another team. Let's just make sure the Packers get compensated for their work in his development as well.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
How to Fix the Pro Bowl
Despite being literally the worst "All-Star" game of all the major sports, the NFL's Pro Bowl continues to dominate the ratings of All-Star games. Baseball's All-Star game has incentive for victory because the winning conference gains home field in the World Series. Baseball also offers fans a home run derby the night before. Hockey adopted a fantasy draft format to select their teams and they hold a skills competition before the game. Along with their All-Star game, the NBA holds a bunch of skills competitions and a developmental league game. NASCAR has an All-Star race seeded by race and qualifying results and if you don't make it in that way, you can race your way in before the actual race. The only thing about the race that matters is winning, so drivers are more reckless because they don't have to worry about losing points to other drivers.
Being the dominant force in American professional sports, the NFL is used to being the big dog. They're dropping the ball on this one. Right now their ratings are still higher, but they're falling and the other leagues are gaining on them. The NFL's decision in 2007 to ditch the Pro Bowl Skills Competition is baffling to me. They abandoned the whole "weekend" aspect of the Pro Bowl and made it into a singular event. The NFL could profit from showing fans to the fun, relaxed side of players. Instead, the NFL chose to show the fans the marginally exciting game. The players are showing their fun, relaxed side. The only problem is that it's in a situation where the fans are used to seeing the players leave their hearts on the field. Now, they're shown truly not caring. It's a bad image for the league.
If the NFL doesn't do something drastic, the Pro Bowl will be a thing of the past. It's already showing signs of failing. The NFL's decision to move it to a week before the Super Bowl instead of a week after seems like a desperation heave to garner viewers. It's a crass move that puts ratings over quality. The NFL doesn't care that the players from the Super Bowl teams don't participate in the Pro Bowl. They don't care that some players will have phantom injuries and drop out. Fans have put up with it in the short term, but as time goes by and the product becomes more and more inferior, the Pro Bowl will die a slow death.
There are issues facing making the Pro Bowl more interesting. The return of the skills challenge is definitely an easy way to garner some interest, but that doesn't fix how awful the game is. The first thing the league needs to do is move the game back to where it was, a week after the Super Bowl. This gives players 3 weeks to rest after the season and it gives the Super Bowl players an opportunity to participate. These players are the most marketable to the average person because more than half of the country watches the Super Bowl. If you have more participation from the people initially voted in, the games will be inherently more interesting.
The league also needs to do something to enhance competition during the game. They can't adopt a system like baseball where the winning conference hosts the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is a much more lucrative event than the World Series and requires 5+ years of planning to host one. The NFL needs to come up with creative ways to motivate the players to care about the game. I've tossed some ideas around in my head, and this is what I've come up with:
Skills Challenge/Voting Change
Bring back the Skills Challenge, but give meaning to it. The league should also continue current voting practices, but change how some players make the Pro Bowl. Here's how it'd work:
The top 2 vote-getters for every position are locked in for each conference. For example, Rodgers and Brees are the top 2 vote getters for the NFC, they're locked in. Use the Skills Challenge to lock in the final roster spot. The Skills Challenge will consist of the top 3 vote-getters not locked into the game for positions (4 for WRs because 2 will qualify) competing for the final roster spot. For QBs it will be an accuracy and distance contest, for OL it will be a one-man sled race, for DL it will be a strength competition, WRs a catching competition, RBs and DBs a speed competition, and LBs an obstacle course. The losers get a nice Hawaii vacation and they get to participate in a flag football game with the 2 remaining QBs as the captains.
Making the Actual Game Competitive
The game itself will be harder to make more competitive. Like I said before, it's hard to make the game more exciting because there's nothing on the line. Win or lose, the players get paid. My idea is modest and can easily be implemented. Give out an award for each position. Best QB, best LB, best WR, etc. It will make each position more scrutinized and give the players something to play for. It won't make the game the most compelling game ever, but it will add a twist to it.
The fans deserve better. We made football the most popular sport in America, the least they could do is make the game more exciting for us.
Being the dominant force in American professional sports, the NFL is used to being the big dog. They're dropping the ball on this one. Right now their ratings are still higher, but they're falling and the other leagues are gaining on them. The NFL's decision in 2007 to ditch the Pro Bowl Skills Competition is baffling to me. They abandoned the whole "weekend" aspect of the Pro Bowl and made it into a singular event. The NFL could profit from showing fans to the fun, relaxed side of players. Instead, the NFL chose to show the fans the marginally exciting game. The players are showing their fun, relaxed side. The only problem is that it's in a situation where the fans are used to seeing the players leave their hearts on the field. Now, they're shown truly not caring. It's a bad image for the league.
If the NFL doesn't do something drastic, the Pro Bowl will be a thing of the past. It's already showing signs of failing. The NFL's decision to move it to a week before the Super Bowl instead of a week after seems like a desperation heave to garner viewers. It's a crass move that puts ratings over quality. The NFL doesn't care that the players from the Super Bowl teams don't participate in the Pro Bowl. They don't care that some players will have phantom injuries and drop out. Fans have put up with it in the short term, but as time goes by and the product becomes more and more inferior, the Pro Bowl will die a slow death.
There are issues facing making the Pro Bowl more interesting. The return of the skills challenge is definitely an easy way to garner some interest, but that doesn't fix how awful the game is. The first thing the league needs to do is move the game back to where it was, a week after the Super Bowl. This gives players 3 weeks to rest after the season and it gives the Super Bowl players an opportunity to participate. These players are the most marketable to the average person because more than half of the country watches the Super Bowl. If you have more participation from the people initially voted in, the games will be inherently more interesting.
The league also needs to do something to enhance competition during the game. They can't adopt a system like baseball where the winning conference hosts the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is a much more lucrative event than the World Series and requires 5+ years of planning to host one. The NFL needs to come up with creative ways to motivate the players to care about the game. I've tossed some ideas around in my head, and this is what I've come up with:
Skills Challenge/Voting Change
Bring back the Skills Challenge, but give meaning to it. The league should also continue current voting practices, but change how some players make the Pro Bowl. Here's how it'd work:
The top 2 vote-getters for every position are locked in for each conference. For example, Rodgers and Brees are the top 2 vote getters for the NFC, they're locked in. Use the Skills Challenge to lock in the final roster spot. The Skills Challenge will consist of the top 3 vote-getters not locked into the game for positions (4 for WRs because 2 will qualify) competing for the final roster spot. For QBs it will be an accuracy and distance contest, for OL it will be a one-man sled race, for DL it will be a strength competition, WRs a catching competition, RBs and DBs a speed competition, and LBs an obstacle course. The losers get a nice Hawaii vacation and they get to participate in a flag football game with the 2 remaining QBs as the captains.
Making the Actual Game Competitive
The game itself will be harder to make more competitive. Like I said before, it's hard to make the game more exciting because there's nothing on the line. Win or lose, the players get paid. My idea is modest and can easily be implemented. Give out an award for each position. Best QB, best LB, best WR, etc. It will make each position more scrutinized and give the players something to play for. It won't make the game the most compelling game ever, but it will add a twist to it.
The fans deserve better. We made football the most popular sport in America, the least they could do is make the game more exciting for us.
The Brady Myth
The draft is quickly approaching, it's just over 2 months away. Every year when the draft comes we see the whole tired Brady storyline about him being a 6th round pick and now he's a 3-time champ and a 2-time MVP. Every 6th round pick that gets taken, especially QB, get's all this hype by fans of the teams that took them. You hear it all the time, "Dude, so and so is going to be great!" "He's a 6th round pick dude, relax." "Brady was a 6th round pick!!" But this logic is so unbelievably flawed.
For this post, assume a "good" QB is a QB who starts at least 1 full season and has at least a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. I think those are pretty modest standards for a QB. When it's close, I'll look at other numbers (YPA, QBR, etc.) to determine whether or not the player was "good")
First, let's look at the QBs drafted in the 6th round since Brady was drafted:
2000:
Marc Bulger, New Orleans Saints
Spergon Wynn, Cleveland Browns
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Todd Husak, Washington Redskins
JaJuan Seider, San Diego Chargers
This year, we have 2 good QBs in the draft. One is obviously Tom Brady, the other is Marc Bulger. Bulger threw for almost 23,000 yards and 122 TDs. Spergon Wynn threw 1 TD to 7 INTs in his career. So right now, we're at 2-3. 3 QBs in that group weren't successful at all.
2001:
Josh Booty, Seattle Seahawks
Josh Heupel, Miami Dolphins
Neither of those guys did anything, we're now at 2-5.
2002:
J.T. O'Sullivan, New Orleans Saints
Steve Bellisari, St. Louis Rams
O'Sullivan did start 8 games, but didn't have any success. Bellisari was converted to safety and is now a FA in the Arena Football League. 2-7.
2003:
Drew Henson, Houston Texans
Brooks Bollinger, New York Jets
Kliff Kingsbury, New England Patriots
3 guys that panned out to nothing, surprised? I'm not. 2-10.
2004:
Andy Hall, Philadelphia Eagles
Josh Harris, Baltimore Ravens
Jim Sorgi, Indianapolis Colts
Jeff Smoker, St. Louis Rams
4 more career backups. 2-14.
2005:
Derek Anderson, Baltimore Ravens
Anderson has had limited success. He has close to 40 starts, over 9,000 yards, and 53:55 TD:INT ratio. I think that's good enough to be considered "good." 3-14
2006:
Reggie McNeal, Cincinnati Bengals
Bruce Gradkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gradkowski fulfills the starts requirement, but falls a bit short on the TD:INT requirement. His 5.7 YPA and 65.8 QBR seal the deal. He wasn't very good. 3-16
2007:
Jordan Palmer, Washington Redskins
Not much to say here. Inferior to his older brother, Carson. 3-17.
2008:
Colt Brennan, Washington Redskins
Andre' Woodson, New York Giants
Unspectacular, 3-19
2009:
Tom Brandstater, Denver Broncos
Mike Teel, Seattle Seahawks
Keith Null, St. Louis Rams
Curtis Painter, Indianapolis Colts
4 guys with not much going on between them. Null and Painter both got some extended playing time, but neither performed particularly well. 3-23.
2010:
Rusty Smith, Tennessee Titans
Dan LeFevour, Chicago Bears
Joe Webb, Minnesota Vikings
Tony Pike, Carolina Panthers
Not much to say again, 3-27.
I'm leaving 2011 out because it's not fair to judge first year guys especially with no true offseason.
So let's analyze this a bit. Out of 30 QBs taken from 2000-2010 in the 6th round, only 3 have gone on to be successful. Just 10%. 1 of the 3 wasn't even extremely successful. Bulger was a good starter, but was never outrageously good even with Torry Holt and Issac Bruce.
Taking this further, let's see the current breakdown of starting NFL QBs.
Arizona: Kevin Kolb, 2nd Round
Atlanta: Matt Ryan, 1st Round
Baltimore: Joe Flacco, 1st Round
Buffalo: Ryan Fitzpatrick, 7th Round
Carolina: Cam Newton, 1st Round
Chicago: Jay Cutler, 1st Round
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton, 2nd Round
Cleveland: Colt McCoy, 3rd Round
Dallas: Tony Romo, undrafted
Denver: Tim Tebow, 1st Round
Detroit: Matthew Stafford, 1st Round
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, 1st Round
Houston: Matt Schaub, 3rd Round
Indianapolis: Peyton Manning, 1st Round
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert, 1st Round
Kansas City: Matt Cassel, 7th Round
Miami: Chad Henne, 2nd Round/Matt Moore, undrafted
Minnesota: Christian Ponder, 1st Round
New England: Tom Brady, 6th Round
New Orleans: Drew Brees, 2nd Round
New York G: Eli Manning, 1st Round
New York J: Mark Sanchez, 1st Round
Oakland Raiders: Carson Palmer, 1st Round
Philadelphia: Michael Vick, 1st Round
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round
San Diego, Philip Rivers, 1st Round
San Francisco: Alex Smith, 1st Round
Seattle: Tavaris Jackson, 2nd Round
St. Louis: Sam Bradford, 1st Round
Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman, 1st Round
Tennessee: Matt Hasselbeck, 6th Round
Washington: Rex Grossman, 1st Round/John Beck, 2nd Round
1st Rounders: 20
2nd Rounders: 6
3rd Rounders: 2
6th Rounders: 2
7th Rounders: 2
Undrafted: 2
Just 6% of the starting QBs in the NFL are 6th round picks. 59% are 1st round picks. 76% are 1st or 2nd round picks.
What round were the SB winning QBs drafted in?
Going back to 1990:
Eli Manning (2):1st Round
Aaron Rodgers: 1st Round
Drew Brees: 2nd Round
Ben Roethlisberger (2): 1st Round
Peyton Manning: 1st Round
Tom Brady (3): 6th Round
Brad Johnson: 9th Round
Trent Dilfer: 1st Round
Kurt Warner: Undrafted
John Elway (2): 1st Round
Brett Favre (2): 2nd Round
Troy Aikman (3): 1st Round
Steve Young: 1st Round
Mark Rypien: 6th Round
Jeff Hostetler: 3rd round
In 23 Super Bowls, just 4 have been won by 6th round picks. Only 2 different players did it. Where you're QB was picked DOES matter. 17 of the 23 winners have been 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round picks.
So remember all of this the next time some idiot starts spouting off how great his 6th round pick is. It DOES matter where your QB is taken. There's a chance that he may be good later on in the draft, but the majority of good QBs come from the early rounds.
For this post, assume a "good" QB is a QB who starts at least 1 full season and has at least a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. I think those are pretty modest standards for a QB. When it's close, I'll look at other numbers (YPA, QBR, etc.) to determine whether or not the player was "good")
First, let's look at the QBs drafted in the 6th round since Brady was drafted:
2000:
Marc Bulger, New Orleans Saints
Spergon Wynn, Cleveland Browns
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Todd Husak, Washington Redskins
JaJuan Seider, San Diego Chargers
This year, we have 2 good QBs in the draft. One is obviously Tom Brady, the other is Marc Bulger. Bulger threw for almost 23,000 yards and 122 TDs. Spergon Wynn threw 1 TD to 7 INTs in his career. So right now, we're at 2-3. 3 QBs in that group weren't successful at all.
2001:
Josh Booty, Seattle Seahawks
Josh Heupel, Miami Dolphins
Neither of those guys did anything, we're now at 2-5.
2002:
J.T. O'Sullivan, New Orleans Saints
Steve Bellisari, St. Louis Rams
O'Sullivan did start 8 games, but didn't have any success. Bellisari was converted to safety and is now a FA in the Arena Football League. 2-7.
2003:
Drew Henson, Houston Texans
Brooks Bollinger, New York Jets
Kliff Kingsbury, New England Patriots
3 guys that panned out to nothing, surprised? I'm not. 2-10.
2004:
Andy Hall, Philadelphia Eagles
Josh Harris, Baltimore Ravens
Jim Sorgi, Indianapolis Colts
Jeff Smoker, St. Louis Rams
4 more career backups. 2-14.
2005:
Derek Anderson, Baltimore Ravens
Anderson has had limited success. He has close to 40 starts, over 9,000 yards, and 53:55 TD:INT ratio. I think that's good enough to be considered "good." 3-14
2006:
Reggie McNeal, Cincinnati Bengals
Bruce Gradkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gradkowski fulfills the starts requirement, but falls a bit short on the TD:INT requirement. His 5.7 YPA and 65.8 QBR seal the deal. He wasn't very good. 3-16
2007:
Jordan Palmer, Washington Redskins
Not much to say here. Inferior to his older brother, Carson. 3-17.
2008:
Colt Brennan, Washington Redskins
Andre' Woodson, New York Giants
Unspectacular, 3-19
2009:
Tom Brandstater, Denver Broncos
Mike Teel, Seattle Seahawks
Keith Null, St. Louis Rams
Curtis Painter, Indianapolis Colts
4 guys with not much going on between them. Null and Painter both got some extended playing time, but neither performed particularly well. 3-23.
2010:
Rusty Smith, Tennessee Titans
Dan LeFevour, Chicago Bears
Joe Webb, Minnesota Vikings
Tony Pike, Carolina Panthers
Not much to say again, 3-27.
I'm leaving 2011 out because it's not fair to judge first year guys especially with no true offseason.
So let's analyze this a bit. Out of 30 QBs taken from 2000-2010 in the 6th round, only 3 have gone on to be successful. Just 10%. 1 of the 3 wasn't even extremely successful. Bulger was a good starter, but was never outrageously good even with Torry Holt and Issac Bruce.
Taking this further, let's see the current breakdown of starting NFL QBs.
Arizona: Kevin Kolb, 2nd Round
Atlanta: Matt Ryan, 1st Round
Baltimore: Joe Flacco, 1st Round
Buffalo: Ryan Fitzpatrick, 7th Round
Carolina: Cam Newton, 1st Round
Chicago: Jay Cutler, 1st Round
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton, 2nd Round
Cleveland: Colt McCoy, 3rd Round
Dallas: Tony Romo, undrafted
Denver: Tim Tebow, 1st Round
Detroit: Matthew Stafford, 1st Round
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, 1st Round
Houston: Matt Schaub, 3rd Round
Indianapolis: Peyton Manning, 1st Round
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert, 1st Round
Kansas City: Matt Cassel, 7th Round
Miami: Chad Henne, 2nd Round/Matt Moore, undrafted
Minnesota: Christian Ponder, 1st Round
New England: Tom Brady, 6th Round
New Orleans: Drew Brees, 2nd Round
New York G: Eli Manning, 1st Round
New York J: Mark Sanchez, 1st Round
Oakland Raiders: Carson Palmer, 1st Round
Philadelphia: Michael Vick, 1st Round
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round
San Diego, Philip Rivers, 1st Round
San Francisco: Alex Smith, 1st Round
Seattle: Tavaris Jackson, 2nd Round
St. Louis: Sam Bradford, 1st Round
Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman, 1st Round
Tennessee: Matt Hasselbeck, 6th Round
Washington: Rex Grossman, 1st Round/John Beck, 2nd Round
1st Rounders: 20
2nd Rounders: 6
3rd Rounders: 2
6th Rounders: 2
7th Rounders: 2
Undrafted: 2
Just 6% of the starting QBs in the NFL are 6th round picks. 59% are 1st round picks. 76% are 1st or 2nd round picks.
What round were the SB winning QBs drafted in?
Going back to 1990:
Eli Manning (2):1st Round
Aaron Rodgers: 1st Round
Drew Brees: 2nd Round
Ben Roethlisberger (2): 1st Round
Peyton Manning: 1st Round
Tom Brady (3): 6th Round
Brad Johnson: 9th Round
Trent Dilfer: 1st Round
Kurt Warner: Undrafted
John Elway (2): 1st Round
Brett Favre (2): 2nd Round
Troy Aikman (3): 1st Round
Steve Young: 1st Round
Mark Rypien: 6th Round
Jeff Hostetler: 3rd round
In 23 Super Bowls, just 4 have been won by 6th round picks. Only 2 different players did it. Where you're QB was picked DOES matter. 17 of the 23 winners have been 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round picks.
So remember all of this the next time some idiot starts spouting off how great his 6th round pick is. It DOES matter where your QB is taken. There's a chance that he may be good later on in the draft, but the majority of good QBs come from the early rounds.
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