This MVP race is interesting. It's divided between two factions, one that believes that Rodgers should win because his efficiency is through the roof. The other believes that Brees should win because his gross stats and accuracy are through the roof. Me being insane, I figured I should look deeper than the gross numbers of each to really paint a picture of the two QBs. I'm going to talk about a bunch of accusations of both guys and compare stats. Enjoy guys!
Drew Brees can't win outdoors.
This is the reason I posted this. I decided to find more just because I'm insane . Brees really does decline away from the dome. He has trouble playing in the cold which may be a problem if the road to the Super Bowl goes through Lambeau. Let's look at the numbers, first indoors:
277/383 3,257 yards 72.3% completions 8.5 YPA 34 TDs 9% TD% 6 INTs 2% INT% 120.8 QB Rating
Pretty damn good if you ask me. Those are Aaron Rodgers numbers! Now outdoors.
191/279 2,219 yards 69.7% 8.1 YPA 12 TD 4% TD% 8 INT 3% INT% 96.4 QBR
Pretty sizable difference. 104 less completions 22 TDs less and 2 INTs more. The yardage is surprisingly close. Let's look at these numbers, first indoors then outdoors, spread out over 657 attempts, the number Brees had on the year.
Indoors:
473/657 72.3% 5,584 yards 8.5 YPA 58 TD 10 INT 120.6 QBR
Outdoors:
460/657 69.7% 5,321 yards 8.1 YPA 29 TD 19 INT 96.8 QBR
The difference in completions is Indoors +13. The difference in yardage is Indoors +263. Both are pretty small differences suggesting that Brees is roughly as efficient completing passes and gaining yardage in both environments. Where the significant differences lie is between the TDs and INTs. Brees is exactly twice as efficient throwing TDs indoors as outdoors. He's also almost almost twice as efficient avoiding mistakes indoors. Why the difference? I think it's clear. Those people saying Brees struggles indoors have a point.
Deep Balls
Brees' attempts 11+ yards in the air:
115/200 58% 2,494 yards 12.47 YPA 17 TDs 8 INTs 113.6 QBR
Rodgers' attempts 11+ yards in the air:
104/186 56% 2,615 yards 14.6 YPA 24 TDs 2 INTs 145.8 QBR
When you take Brees out of his element, the short ball, Rodgers reigns supreme. Some differences?
Rodgers has a 13% TD% compared to Brees' 8%
Rodgers has a 1% INT% compared to Brees' 4%
Rodgers has a full 2 yards YPA higher than Brees
Winners play well when the game is on the line
This is the most telling part of my analysis. One that uncovered a couple shocking truths about Brees. He doesn't play amazingly well when he's trailing. First off, he's thrown twice as many INTs in opponents' territory (6) than Rodgers (3). First lets look at his stats in the 4th quarter trailing by OR leading in the 4th quarter, in other words..how does he play when the game is close?
48/68 70.6% 520 yards 7.65 YPA 5 TD 1 INT 111.2 QBR
Compared to Rodgers:
25/36 69.4% 422 yards 11.72 YPA 5 TDs 0 INTs 148.4 QBR
While Brees played well, Rodgers played lights out. No mistakes. He trailed by 98 yards with 32 less attempts and scored 5 TDs. He had an astounding 11.72 YPA in those throws. That's the mark of a player whose team has full faith in him with the game on the line. Which comes to my next point: Rodgers never turned the ball over when trailing this year. Let's look at Brees' stats when trailing:
114/210 69% 1847 yards 8.80 YPA 14 TD 7 INT 104.2 QBR
Not bad, but Rodgers still outplayed him when trailing.
78/118 66% 1,093 yards 9.26 YPA 9 TD 0 INT 119.8 QBR
Rodgers scores much more efficiently and did not turn the ball over at all. His low-ish QB Rating is likely from the lower comp %.
How do both of them fare when the game is close, but they're winning? Here are their numbers when they're winning at any point in the game by 1 to 7 points:
Brees:
158/224 70.5% 1,771 yards 7.91 YPA 10 TDs 6 INTs 97.5 QBR
Rodgers:
109/167 65% 1,494 yards 8.95 YPA 14 TDs 1 INT 119.2 QBR
Again, Brees throws more INTs and less TDs with more attempts while Rodgers has a higher YPA. Truth is, Brees is inferior to Rodgers in most situations....except...
Brees runs up the score.
There, I said it. It's true. He's a compiler. Let the numbers from games they won by 15+ explain for me:
Brees:
164/224 73.2% 2,066 yards 9.22 YPA 26 TDs 3 INTs 134.6 QBR
Rodgers:
87/127 68.5% 1,255 yards 9.88 YPA 13 TDs 3 INTs 124.6 QBR
Now Brees can keep up with Rodgers, when he's kicking people when they're down. But who is the QB who REALLY helps his team? The answer has to be Rodgers. Rodgers doesn't run up the score. Rodgers doesn't stay in and throw TD passes when he doesn't have to. Brees does. Let's look at their numbers in games where they won by 14 or less or lost.
Brees:
304/433 70% 3,410 yards 7.88 YPA 20 TDs 11 INTs 98.2 QBR
Rodgers:
256/375 68% 3,388 yards 9.03 YPA 32 TDs 3 INTs 121.7 QBR
So when you take the blowout wins and you put in the games where the QBs had to play better, Rodgers did play better. Rodgers was the better QB this year and it had nothing to do with being a system QB. Rodgers just had the better year. Rodgers went out, won games, and sat down like I've been saying all along. Brees hung in and threw when he didn't need to and his numbers reflect that. In close games, Rodgers would have STILL broken the QB rating record. Brees would have had an okay season. Slightly above average. See the difference now?
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Year End Awards
It's that time of the year again! The time when I don't shut up for the entire offseason!
Plenty of crazy stuff happened this year, and my Packers are 15-1 and comfortably had the #1 seed locked up a couple weeks ago. First time since the 90s the Packers were this good! I'm not here to talk about the Packers, though...well....okay...maybe a little. Today we're going to look at all of the end of the year awards. I'm going to include all of the normal ones PLUS I'm going to make a ton of new ones up.
MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
I'm sure everyone guessed I would pick A-Rod. Let me convince you why I picked him. Let's take a look at his stat line, first normal and then more in depth.
343/502 68.3% 4,643 yards 45 TDs 9.0% TD% 6 INTs 1.2% INT% 9.2 YPA 122.5 QB Rating.
These stats are good enough to win the MVP, but some may argue Brees had a better year. Not really. It's actually not even close. Rodgers sat 9 quarters total during the season when the Packers were ahead. He has just 98 attempts in the 4th quarter, about 4.6 a game. Brees stayed in for the majority of all games. Brees' stats were volume. Let's look at Brees' stat line in depth.
468/657 71.2% 5,476 yards 46 TDs 7.0% TD% 14 INT 2.1% INT% 8.2 YPA 110.6 QB Rating.
On the surface, it looks better than Rodgers' season. If you look closely though, you'll see the mark of volume stats and excessive throwing. First, Brees completes a higher percentage of passes, and 125 more total, yet throws 1 more TD. He would have been below that number substantially had he not stayed in VS Carolina despite them being up by a wide margin. They also had him stay in vs Atlanta and throw another TD pass despite being up by a lot in order to secure the passing yardage record in week 15. Despite earning the record, Brees played almost the entire game the next week.
The biggest mark of a good QB is how efficient they are. Rodgers can score at will. Brees can to, to an extent, but Rodgers is better at it. 9% of Rodgers' passes ended up as a TD while only 7% of Brees' did. A full 2% difference. Brees out gained Rodgers through the air by 833 yards. Rodgers had almost a full yard more per attempt though, 9.2 to 8.3. Rodgers would need 596 attempts to beat Brees' total, a full 61 attempts less than Brees. Rodgers was also markedly safer with the ball tossing just 6 INTs compared to Brees' 14. 2.1% of Brees' throws were intercepted while only 1.2% of Rodgers' were picked off. Rodgers also broke the record for best QB rating ever in a season. Rodgers is the definition of efficient.
If you're not convinced, Rodgers is also a threat on his feet. He out gained Brees on the ground 267 yards to 86 and scored 3 TDs to Brees' 1.
It's pretty obvious who the clearcut winner should be. I won't even get into how superior Brees' running game and offensive line are.
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
As much bashing as I just did, Brees deserves a ton of credit for what he accomplished. He did break a record that's almost 30 years old. What diminishes this accomplishment is that Brady also broke Marino's record and is now second behind Brees. People can clearly see that Brees unnecessarily racked up yardage. Matthew Stafford also racked up over 5,000 yards on the season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings don't have much to be happy about. The Donovan McNabb experiment didn't work out (though honestly, nobody though it would). Adrian Peterson blew out his knee and it will be questionable whether or not he is able to be ready for the opener next September. Percy Harvin continues to battle injuries. The secondary is swiss cheese. The offensive line is horrid. Pretty much the only thing the Vikings have going for them is DE Jared Allen. Allen played his heart out all year racking up 66 tackles, 22 sacks, 4 fumbles forced, 4 fumbles recovered, 3 passes defended and 1 INT. Mind you these sacks came on a team that was ALWAYS trailing this year. That to me makes his accomplishment even bigger.
I understand he probably won't win it. Who will win it is Terrell Suggs just because he's Terrell Suggs and he's on a winning team. If you want to hear me bitch about how being on a winning team shouldn't automatically qualify you for an award and being on a losing team shouldn't automatically disqualify you, look back in the archives, I did an angry post about it. Jared Allen was one of the few good defenders in a season where defense was almost absent. 5 teams scored over 500 points.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Surprising the league in his first 2 games, Cam Newton threw for over 800 yards. He quickly quieted doubters, like myself, with his play. While his hand cooled down a bit, his performance never did. Take a look at his passing numbers.
310/517 60% 4,051 yards 21 TD 4.1 TD% 17 INT 3.3 INT% 7.8 YPA 84.5 QB Rating.
Andy Dalton had slightly better QB numbers and his team won more than Carolina, so many must be wondering why I chose Newton over Dalton. Newton's rushing ability crushes Dalton's chance at the award. Newton rushed for 706 yards and 14 TDs with a 5.6 YPC. Unreal for a rookie.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller, LB, Denver Broncos
Von Miller is just a pure animal. In his first season as a pro, he started 15 games, missing one with injury, and performed at an All-Pro level. Miller racked up 51 tackles and 11.5 sacks. He also defended 4 passes and forced 3 fumbles. Miller will be a force for years to come and he's already established himself as one of the better players in the NFL.
Comeback Player of the Year: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
I know some may feel that the comeback player of the year should be an established player who was injured and then came back. While Stafford wasn't "established," he certainly showed at ton of potential in his prior two years starting. If you don't believe me, go back to the Cleveland-Detroit game from 2009 and watched the Sound FX clip of Stafford hurting his shoulder. He's on the ground in pain, screaming. He comes off for one play, goes back in the next, throws the game winning TD. The kid has heart and potential. Stafford came back in a huge way this year, let's see his numbers:
421/663 5,038 yards 63.5% 41 TDs 6.2 TD% 16 INT 2.4 INT% 7.6 YPA 97.2 QB Rating.
He's quickly established himself as a top 5-10 QB after being out for the last 2 seasons with an injury. To me that's a bigger comeback than most we've seen.
Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers
I'd love to say McCarthy, but he already had an awesome team from last year. Harbaugh came in on his first season as a head coach and turned the 49ers into a dominant team. No question on this one. Harbaugh deserves it.
Now, for some fun awards:
The NASA Astronaut Award: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
That leap vs Arizona was unreal.
The Ron Jeremy Giant Package Award: James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
No questioning his manhood after that hit he put on Colt McCoy.
The Payton Hillis White Guy Excelling at a Skill Position Award: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
Wes Welker is the man, but Jordy Nelson scoring 15 TDs is unreal.
The Ryan Leaf Meltdown Award: The Entire New York Jets Franchise
Unreal how nuclear that locker room can get.
The Ryan Leaf Overhyped Draft Prospect Award: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
He turns his back to the freaking pass rush!
The Chicago Cubs Unlucky Franchise Award: The Houston Texans
They win their first division title and advance to the playoffs only to lose their starting QB.
The Tim Couch Awful QB Award: Caleb Hanie, QB, Chicago Bears
He was just terrible this year.
The Brett Favre Hype and Slight Delivery Only To Regress Back to Being Mediocre Award: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills
He played so well so early. Losing Fred Jackson couldn't have helped, but he was playing miserable at some points.
The John Elway Overrated Award: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
He's not awful. He's not great. He's a serviceable starter. Every postseason, without fail, he's given the nickname "Matty Ice." He doesn't deserve to get a nickname predicated upon him being "cool" under pressure. A good nickname for him is "Matt."
Plenty of crazy stuff happened this year, and my Packers are 15-1 and comfortably had the #1 seed locked up a couple weeks ago. First time since the 90s the Packers were this good! I'm not here to talk about the Packers, though...well....okay...maybe a little. Today we're going to look at all of the end of the year awards. I'm going to include all of the normal ones PLUS I'm going to make a ton of new ones up.
MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
I'm sure everyone guessed I would pick A-Rod. Let me convince you why I picked him. Let's take a look at his stat line, first normal and then more in depth.
343/502 68.3% 4,643 yards 45 TDs 9.0% TD% 6 INTs 1.2% INT% 9.2 YPA 122.5 QB Rating.
These stats are good enough to win the MVP, but some may argue Brees had a better year. Not really. It's actually not even close. Rodgers sat 9 quarters total during the season when the Packers were ahead. He has just 98 attempts in the 4th quarter, about 4.6 a game. Brees stayed in for the majority of all games. Brees' stats were volume. Let's look at Brees' stat line in depth.
468/657 71.2% 5,476 yards 46 TDs 7.0% TD% 14 INT 2.1% INT% 8.2 YPA 110.6 QB Rating.
On the surface, it looks better than Rodgers' season. If you look closely though, you'll see the mark of volume stats and excessive throwing. First, Brees completes a higher percentage of passes, and 125 more total, yet throws 1 more TD. He would have been below that number substantially had he not stayed in VS Carolina despite them being up by a wide margin. They also had him stay in vs Atlanta and throw another TD pass despite being up by a lot in order to secure the passing yardage record in week 15. Despite earning the record, Brees played almost the entire game the next week.
The biggest mark of a good QB is how efficient they are. Rodgers can score at will. Brees can to, to an extent, but Rodgers is better at it. 9% of Rodgers' passes ended up as a TD while only 7% of Brees' did. A full 2% difference. Brees out gained Rodgers through the air by 833 yards. Rodgers had almost a full yard more per attempt though, 9.2 to 8.3. Rodgers would need 596 attempts to beat Brees' total, a full 61 attempts less than Brees. Rodgers was also markedly safer with the ball tossing just 6 INTs compared to Brees' 14. 2.1% of Brees' throws were intercepted while only 1.2% of Rodgers' were picked off. Rodgers also broke the record for best QB rating ever in a season. Rodgers is the definition of efficient.
If you're not convinced, Rodgers is also a threat on his feet. He out gained Brees on the ground 267 yards to 86 and scored 3 TDs to Brees' 1.
It's pretty obvious who the clearcut winner should be. I won't even get into how superior Brees' running game and offensive line are.
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
As much bashing as I just did, Brees deserves a ton of credit for what he accomplished. He did break a record that's almost 30 years old. What diminishes this accomplishment is that Brady also broke Marino's record and is now second behind Brees. People can clearly see that Brees unnecessarily racked up yardage. Matthew Stafford also racked up over 5,000 yards on the season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings don't have much to be happy about. The Donovan McNabb experiment didn't work out (though honestly, nobody though it would). Adrian Peterson blew out his knee and it will be questionable whether or not he is able to be ready for the opener next September. Percy Harvin continues to battle injuries. The secondary is swiss cheese. The offensive line is horrid. Pretty much the only thing the Vikings have going for them is DE Jared Allen. Allen played his heart out all year racking up 66 tackles, 22 sacks, 4 fumbles forced, 4 fumbles recovered, 3 passes defended and 1 INT. Mind you these sacks came on a team that was ALWAYS trailing this year. That to me makes his accomplishment even bigger.
I understand he probably won't win it. Who will win it is Terrell Suggs just because he's Terrell Suggs and he's on a winning team. If you want to hear me bitch about how being on a winning team shouldn't automatically qualify you for an award and being on a losing team shouldn't automatically disqualify you, look back in the archives, I did an angry post about it. Jared Allen was one of the few good defenders in a season where defense was almost absent. 5 teams scored over 500 points.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Surprising the league in his first 2 games, Cam Newton threw for over 800 yards. He quickly quieted doubters, like myself, with his play. While his hand cooled down a bit, his performance never did. Take a look at his passing numbers.
310/517 60% 4,051 yards 21 TD 4.1 TD% 17 INT 3.3 INT% 7.8 YPA 84.5 QB Rating.
Andy Dalton had slightly better QB numbers and his team won more than Carolina, so many must be wondering why I chose Newton over Dalton. Newton's rushing ability crushes Dalton's chance at the award. Newton rushed for 706 yards and 14 TDs with a 5.6 YPC. Unreal for a rookie.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller, LB, Denver Broncos
Von Miller is just a pure animal. In his first season as a pro, he started 15 games, missing one with injury, and performed at an All-Pro level. Miller racked up 51 tackles and 11.5 sacks. He also defended 4 passes and forced 3 fumbles. Miller will be a force for years to come and he's already established himself as one of the better players in the NFL.
Comeback Player of the Year: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
I know some may feel that the comeback player of the year should be an established player who was injured and then came back. While Stafford wasn't "established," he certainly showed at ton of potential in his prior two years starting. If you don't believe me, go back to the Cleveland-Detroit game from 2009 and watched the Sound FX clip of Stafford hurting his shoulder. He's on the ground in pain, screaming. He comes off for one play, goes back in the next, throws the game winning TD. The kid has heart and potential. Stafford came back in a huge way this year, let's see his numbers:
421/663 5,038 yards 63.5% 41 TDs 6.2 TD% 16 INT 2.4 INT% 7.6 YPA 97.2 QB Rating.
He's quickly established himself as a top 5-10 QB after being out for the last 2 seasons with an injury. To me that's a bigger comeback than most we've seen.
Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers
I'd love to say McCarthy, but he already had an awesome team from last year. Harbaugh came in on his first season as a head coach and turned the 49ers into a dominant team. No question on this one. Harbaugh deserves it.
Now, for some fun awards:
The NASA Astronaut Award: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
That leap vs Arizona was unreal.
The Ron Jeremy Giant Package Award: James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
No questioning his manhood after that hit he put on Colt McCoy.
The Payton Hillis White Guy Excelling at a Skill Position Award: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
Wes Welker is the man, but Jordy Nelson scoring 15 TDs is unreal.
The Ryan Leaf Meltdown Award: The Entire New York Jets Franchise
Unreal how nuclear that locker room can get.
The Ryan Leaf Overhyped Draft Prospect Award: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
He turns his back to the freaking pass rush!
The Chicago Cubs Unlucky Franchise Award: The Houston Texans
They win their first division title and advance to the playoffs only to lose their starting QB.
The Tim Couch Awful QB Award: Caleb Hanie, QB, Chicago Bears
He was just terrible this year.
The Brett Favre Hype and Slight Delivery Only To Regress Back to Being Mediocre Award: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills
He played so well so early. Losing Fred Jackson couldn't have helped, but he was playing miserable at some points.
The John Elway Overrated Award: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
He's not awful. He's not great. He's a serviceable starter. Every postseason, without fail, he's given the nickname "Matty Ice." He doesn't deserve to get a nickname predicated upon him being "cool" under pressure. A good nickname for him is "Matt."
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