Just How Bad Are the Jets' Cap Issues?

I've had fun bashing the Jets in the past, but as I mentioned in my last post, I actually feel bad for their fans.  GM Mike Tannenbaum and the rest of the front office have crafted some of the worst contracts in the league.  The Jets have just 40 players under contract and are $18 million OVER the cap.  I talked about Mark Sanchez last time, but let's go into greater detail about what options the Jets have.  Using data gathered from sportrac.com, I've determined that the jets have 4 options for Sanchez:

• Cut Sanchez.  This isn't exactly desirable, though.  Sanchez has a guaranteed base salary of $8.25 million in 2013.  He's also owed $2.5 million for his signing bonus from his rookie contract as well as $6.4 million accelerated from his extension contract's signing bonus.  $8.25+$2.5+$6.4=$17,150,000 cap hit in 2013
• Roster Sanchez.  Sanchez is owed his $8.25 million base.  He's also owed the $2.5 million bonus from his old contract and 1/4 of his signing bonus from his extension, or $1.6 million. He's also owed a $500,000 workout bonus.  $8.25+$2.5+$1.6+$500k=$12,850,000 cap hit in 2013
• Declare Sanchez a June 1st cut.  How this works is that Sanchez is treated like he's on the roster for 2013 which means that any bonuses he acquired at the time of the cut are counted against the 2013 cap and any bonuses that are in the future come in 2014.  Essentially, the Jets would have to pay his $8.25 million base, $2.5 million bonus, and $1.6 million bonus from the proration.  The Jets would be off the hook for the $500,000 workout bonus.  $4.8 million (3/4 of the extension signing bonus) would be accelerated against the 2014 cap.  $8.25+$2.5+$1.6=$12,350,000 cap hit in 2013, plus a $4,800,000 cap hit in 2013
• Trade Sanchez.  When a player is given a signing bonus, that money is paid up front.  That money is then prorated over the duration of the contract.  The team is obligated to pay for that signing bonus regardless of what happens to the player.  Sanchez is owed a total of $8.9 million in bonuses if he is traded.  This would be the easiest option if it were just $8.9 million the Jets had to worry about.  Sanchez, unfortunately, also has a base salary of $8.25 million in 2013 which IS guaranteed.  While that money IS transferable, it will be hard to convince another team that a QB who has severely underperformed is worth $8.25 million.  The Jets will likely eat some of that money IF, and that's a big if, another team is willing to trade for him.  You're looking at anywhere from $4-5 million the Jets would need to eat to trade Sanchez.  $8.9+$4-5=$12,900,000-$13,900,000 cap hit in 2013

Given those options, my personal feeling is that the Jets will in fact declare him a June 1st cut.  They don't want him on the roster anymore and they NEED cap space.  This move will put the Jets $500,000 closer to being under cap, but it leaves them now with 39 players under contract in 2013.  Let's look at some more options for the Jets to cut.  As I go on and list players, I will show their individual savings in green as well as the total cap room in red.

• Calvin Pace: $5,810,000 base salary, $3,013,333 signing bonus, $2,500,000 roster bons, $500,000 workout bonus.  If the Jets cut him, $3,013,333-$5,810,000-$2,500,000-$500,000=$5,796,667 savings, -$12,203,333 cap room if cut.
• Santonio Holmes: $11,000,000 base salary, $1,250,000 signing bonus, $250,000 workout bonus.  Contract through 2015.  If the Jets cut Holmes, $3,750,000-$11,000,000-$250,000=$7,500,000 savings, -$10,500,000 cap room if cut, -$4,703,333 cap room if Holmes AND Pace are cut.
• Eric Smith: $2,400,000 base salary, $600,000 workout bonus.  If the Jets Cut him, -$2,400,000-$600,000=$3,000,000 savings, -$15,000,000 cap room if cut, -$1,703,333 cap room if Holmes, Pace, AND Smith are cut.
• Bart Scott: $6,900,000 base salary, $1,500,000 signing bonus, $250,000 roster bonus.  If the Jets cut him, $1,500,000-$250,000-$6,900,000=$5,650,000 savings, -$12,350,000 cap room if cut, +$3,946,667 if Holmes, Pace, Smith, and Scott are cut.
• David Harris: $10,900,000 base salary, $2,000,000 signing bonus, $100,000 roster bonus.  Contract through 2014.  If the Jets cut Harris, $4,000,000-$10,900,000-$100,000=$7,000,000 savings, -$11,000,000 cap room if cut, +$10,946,667 cap room if Holmes, Pace, Smith, Scott, and Harris are cut.
• Jason Smith: $750,000 base salary, $11,250,000 roster bonus.  If the Jets cut Smith, -$750,000-$11,250,000=$12,000,000 savings, -$7,000,000 cap room if cut, +$22,946,667 cap room if Holmes, Pace, Smith, Scott, and Harris are cut.

Unfortunately, I was unable to get data on Tim Tebow's contract, but I would have thrown him in there.  If you designate Sanchez a June 1st cut, you can add another $500,000 to that cap number and it would come in at $23,446,667 freed up.  The Jets would be down to 33 players under contract, but that leaves $1.1 million PER PLAYER available to get up to 53 guys.  As it stands without cutting anybody, the Jets would have -$1,384,615.4 per player to sign the remaining 13 needed to get to 53.  The Jets are in for a rude awakening in 2013.  They will indeed be a rebuilding team.  Rex Ryan will likely be gone as well as Tannenbaum.  Say goodbye to the NY Jets you know.  Perhaps the Jets sign a FA QB like a Vince Young, trade for Jason Campbell, promote McElroy to QB, or draft a QB.  Any way you slice it, though, it's extremely unlikely Sanchez will play football for the Jets again.

Is there really a de-emphasis on running backs?

We always hear about the RB position being forgotten about, but how true is that?  I set out writing this article trying to prove that the running game in the NFL is lacking, but evidence shows me that it's not even close to being true.  The running game is as strong as ever, the pass has just taken over.  Individual TEAMS may abandon the run completely, but as a whole there is NO league trend showing that rushing trends are down.  Want proof?  Here are the total rushing yards for the NFL for each of the last seasons dating back to 1991:

2011-59,978
2010-58,607
2009-59,739
2008-59,370
2007-56,790
2006-60,061
2005-57,583
2004-59,709
2003-60,341
2002-59,459
2001-55,440
2000-55,829
1999-52,819
1998-54,093
1997-54,260
1996-52,306
1995-51,886
1994-46,710
1993-49,295
1992-49,509
1991-48,237

So wait, the last 4 years are almost 10,000 yards less than the 2011 total?  Why is that?  Because there were only 28 teams!  Still, the totals from 2002 on crush the totals of any era before it, so we're actually in an era of MORE rushing yards instead of less rushing.  The difference is HOW the rushing yards are attained.  In 2011, we have more of a "running back by committee" rushing attack because of durability issues.  QBs are also a HUGE part of rushing totals.  QBs racked up 5,955 yards in 2011, that's 10% of the total rushing stats for the league.  In 1991, that total was 3,030 or just 6.2%.

There are also less traditional backs now than there were in 1991.  10 backs in 2011 broke 1400 yards from scrimmage compared to just 3 in 1991.  All 3 of those backs in 1991 were over 1400 yards rushing while just 1 of the 10 backs in 2011 were over 1400 yards rushing.  This demonstrates that backs now are expected to both receive and rush with the football.  Rushing has also become more effective.  YPC for the league in 2011 was 4.3 compared to 3.9 in 1991.  From 1991 to 1999, the YPC number never reached higher than 4.0.  From 2000 to 2011, the YPC number never dipped below 4.0 and it only hit 4.0 once.  The NFL has shifted gears and has actually become more efficient rushing.

It's easy to slip in to the mindset that the run is dying in the NFL, but that would be a false idea.  In 2011, 4.3% of passes went for TDs, the average yards per attempt was 7.2, and the average yards per game was 229.7.  In 1999, only 3.7% of passes went for TDs, yards per attempt was 6.9, and yards per game was 199.1.  Passing has DEFINITELY increased, but it's an illusion that rushing has decreased as a result.  It is true that the running game may look different, it's still a viable option and will be for years to come.

Why the Jets Need To Get Rid of Sanchez...but Can't

Unfair or not, part of being a 1st round draft choice gives you the burden of producing immediate success.  Typically, a QB taken high is going to a team that is in desperate need of a passer.  In 2009, the Jets traded their 1st and 2nd round picks and 3 players to the Browns to move up to number five and snag Mark Sanchez, QB from USC.  The Jets were actually a pretty good team with a void at QB.  With Brett Favre at QB in 2008, the Jets finished with a 9-7 record and narrowly missed the playoffs.  After Favre retired from football (for the 2nd time) the Jets were faced with a hole at QB.  With an inexperienced Kellen Clemens as the only QB on the roster, they either had to make a play for a QB or settle on Clemens.

On draft day 2009, Mark Sanchez was riding the hype train all the way to the top of the draft boards.  He was ranked as the number two QB that day behind Georgia's Matthew Stafford.  However, Mark Sanchez was a huge risk considering he had just 16 college starts.  The Jets figured the inexperience was irrelevant and traded up to take him at #5 overall.  With $28 million guaranteed in his rookie contract, Sanchez was expected to perform immediately.

His results?  Disappointing.  It's very true that despite backing into the playoffs his 1st two years, the Jets made it to the AFC title game, but looking at HOW the Jets did it, Sanchez doesn't deserve much credit at all.  In 2009, the Jets were the 31st best passing offense.  In 2010 they were the 22nd best.  The reason the Jets won was clearly because of their #1 rushing and defensive units in 2008 and their #6 and #4 defensive and rushing units in 2010.  In those two years Sanchez threw 33 interceptions and fumbled 19 times while scoring just 35 times.

It's easy to get caught up in the hype, however.  The Jets were 20-12 over those two years and Sanchez scored 5 4th quarter comeback wins in those 20 wins so the Jets were playing exciting football.  Success is the best deodorant.  You win a ton of games and make them exciting and people tend to forget about the fact that you threw 4 INTs in a game last week.  But the fact of the matter is that the Jets' QB situation is horrendous.

Here are some quick facts about Sanchez:

• 16 of 59 starts had 2+ interceptions or about 27% of his games.
• He has been held without a TD pass in 17 of 59 starts or 29% of his games.
• 39 of 59 starts he has been held under 60% completions.
• 34 of 59 starts he has been held under 7.00 YPA.
• 15 of 59 starts he has been held under 150 yards passing.
• Just 12 of 59 starts have resulted in a 100+QB Rating.

Since 2010, however, the Jets haven't been as successful.  Why is that?  Simply, the run game and defense can't bail Sanchez out.  The last two seasons, the Jets have been ranked 20th and 19th on defense and 22nd and 11th rushing the ball.  There is some truth to the argument that the Jets offense lacks playmakers, but they have had some pretty good guys in there for Sanchez in the past and he's underperformed.  Many elite QBs can be successful with seemingly anybody as well.  Eli has Cruz, Brady has Welker, Romo has Austin, Favre had Driver, Peyton had Collie.  Great QBs can plug in anybody and have some sort of success.  Sanchez can't do that.  Sanchez has no respect and no control.

The biggest issue with Sanchez is that he's not getting better.  Fans are comparing Sanchez to Eli's first 4 years and I think that's downright insane.  After Eli's first season, he never dipped below 4% in TD %, a mark that Sanchez has only hit once in 4 seasons.  They are both sloppy with the ball, but Eli took some HUGE steps forward and he also consistently puts up points.  Sanchez has always look just downright bad with some flashes of good thrown in.

The Jets need a change at QB.  I don't think it should be Tebow or McElroy.  The Jets need new blood on their roster.  As Mike Florio from profootballtalk.com pointed out, the Jets had to deactivate McElroy to give Sanchez some confidence.  Sanchez is shaken and he's likely not going to recover.

What I find most offensive about the Jets, however, is Mike Tannenbaum.  I don't think most fans know just how badly the Jets will suffer because of the horrendous deals he's cut.  Currently, the Jets are going to be $20 million OVER the cap in 2013.  The Jets front-loaded Sanchez's contract, so 2013 is a very cap heavy year for his contract.  The Jets basically gave him a 2 year window to prove himself when he signed his extension in 2012.  Unfortunately, after 1 season, he needs to go.  If the Jets were to cut Sanchez, his guaranteed bonuses would accelerate to $17.1 million against the 2013 cap.  Since his current 2013 cap hit would be $12,853,125, it would add another $4.25 million to the $20 million the Jets are currently over for next year.  The Jets could cut Sanchez after June 1st as a "June 1st cut."  This would actually save the Jets $500,000 in 2013, but it also pushes $4.8 million to 2014.

Essentially, the issue is that Sanchez can't be cut and no team would trade for him.  Tannenbaum basically negotiated a contract that forces the Jets to at least roster Sanchez for one more year.  The Jets are going to have to make some serious cuts this year.  Guys like Santonio Holmes is definitely gone and David Harris may join him too.  The Jets may even do something drastic like trade D'Brickishaw Ferguson.  One thing is for certain, the Jets scouting staff and management may be the worst in the league.  The contracts they gave are just downright terrible.  I actually feel sympathy for Jets fans.
 

The Packer's Kryptonite: The Wide 9

As a Packer fan, I'm having serious doubts about the remainder of the season.  Injuries are mounting, but unlike the 2010 season where guys were able to step up, the 2012 crop is decimated.  One of the biggest injuries occurred back in 2011.  1st round pick Derrick Sherrod was finally starting to come into his own as the team's starting LT.  Marshall Newhouse was busy getting beat every play and the Packers desperately needed help.  Sherrod at 6'5" 321 pounds didn't lack the necessary skillset to play in the NFL, but he was having trouble with scheme.  He was starting to get the hang of things when a catastrophic leg injury ended his season last year as well as the entire 2012 season.

Why this particular injury hurts us so badly is because teams have employed the "wide-9" look against us.  In football, a defensive lineman's alignment on the offensive lineman is referred to as a "technique."  You may hear a defensive linemen during the draft referred to as a, "4-3 3-technique defensive tackle."  That is a guy who is lined up on the outside shoulder of the guard.  Here's a full list of alignments:

0 tech--head up on the center
1 tech--inside shoulder of guard
2 tech--head up on the guard
3 tech--outside shoulder of guard
4 tech--inside shoulder of tackle
5 tech--head up on the tackle
6 tech--outside shoulder of tackle
7 tech--inside shoulder of tight end
8 tech--head up on tight end
9 tech--outside shoulder of tight end
Wide 9 tech--far outside shoulder of tight end

Bear with me, this is all coming together.  The wide-9 is when a defensive player is lined up on the line of scrimmage completely away from the body of the TE or Tackle.  Here's an example of the Giants lined up in that formation vs Green Bay in the regular season meeting last year:

Notice how Jason Pierre Paul is lined up outside of Marshall Newhouse in the left of the picture and Mathias Kiwanuka is lined up outside of Bryan Bulaga on the right?  That's the wide-9.  Marshall Newhouse just cannot compete with this kind of pass rush from elite pass rushers.  In the next 5 games, he will have to face:

Jared Allen twice.
Kyle Vanden Bosch.
Kamerion Wimbley.
Julius Peppers.

I can guarantee that ALL of those guys will be lined up in the wide 9 technique frequently.  The point of the wide-9 tech is to get your speed rushers upfield in obvious passing situations.  It leaves you liable for some inside rushing between the A gaps thus it's not a viable alignment for all situations, but it's key when you get a one dimensional team like Green Bay.  The defensive ends shoot for an area about 8 yards deep in the backfield, that's where the QB typically ends his dropback.  A good example was from last Sunday's game between the Packers and the Giants.  The Packers have the ball at their own 39 so Osi Umenyiora, lined up in the wide 9 tech, is shooting for about the 31 yard line.  He gets a great step off the ball as Newhouse is basically flatfooted and barely gets touched.  Where does the hit occur?  At the 31 yard line as Rodgers is finishing up his dropback.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000100865/Umenyiora-sack-fumble

This is where Sherrod comes in.  The best way to combat the wide-9 is to have an offensive tackle with long arms (35 3/8" for Sherrod) and a quick first step.  Sherrod possesses both of those.  The way it works in theory is to isolate the defender to the outside.  If your lineman is quick enough and can create separation, the defender will rush himself out of the play allowing your QB to step up into a clean pocket and complete the pass.

In a way, the OL was doomed before the season even began.  Without Sherrod, the Packers will continue to struggle because Newhouse struggles to get a quick first step and cannot consistently keep rushers outside.  Pair this along with the loss of Bryan Bulaga and you have Newhouse at LT and Evan Deitrich-Smith at LG and the left side of the line is a complete and utter liability.  With the loss of Cedric Benson, the Packers go into most games with no legitimate rushing threat thus teams can rush 4 men and drop 7 using 2 deep stafeties  to take away the big play and the result is a QB who doesn't have more than 2-3 seconds to make a decision in the pocket.  And you have the most sacked QB in the NFL, Aaron Rodgers.

I fear that this is too steep of an obstacle to overcome.  Most good NFL teams have an elite pass rusher and this problem will be amplified come January if the Packers make the playoffs.  I'm hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.  I just hope Rodgers doesn't get hurt before the end of the year.

Grading the Packers Players Individually

Here's a little fun opinion piece I have for the Packers current roster.  Enjoy!

Quarterbacks:
Aaron Rodgers
Stats-
Passing: 238/354 67.2% 2,619 yards 27 TD 6 INT 7.4 YPA 107.3 QB rating
Rushing:  36 Att 156 Yards 0 TD 4.6 Y/A
Grade: A-
Rodgers started out extremely slowly but has quickly returned to 2011/2012 MVP form.  He's had a couple uncharacteristically bad throws, but he's on pace to have his 3rd sub 10 INT season in 5 years. 

Graham Harrell
Stats-
Passing: 0/0 0% 0 yards
Rushing: 1 attempt 0 yards
Grade: F
He would get an incomplete, but he had trouble handling a snap that almost killed the Packers.  Lost the ball inside the opponent's 5. 

Running Backs:
Cedric Benson
Stats-
Rushing: 71 Att. 248 yards 1 TD 3.5 Y/A
Receiving: 14 Rec 97 yards 0 TD 6.9 Y/R
Grade: B-
Ced's stats don't look amazing, but compare them with the stats of the past couple years of Green Bay rushing and he actually gave life to a dormant aspect of offense.

Alex Green
Stats-
Rushing: 87 Att 272 yards 0 TD 3.1 Y/A
Receiving: 11 Rec 90 yards 0 TD 8.2 Y/R
Grade: C
His stats are similar to Benson's, but Green struggled in pass protection and gaining short yardage.  He seemed hesitant at too many points.  Most of his yardage came on a 41 yard carry.  He averages just 2.7 yards a carry without that run. 

James Starks
Stats-
Rushing: 48 Att 154 Yards 0 TD 3.2 Y/A
Receiving: 2 Rec 15 yards 0 TD 7.5 Y/R
Grade: C-
He just escapes a D because of his performance yesterday.  He ran hard, but much of the season before that he was a healthy scratch.  That's a big fall considering that the 2 backs ahead of him are a 2nd year 3rd round pick coming off of a knee injury and the ancient Ced Benson. 

John Kuhn
Stats-
Rushing: 12 Att 38 yards 1 TD 3.2 Y/A
Receiving: 8 Rec 70 yards 0 TD 8.8 Y/R
Grade: B+
Kuhn continues to just be extremely versatile.  On offense, he is an excellent blocking fullback and he has good hands as a receiver.  He doesn't get the A because he's still not a great short yardage back, but he's getting there.

Johnny White
Stats-
Rushing: 0 Att 0 yards 0 TD 0 Y/A
Grade: INC
Hasn't seen action yet.

Brandon Saine
Stats-
Rushing: 0 Att 0 yards 0 TD 0 Y/A
Grade: INC
He had a productive period in 2011 where he gained 138 yards on 28 touches, but an injury has shelved Saine for the year in 2012.

Tight Ends
Jermichael Finley
Stats-
Receiving: 32 Rec 337 yards 2 TDs 10.5 Y/R
Grade: C-
His lack of production is inexcusable.  I'd say more, but I'd get too angry.

Tom Crabtree
Stats-
Receiving: 6 Rec 183 yards 3 TDs 30.5 Y/R
Grade: A
Crabtree was a surprise this season.  He was brought in specifically to be a blocking TE, but he's blossomed into a legitimate receiving threat.  He's not going to line up every down as a pass catching TE, but he's officially a threat.  That gives us some flexibility when we come out in 3 TE/2 RB formations.  He's an asset. 

DJ Williams
Stats-
Receiving: 4 Rec 37 yards 0 TD 9.3 Y/R
Grade: INC
He hasn't played enough to warrant a grade here.  He's pushing for playing time and has the ability, he just needs to put it together.

Andrew Quarless
Stats-
Receiving: 0 Rec 0 yards 0 TD 0 Y/R
Grade: INC
Started the year on PUP list, just starting to practice.

Ryan Taylor
Stats-
Receiving: 0 Rec 0 yards 0 TD 0 Y/R
Grade: B
 No stats and a B grade?  Yup.  Taylor is a special teams beast.  He's a big reason why the Packers have a huge return game with Randall Cobb.

Wide Receivers 
Randall Cobb
Stats-
Receiving: 54 Rec 574 yards 7 TDs 10.6 Y/R
Rushing: 8 Att 115 yards 0 TD 14.4 Y/A
Punt Returns:  19 Ret 211 yards 1 TD 11.5 Y/R
Kick Returns: 24 Ret 627 yards 0 TD 26.1 Y/R
Grade: A+
Cobb is one of the best players on the Packers and an example of how smart Ted Thompson can be.  He's racked up 1,527 all-purpose yards on just 105 touches.  This comes out to a whopping 14.5 yards per touch for Cobb.  He's scored 8 total TDs and is a huge part for the offensive success the Packers have seen.

Jordy Nelson
Stats-
Receiving: 43 Rec 577 yards 5 TDs 13.4 Y/R
Grade: A
Nelson started out slowly, but he's back to his old ways.  His big game came in week 6 when he racked up 122 yards and 3 TDs on 9 receptions.  He's been held back with an injury, but he continues to be a big play threat.

James Jones
Stats-
Receiving: 42 Rec 495 yards 8 TDs 11.8 Y/R
Grade: A
Jones hasn't dropped a ball all season.  Jones, whose name was synonymous with dropped-passes in Green Bay, has really stepped it up this season and is showing why he's back on track to return to the team in 2013.

Greg Jennings
Stats-
Receiving: 12 Rec 78 yards 1 TD 6.5 Y/R
Grade: INC
Jennings has been his old self this year when healthy...which has been just about never this season.  He had surgery and will hopefully be back soon.

Donald Driver
Stats-
Receiving: 8 Rec 77 yards 2 TDs 9.6 Y/R
Grade: C
Driver is getting up there in years, but that hasn't stopped him from making some key grabs.  He's been solid for the most part, but he's dropped a couple big catches. 

Jarrett Boykin
Stats-
Receiving: 3 Rec 16 yards 0 TD 5.3 Y/R
Grade: INC
Gotten in for a few plays and made a couple key snags.  Still young and raw.

Offensive Line

TJ Lang-B
Bryan Bulaga-A
Derrick Sherrod-INC
Josh Sitton-A
Evan Deitrich-Smith-C
Marshall Newhouse-C
Don Barclay-INC
Greg Van Roten-INC
Jeff Saturday-B

(Obviously it'd be boring to talk about who is the best run blocker vs pass blocker.  The scores speak for themselves.)

Defensive Line

Jerel Worthy
Stats-
2.0 Sacks 8 Tackles 1 Assist
Grade: C
As a rookie 2nd round pick, I expected a little more production, but I can't hate the guy too much.  He has gotten pressure and will only get better.

BJ Raji
Stats-
0.0 Sacks 1 PD 3 Tackles 7 Assists
Grade: D-
Gotta be hard on Raji.  Since the Super Bowl run, he's racked up 17 tackles 3 sacks, 3 passes defended, and 1 fumble recovery.  Embarrassing. 

Ryan Pickett
Stats-
0.0 Sacks 14 Tackles 17 Assists
Grade: B
Pickett has done an awesome job once again of being the thankless clog up the middle.  As Raji struggles to maintain any shred of his old self, Pickett has been old reliable.  Never amazing but never a liability.

Mike Daniels
Stats-
2.0 Sacks 1 Fumble Recovery 5 Tackles
Grade: C+
As a rookie, Daniels has contributed minimally.  He's gotten some pressure in limited action, but has been out of place several times.

CJ Wilson
Stats-
2.5 Sacks 1 Pass Defended 12 Tackles 7 Assists
Grade: C+
He's been unspectacular, but solid.  He gets blocked out of plays a lot, but has taken advantage of Clay Matthews taking attention away from him.  I think the Packers will be happy when they can replace him, but he's an experienced vet.

Mike Neal
Stats-2.0 Sacks 5 Tackles 1 Assist
Grade: D+
This will only go up if he continues his play.  He's coming off a suspension and a couple of seasons where he was injured for the year.  The jury is out, but there's no doubt he's talented.

Linebackers

AJ Hawk
Stats-
1.0 sacks 47 Tackles 29 Assists
Grade: B-
AJ Hawk is never going to wow anybody, but man is he just solid.  The guy is probably the most fundamentally sound player on defense.  No surprises with him, just hard nosed football.  In week 11 vs the Lions, he made some huge tackles and was in on a bunch of plays.  I'll take that kind of output every week.

DJ Smith
Stats-
2.0 Sacks 4 passes defended 29 tackles 10 assists
Grade: B
DJ Smith has been one of my favorite Ted Thompson draft picks.  Dude has racked up 53 tackles in just 9 starts and has been a stud.  Unfortunately, Smith is on injured reserve so we'll have to wait for 2013 to see him suit up again. 

Clay Matthews
Stats-
9.0 Sacks 1 PD 1 FF 21 Tackles 10 Assists
Grade: A
Clay has been hurt by another hamstring injury that's killed 1.5 games for him so far, but still he's back to his old self.  He's a sack machine again and that's huge.

Erik Walden
Stats-
3.0 Sacks 1 INT 3 PD 20 Tackles 12 Assists
Grade: B
Walden has been a stud in limited action.  The Packers have a ton of LBs, but due to injuries to DJ Smith, Desmond Bishop, and Nick Perry, many guys have gotten in.  Walden's play will be key for the Packer's success.

Brad Jones
Stats-
1.0 Sacks 1 FF 20 Tackles 7 Assists
Grade: C+
Jones has been limited for most of the year buried on the depth chart and moved to a new position.  Still, after 2 guys at his position were injured for the year, he hasn't been consistently good in replacement duty. 

Desmond Bishop
Stats-
None
Grade: Incomplete
Bishop's injury in preseason has disrupted the defense completely.  He's probably the most consistent player on the defense and his absence is easily noticed.

Nick Perry
Stats-
2.0 Sacks 1 PD 13 Tackles 5 Assists
Grade: C-
Perry had a few good flashes-aka the play where Andrew Luck basically died for a minute on the field-but other than that, he really struggled.  One key area I noticed Perry struggling in is pass coverage.  He was caught flatfooted a few times.  He's going to have to dedicate A LOT of time if he wants to be a starter.

Dezman Moses
Stats-
2.0 Sacks 1 PD 1 FF 3 Tackles 3 Assists 1 TD
Grade: B
His high grade for relatively low stats is based off of his high propensity for big plays in limited action.  He's been a pretty good special teams player, shown when he hustled to recover a blocked punt for a TD.  He had an excellent strip/sack of Matthew Stafford yesterday that prevented the Lions from taking a lead late in the 2nd quarter. 

Frank Zombo
Stats-
1 Assist
Grade: INC
Zombo has been a solid player over the years.  An injury has kept him out until this past week, but expect him to turn it up as the season goes on. 

Robert Francois
Stats-
NONE
Grade: D
He's a good special teamer, hence why he's on the roster still, but he hasn't done very well as a ILB.  He's had plenty of chances to move up, but an OLB moved to ILB is taking his spot.

Jamari Lattimore
Stats-
NONE
Grade: INC
Can't break into the lineup aside from special teams play.  Has been average there.

Vic So'oto
Stats-
NONE
Grade: INC
He's a pass rush specialist who struggles in all other areas of the game.  The Pack hopes to develop him into a starter one day.

Defensive Backs

Morgan Burnett
Stats-
2.0 Sacks 2 PD 1 FF 1 FR 52 Tackles 24 Assists
Grade: C
Burnett has played okay as a FS, but is not the ballhawk he was drafted to be and has been.  He racked up 3 INT last year, this year he has had 0.  He has been constantly out of position, has poor tackling form, and has let a couple INTs slip through his hands.  I admire his hustle, but that's about it.

Tramon Williams
Stats-
2 INTs 10 PD 37 Tackles 8 Assists
Grade: B+
Tramon is improving over his play last year.  The shoulder injury seems to be healed and he's back to playing shut down corner.  He dominated Brandon Marshall in week 2 and though Calvin Johnson had some big grabs vs him, the Packers definitely played a ton of zone with a safety over the top against Johnson.  This changed Williams' style of play.  The Pack was trying to avoid the big play.  It didn't work largely in part to a couple of poor defensive plays by Burnett and some luck.  Williams dominates in press-man coverage.

Charles Woodson
Stats-
1.5 Sacks 1 INT 5 PD 1 FF 25 Tackles 13 Assists
Grade: B
Woodson is aging quickly, yet he amassed those stats in just 7 games at a new position, Strong Safety.  He continues to make plays with his instincts/smarts rather than football ability.  He's solid for another couple years.

Casey Hayward
Stats-
5 INTs 14 PD 1 FF 24 Tackles 10 Assists
Grade: A+
The rookie out of Vanderbilt has been playing OUTSTANDING football.  Sure, he's hit some rookie bumps, but he's made some incredible plays and has good positional awareness.  He's in the running for DROY.

MD Jennings
Stats-
1 INT 2 PD 14 Tackles 10 Assists 1 TD
Grade: B
Jennings is still young, but he's made a few key plays.  He picked off Matthew Stafford and returned the ball 72 yards for a TD showing return skills as well as awareness when he made the play.  He's got a lot of room to improve, but he's started out well.

Sam Shields
Stats-
1 INT 3 PD 1 FR 15 Tackles 2 Assists
Grade: C-
Shields has played poorly since 2010.  He can't keep depending on his speed and has to become more fundamentally sound if he enjoys employment.

Davon House
Stats-
1.0 Sacks 3 PD 10 Tackles 5 Assists
Grade: C+
He's been injured but he's shown flashes of good play.  I'm a fan.

Jerron McMillian
Stats-
1 INT 5 PD 1 FR 9 Tackles 9 Assists
Grade: C-
He's a rookie, but with some opportunities handed to him early, he hasn't made the best of them all.  Still, he's a promising young player who will hopefully develop into a starter one day.

Jarrett Bush
Stats-
1 FR 4 Tackles
Grade: B
This grade is completely based on special teams play.  He has been absolutely dominant on special teams.

Sean Richardson
Stats-
1 Assist
Grade: INC
Burried behind 4 other guys.


Special Teams

Tim Masthay  
Stats-
48 Punts 2135 yards 1 Blocked 44.5 Y/P
Grade: A
What a wonderful feeling to have an excellent punter.  He's made some incredible kicks.

Mason Crosby
Stats-
FGM 11 FGA 18 61.1% 30/30 PAT
Grade: F
What happened, Mason?

Brett Goode
Stats-
NONE
Grade: A
Solid long snapper.  No issues and makes some good special teams plays.


My notes-

-Ted Thompson is an AMAZING GM.  For a team that went 15-1 last year, you'd think there wouldn't be much need for rookies to play, but that's not the case.  Rookies have accounted for: 6 (50%) of all INTs, 2 (66.6666%) of all defensive/ST touchdowns, 8 (24.2%) of all sacks, 2 (33.3333%) of all forced fumbles, and 62 (16%) of all tackles. 

-It's sad to see Woodson and Driver drop off.  Driver was a rookie in 1999 and got a starting gig in 2002 where he proceeded to snag 7 1,000 yard seasons.  He's had basically nothing this year.  Woodson has had at least 1 TD every season with the Packers.  He's in danger of breaking that streak.  He's still being actively used as a pass rusher, though.  1.5 is the lowest number since he recorded 0 in 2007, but it's still a lot for a 36 year old DB.  He's racked up 11.5 in 100 games with the Packers along with 38 INTs, 15 Forced fumbles, 6 fumble recoveries, and 10 total TDs

-Aaron Rodgers' last 100 yard runner?  October 10th, 2010.  Brandon Jackson ran for 115 yards on 10 carries thanks in large part to a 71 yard scamper vs the Washington Redskins.  Rodgers has had just 9 (including playoffs) games with a 100 yard rusher.

-Keeping on topic with Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Rodgers is 99th in passing yards, 92nd in pass completions, 113th in pass attempts, tied for 70th in passing TDs, 1st in career passer rating by almost 8 full points, tied for 234th in passes intercepted, 89th in times sacked, 4th in YPA, 1st in % of passes intercepted, 7th in percentage of passes gone for TDs.  Those are all-time numbers.

-Active numbers-19th in passing yards, 18th in passes completed, 19th in passes attempted, 15th in passing TDs (the youngest guy ahead of him is Ben Roethlisberger who has 50 more starts but only 23 more passing TDs), 1st in passer rating, tied for 35th in number of passes intercepted, 16th in times sacked, 1st in YPA, 1st in INT%, 1st in TD%.

-Jordy Nelson's 15 TD season in 2011 ranked as the 3rd best effort by a Packer WR.  Sterling Sharpe and Don Hutson are the only 2 with better numbers. 

-

Realistic Look At the Bounty Situation

A few weeks back, we were presented with starting information. Led by Defensive Coordinator, Gregg Williams, the New Orleans Saints engaged in a 3-year bounty program where players were compensated by Williams and other teammates for knocking other players out of the game or forcing them to be taken off on a cart. These accusations were hard to handle for any football fan. It's difficult to accept the game that we're obsessed with has such a large black eye. As the shock set in, and we sobered up to the reality, we read that 22 to 27 players were accused of participating. The NFL has the right to punish the coaches pretty much as they see fit. General Manager Mickey Loomis, Head Coach Sean Payton, and Defensive Coordinator (now with the Rams) Gregg Williams, all were dealt suspensions. Williams' suspension was the worst with the length being, "indefinite." The coaches appealed and were largely denied by commissioner Roger Goodell. Gregg Williams promptly apologized for the bounty incident and admitted guilt for the whole situation. Why is the bounty system so bad, you may ask? It seems like something that would be the norm in football. It's an inherently violent sport and the whole goal of it is to knock the crap out of your opponent. You don't win by being reserved, you win by delivering big hits and intimidating the opponent. The bounty scandal, however, was wrong on a few different angles. First, intentionally injuring someone is against the rules. There is inherent violence incorporated into football and thus if you're a player, you accept those risks. Any injury sustained in the scope of the game is assumed by the player before stepping on the field. Intentionally injuring someone is grounds for both criminal and civil suits. There was a precedent set in the 1970s by the courts after a Denver Broncos player returned an interception for a touchdown and was struck by an opposing player after the play. The case was settled in court, but the courts made it a point to say that violence of that nature was not part of the game of football and therefore would be open to the legal system. The next angle is salary cap circumvention. This provides an unfair advantage for teams that participate in a bounty system. Untaxed, unaccounted for income is against the league rules. The salary cap was implemented in 1994 to bring about competitive fairness among all franchises. Without this fairness, the league produces lopsided results as seen in the era leading up to the salary cap. From Super Bowl I to XXVIII (28 years) the league had 12 different champions. Since the league implemented the salary cap, 12 different teams have won in a span of 18 years. The difference is clear. The cap has been proven to be beneficial to many teams as it prevents one team from buying their way to a championship. The NFL has an interest in protecting the integrity of the salary cap in order to ensure that fans have optimism before every season. Finally, the people involved have tarnished the shield. What I mean by that is, they gave the league a black eye. The league has been trying to combat stigmas of being a league full of thugs and cheaters. Under Goodell, this kind of conduct has been strictly prohibited. He has been extremely harsh in handing down punishment when players get out of line. The commissioner didn't hold back with these punishments. So now we have four guys being punished. The initial reaction was, "What? What happened to 22-27 players?" Many chalked this up to the league lying. Why is there an 18-23 player discrepancy from the initial report? Why were the four players, Jonathan Vilma (16 games), Anthony Hargrove (8 games), Will Smith (4 games), and Scott Fujita (3 games) the only guys punished? Why were they the only guys? Why did some get more than others? Skepticism started to grow strong among some fans. I'm going to try my best to answer these questions. I think the NFL is lying, they won't give out information to the public or the NFLPA. What does the NFL have to hide? It would be nice to see the information. The NFL claims to have 18,000 documents and lots of first-hand accounts of the Saints bounty system. The issue arises from the first-hand accounts of the bounty system. The NFL likely offered them anonymity in return for their testimony on the Saints bounty scandal. If that's the case, the NFL has a duty to keep the identities a secret. Guys like Mike Florio from ProFootballTalk.com INSIST that the identities be leaked by the NFL. That's wrong and unethical. I doubt Florio has ever been in a football locker room. The last thing you do is rat your fellow players out. Whoever ratted on the Saints has essentially ruined their season by depriving the team of top leaders and coaches. Goodell doesn't have the authority to do this. Why can he just suspend players with no evidence? Don't you have a right to face your accuser? Yes, in the court of law you do. This is the NFL, a privately owned non-profit. They're bound by the collective bargaining agreement between them and the NFLPA. In the CBA, off-the-field issues are handled exclusively by Goodell. Cap circumvention and conduct detrimental to the league are both off-the-field issues. Goodell asked for the NFLPA to assist in player punishments, they declined. The NFL asked for the players to meet with him to defend themselves. They declined. He then imposed punishments and the NFLPA is all up in arms. The fans are buying it. I understand it's a big deal especially for a guy like Vilma who is losing an entire season of his career. The players chose to ignore the commissioner and fight his decision in the public arena instead of privately defending themselves. This whole deal stinks of posturing. Anthony Hargrove also signed a paper for the NFLPA admitting guilt in the bounty situation. They're now saying that he was misquoted and his words were exaggerated by the NFL. Again, this doesn't sit well with me. More posting? Why only 4 players? There are likely plenty of reasonable scenarios for this outcome. The most likely is that most of those players either had such a small role that it didn't matter or they gave up information in exchange for no punishment. The other explanation is probably that the league felt that suspending 27 players would be too detrimental to the league to have so many players miss time. That kind of mass suspension is unprecedented. Why the different punishments? Simple. Degree. Vilma allegedly contributed $20,000 over 2 games, Hargrove allegedly lied, and Smith and Fujita contributed in other ways. The whole bounty scheme is a big black eye on the league which is why it's so perplexing to me that so many fans are quick to dismiss the league's story in favor of the NFLPA's. The league has legal and ethical reasons to police itself for things like the bounty system. They're obligated to take the accusations seriously and that's exactly what they did. The NFLPA has an interest in protecting its constituents. Who would be more likely to lie in this situation? The NFL stands to gain nothing by making things up while the NFLPA stands to gain everything.

Free Agency Thoughts

Ah!  The time is here, NFL free agency!  Love it!  Almost a week in and so much has happened.  I'm just going to do some random thoughts for this one.

Mario Williams-Love this pickup on both ends.  Mario gets paid and goes to a pretty good situation in Buffalo.  I like the situation better in Houston, but I'm not sure they had Mario Williams money.  The Bills scored big time on this move, but one comment I have to make here is that people need to cool it with the "THIS IS LIKE WHEN THE PACKERS SIGNED REGGIE WHITE" talk.  Yes, Williams is VERY good, but Reggie White was probably one of the top 10-15 players EVER to play the game.  I'm not just saying that because he was a Packer, I'm saying that because there weren't many better than him at ANY position.  Still, I feel like this move was a win-win for both sides and Mario will contribute.  With guys like Barnett, Dareus, Byrd, and now Williams, the Bills opportunistic defense will be improved next year.

Peyton Manning-How could I not talk about this?  I really don't like this move for Manning.  Obviously it's a great deal for Denver.  Elway needed to do something to shut the Tebow lovers up.  He's a lively, exciting player, but he's not very good and the Broncos just would not beat top teams with a guy as sloppy as Tebow playing.  From the side of Peyton Manning, I just don't understand it.  The Bronco's weapons are acceptable, but not great.  I know Peyton can elevate their play, but the 49ers are the best option as far as weapons.  Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Frank Gore are awesome.  Their offensive line is awesome as well...Joe Staley, Mike Iupati, and Anthony Davis are all very good players and all high picks.  The Broncos also have good linemen, but San Fran has the whole package together.  San Fran's defense will be top 3 for the next couple of years as well.  I read that Manning didn't like the "Super Bowl or bust mentality," but if he doesn't want that, why play football?  I wonder if Manning just wants to coast for the next couple of years?

Vincent Jackson-You gotta love the fact that his deal was for 5 years, $55,555,555 (that's ocho cincos) because Josh Freeman wears 5.  Jackson is obviously excited to be in Tampa and that's great for team morale, but I'm not sure if I like this pickup by Tampa.  He'll be 30 years old in January and the Bucs have $24 million tied up in him in the first 2 years.  That's a lot of money to throw into a guy who will be 31 when that money is paid up.  The rest isn't FULLY guaranteed so the Bucs can cut him after 2 years, but I still don't like dumping that money into him.

Brandon Carr-I'm going to gush on Dallas for a bit here starting with Carr.  I love this pickup.  The Cowboys have someone to replace Newman who can come in and play rather than rolling the dice on a draftee CB.  Carr is a cheap alternative and I love the move by Dallas

Dan Connor-Dallas becomes Penn State on the interior!  Those two playing on the interior will really Sandusky the competition!

Dallas in general-Dallas has shored up holes at guard, safety, corner, and inside backer with free agency.  Suddenly, Dallas can go out and draft for potential/BPA instead of reaching for need and this will go a long way into making Dallas a competitive franchise.  Love their moves.

Laurent Robinson-Another great move by Dallas letting him go.  Robinson was asking for too much money for his true ability.  There's a reason he's been kicked around.  Sure, he had a fantastic season with Dallas, but that was because he was able to benefit from playing with Witten, Bryant, and Austin.  In Jacksonville, he has nobody to draw coverage away from him and no QB to throw to him.  Henne or Gabbert (or maybe Tebow) are nowhere close to Romo.  Look for Robinson to have an awful year.

Brandon Lloyd-This just isn't fair!  The Pats picked him up (along with Anthony Gonzalez and Donte Stallworth) and with Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez, Brady may break some records this year.  Scared.

Marques Colston-This was probably the most mature move I've ever seen out of a wide receiver.  He needs that NOLA offense as much as they need him.  He wouldn't have been successful in many other systems and he knew NOLA was his best fit and took the money.  Smart move.

Randy Moss-I don't get this move too much, but I guess it will create a buzz.  Maybe sell a few jerseys.  With the QB position up in the air, I'm not sure what the 49ers are doing.

Alex Smith-I feel genuinely bad for the guy.  He's had a different offensive coordinator EVERY season he's been in the NFL.  He has no stability and his play has suffered because of it.  I think his true ability is a little more than what he put up this year, but he'll never achieve that level.  It looks like Miami snagged David Garrard so perhaps Smith re-ups with San Fran, but I feel like their relationship has soured.

Matt Flynn-Love this move with him going to Seattle.  Bevell runs a west coast offense predicated more on the run game than conventional WCO's.  Flynn got plenty of exposure to WCOs under Philbin in GB and will likely have an easier time grasping the offense having been exposed to it for so long.  Look for Flynn to be a top 15 guy this year.  He's Aaron Rodgers with less mobility, awareness, and arm strength.  He's not going to be an elite, franchise guy, but between Cassel and Schaub wouldn't be outrageous.

Playing Tag With Matt Flynn

So we embark on the endeavor that is the NFL offesason. Right now is the dull period. The Combine is starting and free agency is starting soon. NFL teams are getting prepared for the NFL Draft as well. One interesting situation is what is going to happen with Matt Flynn, the backup QB for Green Bay. He's a free agent and there's a shortage of QBs. Obvious teams in need of a QB are Indianapolis, Cleveland, Seattle, Washington, and Miami. Will Flynn go to any one of these teams? I think he's going to Miami, but not as a free agent. I think that Green Bay will place the franchise tag Flynn and trade him. A lot of people don't agree with me, but I've been saying this for a while now and everything I have said has come true so far, so let me explain why I feel this way.

The first hint that Flynn would be tagged came back on week 17. Flynn stepped in for Rodgers who got the week off because the Packers had nothing to play for. Flynn threw for 6 TDs and just 1 INT without top WR Greg Jennings. He came from behind to beat the playoff bound Detroit Lions with Matthew Stafford at QB. Flynn had played well in his one start in 2010 for Aaron Rodgers when Rodgers was out with a concussion vs New England, but one game doesn't tell you everything. Flynn in his two starts is 1-1 and has thrown for 9TDs to just 2INTs. Obviously, Flynn isn't a terrible QB.

The tag talk was just speculation back then. We had other free agent issues to deal with. Center Scott Wells who has done a good job since Mike Flannagan left and tight end Jermichael Finley who is a matchup nightmare dispite his frequent drops were also both due to become free agents. It was pretty obvious that one of those two would be tagged. Finley and the Packers seemed far appart on the contract negotiations and he seemed destined for the tag.

A big development occurred, however. Offensive coordinator Joe Philbin signed a deal with the Miami Dolphins to become their new head coach. The Dolphins owner Stephen Ross stated during the season that he wanted a "superstar coach and quarterback." If Ross' idea of a superstar coach was Joe Philbin, maybe his idea of a superstar QB is Flynn? A lot of people speculate that Peyton Manning will head to Miami, but I don't see this happening. In my honest opinion, I think Manning is done for good with football. 4 neck procedures is a serious thing. Manning's neck seems to not be responding well to treatment. He was only able to pass the ball about 20 yards during the season. His rehab is moving along too slowly for any team to put stock into him being their starting QB on opening day.

So now, Philbin is the head coach of Miami. He's implementing the system that Flynn has learned and practiced since he was a rookie out of LSU in 2008. Miami has a good offensive structure. They have some good offensive linemen like Jake Long and Mike Pouncey. Brandon Marshall is a perennial pro bowl wide out. Reggie Bush emerged as the back people expected him to be back in 2006. The issue in Miami is the quarterback position. Miami decided not to bring QB Chad Henne back leaving Matt Moore as the only QB left on the roster worth starting. Moore did in fact spark some life into the Miami team last season, but he's extremely limited. Miami is definitely in the market for a new QB especially because they have an entirely new system now.

So what options do the Dolphins have to rectify their QB problems? Let's look into it:

1) Keep Matt Moore. Moore would be the safest choice, but also the one with the least potential. The Dolphins know what they have in Moore. There is little risk in keeping him at QB, but like I said, he's limited. The Dolphins are looking to move up.

2) Draft a QB. At either pick 8 or 9, depending on a coin flip, Miami will likely be too far back to secure a top QB without trading up. At pick 8, the two best QBs available would be Ryan Tannehill or Brandon Weeden, both guys being enormous reaches.

3) Trade or sign a FA QB. The Dolphins have very few options here. They could try and get Peyton Manning if he's released, but like I said, his health issues probably scare most teams. They could go for Jason Campbell, but he's similar to Matt Moore. He's just an average guy. The best option here would be Matt Flynn. But what will it take to get Flynn?

Depending on what the Packers decide to do with Flynn, the Dolphins will have a legitimate shot at getting Flynn. We've already established that he'd be a great fit for the offense seeing as he knows it already and he can come right in and start. Let's first assume that the Packers let him go via FA and don't tag him. The teams that can't score a great QB in the draft will likely bid for his services. Washington, Seattle, and Miami would likely be in a 3 way fight for him. This will drive his cost up enormously and thus would likely net the Packers a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2013. This would be the easiest for everybody because it doesn't involve cap maneuvering. But the Packers stand to gain more than a 3rd round pick if they tag and trade, but just how much more?

To understand the complications the tag brings, I'll have to first explain the Packers' cap situation. As I mentioned earlier, one of the biggest issues with tagging Flynn was that it would make it impossible to tag Jermichael Finley. Finley and the Packers just agreed to a 2-year deal last night without using the tag which frees up the use of the tag for either Flynn or center Scott Wells. The Packers feel that Wells is overvaluing himself. Understandably, Wells took offense to that statement and is destined to hit the open market to try to get a lucrative deal. The only player left to deal with is Matt Flynn.

The first issue with tagging Flynn is the money that comes with the tag. NFL teams are not allowed to be over the cap and with the new Finley deal, the Packers are left with roughly $4.25 million in cap room. The franchise tag number for QBs is about $14.4 million which is all guaranteed which counts 100% towards the cap, so the Packers need to free up space in order to tag him. This is where Ted Thompson being a genius comes in. Teams like the Steelers are in cap hell because they structured the deals with aging veterans poorly. They gave up way too much guaranteed money. The Packers guaranteed nothing for 2 key players, Donald Driver and Chad Clifton. Driver is due to make $5,600,000 and Clifton is due to make $5,703,125. Both can be cut and those totals would be deducted from the total team salary putting us under the cap by roughly $15,553,125. This is plenty of room to tag Flynn and it will only last a couple of days until he gets traded. Also, sadly, if Nick Collins is forced to retire, this adds another $3,450,000 of cap room with no cap hit. After the trade is completed, the Packers would easily be able to sign Driver and Clifton back to smaller deals seeing as their roles will likely be diminished in 2012.

So the Packers have cap room now and they tag Flynn, Miami shows interest and wants to make a deal. Best case scenario would be the two teams swap 1st rounders and the Dolphins get Flynn. I know that won't sit well with many of you, but it's win-win for both teams. The Packers move up and can get a top 10 pass rusher. The Dolphins stay in the first round, but secure a QB, opening up options to improve their team later in the draft. Maybe Miami throws in a 5th rounder, but I doubt it. Miami can also ship over a 2nd rounder for Flynn straight up or maybe a 3rd and a 5th. Any of these options are more desirable than letting Flynn go and collecting a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2013. Compensatory picks are given at the end of each round. A 3rd round compensatory pick is given at the end of the 3rd round, so it is essentially a 4th round pick. You also cannot trade a compensatory pick, so even if we get a 3rd rounder for Flynn this year, we can still use it to trade up and snag a better player.

The actions of the Packers and the Dolphins indicate that a trade is imminent. Matt Flynn deserves this. He was a backup to JaMarcus Russell at LSU and the Packers gave him a shot. He beat out former Packer and Bill Brian Brohm who was touted as the most pro-ready QB in the 2008 draft class. He worked hard and he earned the right to go start for another team. Let's just make sure the Packers get compensated for their work in his development as well.

How to Fix the Pro Bowl

Despite being literally the worst "All-Star" game of all the major sports, the NFL's Pro Bowl continues to dominate the ratings of All-Star games.  Baseball's All-Star game has incentive for victory because the winning conference gains home field in the World Series.  Baseball also offers fans a home run derby the night before.  Hockey adopted a fantasy draft format to select their teams and they hold a skills competition before the game.  Along with their All-Star game, the NBA holds a bunch of skills competitions and a developmental league game.  NASCAR has an All-Star race seeded by race and qualifying results and if you don't make it in that way, you can race your way in before the actual race.  The only thing about the race that matters is winning, so drivers are more reckless because they don't have to worry about losing points to other drivers.

Being the dominant force in American professional sports, the NFL is used to being the big dog.  They're dropping the ball on this one.  Right now their ratings are still higher, but they're falling and the other leagues are gaining on them.  The NFL's decision in 2007 to ditch the Pro Bowl Skills Competition is baffling to me.  They abandoned the whole "weekend" aspect of the Pro Bowl and made it into a singular event.  The NFL could profit from showing fans to the fun, relaxed side of players.  Instead, the NFL chose to show the fans the marginally exciting game.  The players are showing their fun, relaxed side.  The only problem is that it's in a situation where the fans are used to seeing the players leave their hearts on the field.  Now, they're shown truly not caring.  It's a bad image for the league.

If the NFL doesn't do something drastic, the Pro Bowl will be a thing of the past.  It's already showing signs of failing.  The NFL's decision to move it to a week before the Super Bowl instead of a week after seems like a desperation heave to garner viewers.  It's a crass move that puts ratings over quality.  The NFL doesn't care that the players from the Super Bowl teams don't participate in the Pro Bowl.  They don't care that some players will have phantom injuries and drop out.  Fans have put up with it in the short term, but as time goes by and the product becomes more and more inferior, the Pro Bowl will die a slow death. 

There are issues facing making the Pro Bowl more interesting.  The return of the skills challenge is definitely an easy way to garner some interest, but that doesn't fix how awful the game is.  The first thing the league needs to do is move the game back to where it was, a week after the Super Bowl.  This gives players 3 weeks to rest after the season and it gives the Super Bowl players an opportunity to participate.  These players are the most marketable to the average person because more than half of the country watches the Super Bowl.  If you have more participation from the people initially voted in, the games will be inherently more interesting. 

The league also needs to do something to enhance competition during the game.  They can't adopt a system like baseball where the winning conference hosts the Super Bowl.  The Super Bowl is a much more lucrative event than the World Series and requires 5+ years of planning to host one.   The NFL needs to come up with creative ways to motivate the players to care about the game.  I've tossed some ideas around in my head, and this is what I've come up with:

Skills Challenge/Voting Change
Bring back the Skills Challenge, but give meaning to it.  The league should also continue current voting practices, but change how some players make the Pro Bowl. Here's how it'd work:

The top 2 vote-getters for every position are locked in for each conference.  For example, Rodgers and Brees are the top 2 vote getters for the NFC, they're locked in.  Use the Skills Challenge to lock in the final roster spot.  The Skills Challenge will consist of the top 3 vote-getters not locked into the game for positions (4 for WRs because 2 will qualify) competing for the final roster spot.  For QBs it will be an accuracy and distance contest, for OL it will be a one-man sled race, for DL it will be a strength competition,  WRs a catching competition, RBs and DBs a speed competition, and LBs an obstacle course.  The losers get a nice Hawaii vacation and they get to participate in a flag football game with the 2 remaining QBs as the captains.

Making the Actual Game Competitive
The game itself will be harder to make more competitive.  Like I said before, it's hard to make the game more exciting because there's nothing on the line.  Win or lose, the players get paid.  My idea is modest and can easily be implemented.  Give out an award for each position.  Best QB, best LB, best WR, etc.  It will make each position more scrutinized and give the players something to play for.  It won't make the game the most compelling game ever, but it will add a twist to it.

The fans deserve better.  We made football the most popular sport in America, the least they could do is make the game more exciting for us.

The Brady Myth

The draft is quickly approaching, it's just over 2 months away.  Every year when the draft comes we see the whole tired Brady storyline about him being a 6th round pick and now he's a 3-time champ and a 2-time MVP.  Every 6th round pick that gets taken, especially QB, get's all this hype by fans of the teams that took them.  You hear it all the time, "Dude, so and so is going to be great!"  "He's a 6th round pick dude, relax."  "Brady was a 6th round pick!!"  But this logic is so unbelievably flawed. 

For this post, assume a "good" QB is a QB who starts at least 1 full season and has at least a 1:1 TD:INT ratio.  I think those are pretty modest standards for a QB.  When it's close, I'll look at other numbers (YPA, QBR, etc.) to determine whether or not the player was "good")

First, let's look at the QBs drafted in the 6th round since Brady was drafted:

2000:
Marc Bulger, New Orleans Saints
Spergon Wynn, Cleveland Browns
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Todd Husak, Washington Redskins
JaJuan Seider, San Diego Chargers

This year, we have 2 good QBs in the draft.  One is obviously Tom Brady, the other is Marc Bulger.  Bulger threw for almost 23,000 yards and 122 TDs.  Spergon Wynn threw 1 TD to 7 INTs in his career.  So right now, we're at 2-3.  3 QBs in that group weren't successful at all.

2001:
Josh Booty, Seattle Seahawks
Josh Heupel, Miami Dolphins

Neither of those guys did anything, we're now at 2-5.

2002:
J.T. O'Sullivan, New Orleans Saints
Steve Bellisari, St. Louis Rams

O'Sullivan did start 8 games, but didn't have any success.  Bellisari was converted to safety and is now a FA in the Arena Football League.  2-7.

2003:
Drew Henson, Houston Texans
Brooks Bollinger, New York Jets
Kliff Kingsbury, New England Patriots

3 guys that panned out to nothing, surprised?  I'm not.  2-10.

2004:
Andy Hall, Philadelphia Eagles
Josh Harris, Baltimore Ravens
Jim Sorgi, Indianapolis Colts
Jeff Smoker, St. Louis Rams

4 more career backups.  2-14.

2005:
Derek Anderson, Baltimore Ravens

Anderson has had limited success.  He has close to 40 starts, over 9,000 yards, and 53:55 TD:INT ratio.  I think that's good enough to be considered "good."  3-14

2006:
Reggie McNeal, Cincinnati Bengals
Bruce Gradkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Gradkowski fulfills the starts requirement, but falls a bit short on the TD:INT requirement.  His 5.7 YPA and 65.8 QBR seal the deal.  He wasn't very good.  3-16

2007:
Jordan Palmer, Washington Redskins

Not much to say here.  Inferior to his older brother, Carson.  3-17.

2008:
Colt Brennan, Washington Redskins
Andre' Woodson, New York Giants

Unspectacular, 3-19

2009:
Tom Brandstater, Denver Broncos
Mike Teel, Seattle Seahawks
Keith Null, St. Louis Rams
Curtis Painter, Indianapolis Colts

4 guys with not much going on between them.  Null and Painter both got some extended playing time, but neither performed particularly well.  3-23.

2010:
Rusty Smith, Tennessee Titans
Dan LeFevour, Chicago Bears
Joe Webb, Minnesota Vikings
Tony Pike, Carolina Panthers

Not much to say again, 3-27.

I'm leaving 2011 out because it's not fair to judge first year guys especially with no true offseason.

So let's analyze this a bit.  Out of 30 QBs taken from 2000-2010 in the 6th round, only 3 have gone on to be successful.  Just 10%.  1 of the 3 wasn't even extremely successful.  Bulger was a good starter, but was never outrageously good even with Torry Holt and Issac Bruce. 

Taking this further, let's see the current breakdown of starting NFL QBs.
Arizona: Kevin Kolb, 2nd Round
Atlanta: Matt Ryan, 1st Round
Baltimore: Joe Flacco, 1st Round
Buffalo: Ryan Fitzpatrick, 7th Round
Carolina: Cam Newton, 1st Round
Chicago: Jay Cutler, 1st Round
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton, 2nd Round
Cleveland: Colt McCoy, 3rd Round
Dallas: Tony Romo, undrafted
Denver: Tim Tebow, 1st Round
Detroit: Matthew Stafford, 1st Round
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, 1st Round
Houston: Matt Schaub, 3rd Round
Indianapolis: Peyton Manning, 1st Round
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert, 1st Round
Kansas City: Matt Cassel, 7th Round
Miami: Chad Henne, 2nd Round/Matt Moore, undrafted
Minnesota: Christian Ponder, 1st Round
New England: Tom Brady, 6th Round
New Orleans: Drew Brees, 2nd Round
New York G: Eli Manning, 1st Round
New York J: Mark Sanchez, 1st Round
Oakland Raiders: Carson Palmer, 1st Round
Philadelphia: Michael Vick, 1st Round
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round
San Diego, Philip Rivers, 1st Round
San Francisco: Alex Smith, 1st Round
Seattle: Tavaris Jackson, 2nd Round
St. Louis: Sam Bradford, 1st Round
Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman, 1st Round
Tennessee: Matt Hasselbeck, 6th Round
Washington: Rex Grossman, 1st Round/John Beck, 2nd Round

1st Rounders:  20
2nd Rounders: 6
3rd Rounders: 2
6th Rounders: 2
7th Rounders: 2
Undrafted: 2

Just 6% of the starting QBs in the NFL are 6th round picks.  59% are 1st round picks.  76% are 1st or 2nd round picks.

What round were the SB winning QBs drafted in?

Going back to 1990:
Eli Manning (2):1st Round
Aaron Rodgers: 1st Round
Drew Brees: 2nd Round
Ben Roethlisberger (2): 1st Round
Peyton Manning: 1st Round
Tom Brady (3): 6th Round
Brad Johnson: 9th Round
Trent Dilfer: 1st Round
Kurt Warner: Undrafted
John Elway (2): 1st Round
Brett Favre (2): 2nd Round
Troy Aikman (3): 1st Round
Steve Young: 1st Round
Mark Rypien: 6th Round
Jeff Hostetler: 3rd round

In 23 Super Bowls, just 4 have been won by 6th round picks.  Only 2 different players did it.  Where you're QB was picked DOES matter.  17 of the 23 winners have been 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round picks.

So remember all of this the next time some idiot starts spouting off how great his 6th round pick is.  It DOES matter where your QB is taken.  There's a chance that he may be good later on in the draft, but the majority of good QBs come from the early rounds.

My case for Aaron Rodgers as MVP

This MVP race is interesting. It's divided between two factions, one that believes that Rodgers should win because his efficiency is through the roof. The other believes that Brees should win because his gross stats and accuracy are through the roof. Me being insane, I figured I should look deeper than the gross numbers of each to really paint a picture of the two QBs. I'm going to talk about a bunch of accusations of both guys and compare stats. Enjoy guys!

Drew Brees can't win outdoors.

This is the reason I posted this. I decided to find more just because I'm insane . Brees really does decline away from the dome. He has trouble playing in the cold which may be a problem if the road to the Super Bowl goes through Lambeau. Let's look at the numbers, first indoors:

277/383 3,257 yards 72.3% completions 8.5 YPA 34 TDs 9% TD% 6 INTs 2% INT% 120.8 QB Rating

Pretty damn good if you ask me. Those are Aaron Rodgers numbers! Now outdoors.

191/279 2,219 yards 69.7% 8.1 YPA 12 TD 4% TD% 8 INT 3% INT% 96.4 QBR

Pretty sizable difference. 104 less completions 22 TDs less and 2 INTs more. The yardage is surprisingly close. Let's look at these numbers, first indoors then outdoors, spread out over 657 attempts, the number Brees had on the year.

Indoors:
473/657 72.3% 5,584 yards 8.5 YPA 58 TD 10 INT 120.6 QBR

Outdoors:
460/657 69.7% 5,321 yards 8.1 YPA 29 TD 19 INT 96.8 QBR

The difference in completions is Indoors +13. The difference in yardage is Indoors +263. Both are pretty small differences suggesting that Brees is roughly as efficient completing passes and gaining yardage in both environments. Where the significant differences lie is between the TDs and INTs. Brees is exactly twice as efficient throwing TDs indoors as outdoors. He's also almost almost twice as efficient avoiding mistakes indoors. Why the difference? I think it's clear. Those people saying Brees struggles indoors have a point.

Deep Balls

Brees' attempts 11+ yards in the air:

115/200 58% 2,494 yards 12.47 YPA 17 TDs 8 INTs 113.6 QBR

Rodgers' attempts 11+ yards in the air:

104/186 56% 2,615 yards 14.6 YPA 24 TDs 2 INTs 145.8 QBR

When you take Brees out of his element, the short ball, Rodgers reigns supreme. Some differences?
Rodgers has a 13% TD% compared to Brees' 8%
Rodgers has a 1% INT% compared to Brees' 4%
Rodgers has a full 2 yards YPA higher than Brees

Winners play well when the game is on the line

This is the most telling part of my analysis. One that uncovered a couple shocking truths about Brees. He doesn't play amazingly well when he's trailing. First off, he's thrown twice as many INTs in opponents' territory (6) than Rodgers (3). First lets look at his stats in the 4th quarter trailing by OR leading in the 4th quarter, in other words..how does he play when the game is close?

48/68 70.6% 520 yards 7.65 YPA 5 TD 1 INT 111.2 QBR

Compared to Rodgers:

25/36 69.4% 422 yards 11.72 YPA 5 TDs 0 INTs 148.4 QBR

While Brees played well, Rodgers played lights out. No mistakes. He trailed by 98 yards with 32 less attempts and scored 5 TDs. He had an astounding 11.72 YPA in those throws. That's the mark of a player whose team has full faith in him with the game on the line. Which comes to my next point: Rodgers never turned the ball over when trailing this year. Let's look at Brees' stats when trailing:

114/210 69% 1847 yards 8.80 YPA 14 TD 7 INT 104.2 QBR

Not bad, but Rodgers still outplayed him when trailing.

78/118 66% 1,093 yards 9.26 YPA 9 TD 0 INT 119.8 QBR

Rodgers scores much more efficiently and did not turn the ball over at all. His low-ish QB Rating is likely from the lower comp %.

How do both of them fare when the game is close, but they're winning? Here are their numbers when they're winning at any point in the game by 1 to 7 points:

Brees:
158/224 70.5% 1,771 yards 7.91 YPA 10 TDs 6 INTs 97.5 QBR

Rodgers:
109/167 65% 1,494 yards 8.95 YPA 14 TDs 1 INT 119.2 QBR

Again, Brees throws more INTs and less TDs with more attempts while Rodgers has a higher YPA. Truth is, Brees is inferior to Rodgers in most situations....except...

Brees runs up the score.

There, I said it. It's true. He's a compiler. Let the numbers from games they won by 15+ explain for me:

Brees:
164/224 73.2% 2,066 yards 9.22 YPA 26 TDs 3 INTs 134.6 QBR

Rodgers:
87/127 68.5% 1,255 yards 9.88 YPA 13 TDs 3 INTs 124.6 QBR

Now Brees can keep up with Rodgers, when he's kicking people when they're down. But who is the QB who REALLY helps his team? The answer has to be Rodgers. Rodgers doesn't run up the score. Rodgers doesn't stay in and throw TD passes when he doesn't have to. Brees does. Let's look at their numbers in games where they won by 14 or less or lost.

Brees:
304/433 70% 3,410 yards 7.88 YPA 20 TDs 11 INTs 98.2 QBR

Rodgers:
256/375 68% 3,388 yards 9.03 YPA 32 TDs 3 INTs 121.7 QBR

So when you take the blowout wins and you put in the games where the QBs had to play better, Rodgers did play better. Rodgers was the better QB this year and it had nothing to do with being a system QB. Rodgers just had the better year. Rodgers went out, won games, and sat down like I've been saying all along. Brees hung in and threw when he didn't need to and his numbers reflect that. In close games, Rodgers would have STILL broken the QB rating record. Brees would have had an okay season. Slightly above average. See the difference now?

Year End Awards

It's that time of the year again! The time when I don't shut up for the entire offseason!

Plenty of crazy stuff happened this year, and my Packers are 15-1 and comfortably had the #1 seed locked up a couple weeks ago. First time since the 90s the Packers were this good! I'm not here to talk about the Packers, though...well....okay...maybe a little. Today we're going to look at all of the end of the year awards. I'm going to include all of the normal ones PLUS I'm going to make a ton of new ones up.

MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

I'm sure everyone guessed I would pick A-Rod. Let me convince you why I picked him. Let's take a look at his stat line, first normal and then more in depth.

343/502 68.3% 4,643 yards 45 TDs 9.0% TD% 6 INTs 1.2% INT% 9.2 YPA 122.5 QB Rating.

These stats are good enough to win the MVP, but some may argue Brees had a better year. Not really. It's actually not even close. Rodgers sat 9 quarters total during the season when the Packers were ahead. He has just 98 attempts in the 4th quarter, about 4.6 a game. Brees stayed in for the majority of all games. Brees' stats were volume. Let's look at Brees' stat line in depth.

468/657 71.2% 5,476 yards 46 TDs 7.0% TD% 14 INT 2.1% INT% 8.2 YPA 110.6 QB Rating.

On the surface, it looks better than Rodgers' season. If you look closely though, you'll see the mark of volume stats and excessive throwing. First, Brees completes a higher percentage of passes, and 125 more total, yet throws 1 more TD. He would have been below that number substantially had he not stayed in VS Carolina despite them being up by a wide margin. They also had him stay in vs Atlanta and throw another TD pass despite being up by a lot in order to secure the passing yardage record in week 15. Despite earning the record, Brees played almost the entire game the next week.

The biggest mark of a good QB is how efficient they are. Rodgers can score at will. Brees can to, to an extent, but Rodgers is better at it. 9% of Rodgers' passes ended up as a TD while only 7% of Brees' did. A full 2% difference. Brees out gained Rodgers through the air by 833 yards. Rodgers had almost a full yard more per attempt though, 9.2 to 8.3. Rodgers would need 596 attempts to beat Brees' total, a full 61 attempts less than Brees. Rodgers was also markedly safer with the ball tossing just 6 INTs compared to Brees' 14. 2.1% of Brees' throws were intercepted while only 1.2% of Rodgers' were picked off. Rodgers also broke the record for best QB rating ever in a season. Rodgers is the definition of efficient.

If you're not convinced, Rodgers is also a threat on his feet. He out gained Brees on the ground 267 yards to 86 and scored 3 TDs to Brees' 1.

It's pretty obvious who the clearcut winner should be. I won't even get into how superior Brees' running game and offensive line are.

Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

As much bashing as I just did, Brees deserves a ton of credit for what he accomplished. He did break a record that's almost 30 years old. What diminishes this accomplishment is that Brady also broke Marino's record and is now second behind Brees. People can clearly see that Brees unnecessarily racked up yardage. Matthew Stafford also racked up over 5,000 yards on the season.

Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings don't have much to be happy about. The Donovan McNabb experiment didn't work out (though honestly, nobody though it would). Adrian Peterson blew out his knee and it will be questionable whether or not he is able to be ready for the opener next September. Percy Harvin continues to battle injuries. The secondary is swiss cheese. The offensive line is horrid. Pretty much the only thing the Vikings have going for them is DE Jared Allen. Allen played his heart out all year racking up 66 tackles, 22 sacks, 4 fumbles forced, 4 fumbles recovered, 3 passes defended and 1 INT. Mind you these sacks came on a team that was ALWAYS trailing this year. That to me makes his accomplishment even bigger.

I understand he probably won't win it. Who will win it is Terrell Suggs just because he's Terrell Suggs and he's on a winning team. If you want to hear me bitch about how being on a winning team shouldn't automatically qualify you for an award and being on a losing team shouldn't automatically disqualify you, look back in the archives, I did an angry post about it. Jared Allen was one of the few good defenders in a season where defense was almost absent. 5 teams scored over 500 points.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

Surprising the league in his first 2 games, Cam Newton threw for over 800 yards. He quickly quieted doubters, like myself, with his play. While his hand cooled down a bit, his performance never did. Take a look at his passing numbers.

310/517 60% 4,051 yards 21 TD 4.1 TD% 17 INT 3.3 INT% 7.8 YPA 84.5 QB Rating.

Andy Dalton had slightly better QB numbers and his team won more than Carolina, so many must be wondering why I chose Newton over Dalton. Newton's rushing ability crushes Dalton's chance at the award. Newton rushed for 706 yards and 14 TDs with a 5.6 YPC. Unreal for a rookie.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller, LB, Denver Broncos

Von Miller is just a pure animal. In his first season as a pro, he started 15 games, missing one with injury, and performed at an All-Pro level. Miller racked up 51 tackles and 11.5 sacks. He also defended 4 passes and forced 3 fumbles. Miller will be a force for years to come and he's already established himself as one of the better players in the NFL.

Comeback Player of the Year: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

I know some may feel that the comeback player of the year should be an established player who was injured and then came back. While Stafford wasn't "established," he certainly showed at ton of potential in his prior two years starting. If you don't believe me, go back to the Cleveland-Detroit game from 2009 and watched the Sound FX clip of Stafford hurting his shoulder. He's on the ground in pain, screaming. He comes off for one play, goes back in the next, throws the game winning TD. The kid has heart and potential. Stafford came back in a huge way this year, let's see his numbers:

421/663 5,038 yards 63.5% 41 TDs 6.2 TD% 16 INT 2.4 INT% 7.6 YPA 97.2 QB Rating.

He's quickly established himself as a top 5-10 QB after being out for the last 2 seasons with an injury. To me that's a bigger comeback than most we've seen.

Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers

I'd love to say McCarthy, but he already had an awesome team from last year. Harbaugh came in on his first season as a head coach and turned the 49ers into a dominant team. No question on this one. Harbaugh deserves it.

Now, for some fun awards:

The NASA Astronaut Award: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

That leap vs Arizona was unreal.

The Ron Jeremy Giant Package Award: James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers

No questioning his manhood after that hit he put on Colt McCoy.

The Payton Hillis White Guy Excelling at a Skill Position Award: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers

Wes Welker is the man, but Jordy Nelson scoring 15 TDs is unreal.

The Ryan Leaf Meltdown Award: The Entire New York Jets Franchise

Unreal how nuclear that locker room can get.

The Ryan Leaf Overhyped Draft Prospect Award: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

He turns his back to the freaking pass rush!

The Chicago Cubs Unlucky Franchise Award: The Houston Texans

They win their first division title and advance to the playoffs only to lose their starting QB.

The Tim Couch Awful QB Award: Caleb Hanie, QB, Chicago Bears

He was just terrible this year.

The Brett Favre Hype and Slight Delivery Only To Regress Back to Being Mediocre Award: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills

He played so well so early. Losing Fred Jackson couldn't have helped, but he was playing miserable at some points.

The John Elway Overrated Award: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

He's not awful. He's not great. He's a serviceable starter. Every postseason, without fail, he's given the nickname "Matty Ice." He doesn't deserve to get a nickname predicated upon him being "cool" under pressure. A good nickname for him is "Matt."