Just How Bad Are the Jets' Cap Issues?

I've had fun bashing the Jets in the past, but as I mentioned in my last post, I actually feel bad for their fans.  GM Mike Tannenbaum and the rest of the front office have crafted some of the worst contracts in the league.  The Jets have just 40 players under contract and are $18 million OVER the cap.  I talked about Mark Sanchez last time, but let's go into greater detail about what options the Jets have.  Using data gathered from sportrac.com, I've determined that the jets have 4 options for Sanchez:

• Cut Sanchez.  This isn't exactly desirable, though.  Sanchez has a guaranteed base salary of $8.25 million in 2013.  He's also owed $2.5 million for his signing bonus from his rookie contract as well as $6.4 million accelerated from his extension contract's signing bonus.  $8.25+$2.5+$6.4=$17,150,000 cap hit in 2013
• Roster Sanchez.  Sanchez is owed his $8.25 million base.  He's also owed the $2.5 million bonus from his old contract and 1/4 of his signing bonus from his extension, or $1.6 million. He's also owed a $500,000 workout bonus.  $8.25+$2.5+$1.6+$500k=$12,850,000 cap hit in 2013
• Declare Sanchez a June 1st cut.  How this works is that Sanchez is treated like he's on the roster for 2013 which means that any bonuses he acquired at the time of the cut are counted against the 2013 cap and any bonuses that are in the future come in 2014.  Essentially, the Jets would have to pay his $8.25 million base, $2.5 million bonus, and $1.6 million bonus from the proration.  The Jets would be off the hook for the $500,000 workout bonus.  $4.8 million (3/4 of the extension signing bonus) would be accelerated against the 2014 cap.  $8.25+$2.5+$1.6=$12,350,000 cap hit in 2013, plus a $4,800,000 cap hit in 2013
• Trade Sanchez.  When a player is given a signing bonus, that money is paid up front.  That money is then prorated over the duration of the contract.  The team is obligated to pay for that signing bonus regardless of what happens to the player.  Sanchez is owed a total of $8.9 million in bonuses if he is traded.  This would be the easiest option if it were just $8.9 million the Jets had to worry about.  Sanchez, unfortunately, also has a base salary of $8.25 million in 2013 which IS guaranteed.  While that money IS transferable, it will be hard to convince another team that a QB who has severely underperformed is worth $8.25 million.  The Jets will likely eat some of that money IF, and that's a big if, another team is willing to trade for him.  You're looking at anywhere from $4-5 million the Jets would need to eat to trade Sanchez.  $8.9+$4-5=$12,900,000-$13,900,000 cap hit in 2013

Given those options, my personal feeling is that the Jets will in fact declare him a June 1st cut.  They don't want him on the roster anymore and they NEED cap space.  This move will put the Jets $500,000 closer to being under cap, but it leaves them now with 39 players under contract in 2013.  Let's look at some more options for the Jets to cut.  As I go on and list players, I will show their individual savings in green as well as the total cap room in red.

• Calvin Pace: $5,810,000 base salary, $3,013,333 signing bonus, $2,500,000 roster bons, $500,000 workout bonus.  If the Jets cut him, $3,013,333-$5,810,000-$2,500,000-$500,000=$5,796,667 savings, -$12,203,333 cap room if cut.
• Santonio Holmes: $11,000,000 base salary, $1,250,000 signing bonus, $250,000 workout bonus.  Contract through 2015.  If the Jets cut Holmes, $3,750,000-$11,000,000-$250,000=$7,500,000 savings, -$10,500,000 cap room if cut, -$4,703,333 cap room if Holmes AND Pace are cut.
• Eric Smith: $2,400,000 base salary, $600,000 workout bonus.  If the Jets Cut him, -$2,400,000-$600,000=$3,000,000 savings, -$15,000,000 cap room if cut, -$1,703,333 cap room if Holmes, Pace, AND Smith are cut.
• Bart Scott: $6,900,000 base salary, $1,500,000 signing bonus, $250,000 roster bonus.  If the Jets cut him, $1,500,000-$250,000-$6,900,000=$5,650,000 savings, -$12,350,000 cap room if cut, +$3,946,667 if Holmes, Pace, Smith, and Scott are cut.
• David Harris: $10,900,000 base salary, $2,000,000 signing bonus, $100,000 roster bonus.  Contract through 2014.  If the Jets cut Harris, $4,000,000-$10,900,000-$100,000=$7,000,000 savings, -$11,000,000 cap room if cut, +$10,946,667 cap room if Holmes, Pace, Smith, Scott, and Harris are cut.
• Jason Smith: $750,000 base salary, $11,250,000 roster bonus.  If the Jets cut Smith, -$750,000-$11,250,000=$12,000,000 savings, -$7,000,000 cap room if cut, +$22,946,667 cap room if Holmes, Pace, Smith, Scott, and Harris are cut.

Unfortunately, I was unable to get data on Tim Tebow's contract, but I would have thrown him in there.  If you designate Sanchez a June 1st cut, you can add another $500,000 to that cap number and it would come in at $23,446,667 freed up.  The Jets would be down to 33 players under contract, but that leaves $1.1 million PER PLAYER available to get up to 53 guys.  As it stands without cutting anybody, the Jets would have -$1,384,615.4 per player to sign the remaining 13 needed to get to 53.  The Jets are in for a rude awakening in 2013.  They will indeed be a rebuilding team.  Rex Ryan will likely be gone as well as Tannenbaum.  Say goodbye to the NY Jets you know.  Perhaps the Jets sign a FA QB like a Vince Young, trade for Jason Campbell, promote McElroy to QB, or draft a QB.  Any way you slice it, though, it's extremely unlikely Sanchez will play football for the Jets again.

Is there really a de-emphasis on running backs?

We always hear about the RB position being forgotten about, but how true is that?  I set out writing this article trying to prove that the running game in the NFL is lacking, but evidence shows me that it's not even close to being true.  The running game is as strong as ever, the pass has just taken over.  Individual TEAMS may abandon the run completely, but as a whole there is NO league trend showing that rushing trends are down.  Want proof?  Here are the total rushing yards for the NFL for each of the last seasons dating back to 1991:

2011-59,978
2010-58,607
2009-59,739
2008-59,370
2007-56,790
2006-60,061
2005-57,583
2004-59,709
2003-60,341
2002-59,459
2001-55,440
2000-55,829
1999-52,819
1998-54,093
1997-54,260
1996-52,306
1995-51,886
1994-46,710
1993-49,295
1992-49,509
1991-48,237

So wait, the last 4 years are almost 10,000 yards less than the 2011 total?  Why is that?  Because there were only 28 teams!  Still, the totals from 2002 on crush the totals of any era before it, so we're actually in an era of MORE rushing yards instead of less rushing.  The difference is HOW the rushing yards are attained.  In 2011, we have more of a "running back by committee" rushing attack because of durability issues.  QBs are also a HUGE part of rushing totals.  QBs racked up 5,955 yards in 2011, that's 10% of the total rushing stats for the league.  In 1991, that total was 3,030 or just 6.2%.

There are also less traditional backs now than there were in 1991.  10 backs in 2011 broke 1400 yards from scrimmage compared to just 3 in 1991.  All 3 of those backs in 1991 were over 1400 yards rushing while just 1 of the 10 backs in 2011 were over 1400 yards rushing.  This demonstrates that backs now are expected to both receive and rush with the football.  Rushing has also become more effective.  YPC for the league in 2011 was 4.3 compared to 3.9 in 1991.  From 1991 to 1999, the YPC number never reached higher than 4.0.  From 2000 to 2011, the YPC number never dipped below 4.0 and it only hit 4.0 once.  The NFL has shifted gears and has actually become more efficient rushing.

It's easy to slip in to the mindset that the run is dying in the NFL, but that would be a false idea.  In 2011, 4.3% of passes went for TDs, the average yards per attempt was 7.2, and the average yards per game was 229.7.  In 1999, only 3.7% of passes went for TDs, yards per attempt was 6.9, and yards per game was 199.1.  Passing has DEFINITELY increased, but it's an illusion that rushing has decreased as a result.  It is true that the running game may look different, it's still a viable option and will be for years to come.

Why the Jets Need To Get Rid of Sanchez...but Can't

Unfair or not, part of being a 1st round draft choice gives you the burden of producing immediate success.  Typically, a QB taken high is going to a team that is in desperate need of a passer.  In 2009, the Jets traded their 1st and 2nd round picks and 3 players to the Browns to move up to number five and snag Mark Sanchez, QB from USC.  The Jets were actually a pretty good team with a void at QB.  With Brett Favre at QB in 2008, the Jets finished with a 9-7 record and narrowly missed the playoffs.  After Favre retired from football (for the 2nd time) the Jets were faced with a hole at QB.  With an inexperienced Kellen Clemens as the only QB on the roster, they either had to make a play for a QB or settle on Clemens.

On draft day 2009, Mark Sanchez was riding the hype train all the way to the top of the draft boards.  He was ranked as the number two QB that day behind Georgia's Matthew Stafford.  However, Mark Sanchez was a huge risk considering he had just 16 college starts.  The Jets figured the inexperience was irrelevant and traded up to take him at #5 overall.  With $28 million guaranteed in his rookie contract, Sanchez was expected to perform immediately.

His results?  Disappointing.  It's very true that despite backing into the playoffs his 1st two years, the Jets made it to the AFC title game, but looking at HOW the Jets did it, Sanchez doesn't deserve much credit at all.  In 2009, the Jets were the 31st best passing offense.  In 2010 they were the 22nd best.  The reason the Jets won was clearly because of their #1 rushing and defensive units in 2008 and their #6 and #4 defensive and rushing units in 2010.  In those two years Sanchez threw 33 interceptions and fumbled 19 times while scoring just 35 times.

It's easy to get caught up in the hype, however.  The Jets were 20-12 over those two years and Sanchez scored 5 4th quarter comeback wins in those 20 wins so the Jets were playing exciting football.  Success is the best deodorant.  You win a ton of games and make them exciting and people tend to forget about the fact that you threw 4 INTs in a game last week.  But the fact of the matter is that the Jets' QB situation is horrendous.

Here are some quick facts about Sanchez:

• 16 of 59 starts had 2+ interceptions or about 27% of his games.
• He has been held without a TD pass in 17 of 59 starts or 29% of his games.
• 39 of 59 starts he has been held under 60% completions.
• 34 of 59 starts he has been held under 7.00 YPA.
• 15 of 59 starts he has been held under 150 yards passing.
• Just 12 of 59 starts have resulted in a 100+QB Rating.

Since 2010, however, the Jets haven't been as successful.  Why is that?  Simply, the run game and defense can't bail Sanchez out.  The last two seasons, the Jets have been ranked 20th and 19th on defense and 22nd and 11th rushing the ball.  There is some truth to the argument that the Jets offense lacks playmakers, but they have had some pretty good guys in there for Sanchez in the past and he's underperformed.  Many elite QBs can be successful with seemingly anybody as well.  Eli has Cruz, Brady has Welker, Romo has Austin, Favre had Driver, Peyton had Collie.  Great QBs can plug in anybody and have some sort of success.  Sanchez can't do that.  Sanchez has no respect and no control.

The biggest issue with Sanchez is that he's not getting better.  Fans are comparing Sanchez to Eli's first 4 years and I think that's downright insane.  After Eli's first season, he never dipped below 4% in TD %, a mark that Sanchez has only hit once in 4 seasons.  They are both sloppy with the ball, but Eli took some HUGE steps forward and he also consistently puts up points.  Sanchez has always look just downright bad with some flashes of good thrown in.

The Jets need a change at QB.  I don't think it should be Tebow or McElroy.  The Jets need new blood on their roster.  As Mike Florio from profootballtalk.com pointed out, the Jets had to deactivate McElroy to give Sanchez some confidence.  Sanchez is shaken and he's likely not going to recover.

What I find most offensive about the Jets, however, is Mike Tannenbaum.  I don't think most fans know just how badly the Jets will suffer because of the horrendous deals he's cut.  Currently, the Jets are going to be $20 million OVER the cap in 2013.  The Jets front-loaded Sanchez's contract, so 2013 is a very cap heavy year for his contract.  The Jets basically gave him a 2 year window to prove himself when he signed his extension in 2012.  Unfortunately, after 1 season, he needs to go.  If the Jets were to cut Sanchez, his guaranteed bonuses would accelerate to $17.1 million against the 2013 cap.  Since his current 2013 cap hit would be $12,853,125, it would add another $4.25 million to the $20 million the Jets are currently over for next year.  The Jets could cut Sanchez after June 1st as a "June 1st cut."  This would actually save the Jets $500,000 in 2013, but it also pushes $4.8 million to 2014.

Essentially, the issue is that Sanchez can't be cut and no team would trade for him.  Tannenbaum basically negotiated a contract that forces the Jets to at least roster Sanchez for one more year.  The Jets are going to have to make some serious cuts this year.  Guys like Santonio Holmes is definitely gone and David Harris may join him too.  The Jets may even do something drastic like trade D'Brickishaw Ferguson.  One thing is for certain, the Jets scouting staff and management may be the worst in the league.  The contracts they gave are just downright terrible.  I actually feel sympathy for Jets fans.