Just How Bad Are the Jets' Cap Issues?

I've had fun bashing the Jets in the past, but as I mentioned in my last post, I actually feel bad for their fans.  GM Mike Tannenbaum and the rest of the front office have crafted some of the worst contracts in the league.  The Jets have just 40 players under contract and are $18 million OVER the cap.  I talked about Mark Sanchez last time, but let's go into greater detail about what options the Jets have.  Using data gathered from sportrac.com, I've determined that the jets have 4 options for Sanchez:

• Cut Sanchez.  This isn't exactly desirable, though.  Sanchez has a guaranteed base salary of $8.25 million in 2013.  He's also owed $2.5 million for his signing bonus from his rookie contract as well as $6.4 million accelerated from his extension contract's signing bonus.  $8.25+$2.5+$6.4=$17,150,000 cap hit in 2013
• Roster Sanchez.  Sanchez is owed his $8.25 million base.  He's also owed the $2.5 million bonus from his old contract and 1/4 of his signing bonus from his extension, or $1.6 million. He's also owed a $500,000 workout bonus.  $8.25+$2.5+$1.6+$500k=$12,850,000 cap hit in 2013
• Declare Sanchez a June 1st cut.  How this works is that Sanchez is treated like he's on the roster for 2013 which means that any bonuses he acquired at the time of the cut are counted against the 2013 cap and any bonuses that are in the future come in 2014.  Essentially, the Jets would have to pay his $8.25 million base, $2.5 million bonus, and $1.6 million bonus from the proration.  The Jets would be off the hook for the $500,000 workout bonus.  $4.8 million (3/4 of the extension signing bonus) would be accelerated against the 2014 cap.  $8.25+$2.5+$1.6=$12,350,000 cap hit in 2013, plus a $4,800,000 cap hit in 2013
• Trade Sanchez.  When a player is given a signing bonus, that money is paid up front.  That money is then prorated over the duration of the contract.  The team is obligated to pay for that signing bonus regardless of what happens to the player.  Sanchez is owed a total of $8.9 million in bonuses if he is traded.  This would be the easiest option if it were just $8.9 million the Jets had to worry about.  Sanchez, unfortunately, also has a base salary of $8.25 million in 2013 which IS guaranteed.  While that money IS transferable, it will be hard to convince another team that a QB who has severely underperformed is worth $8.25 million.  The Jets will likely eat some of that money IF, and that's a big if, another team is willing to trade for him.  You're looking at anywhere from $4-5 million the Jets would need to eat to trade Sanchez.  $8.9+$4-5=$12,900,000-$13,900,000 cap hit in 2013

Given those options, my personal feeling is that the Jets will in fact declare him a June 1st cut.  They don't want him on the roster anymore and they NEED cap space.  This move will put the Jets $500,000 closer to being under cap, but it leaves them now with 39 players under contract in 2013.  Let's look at some more options for the Jets to cut.  As I go on and list players, I will show their individual savings in green as well as the total cap room in red.

• Calvin Pace: $5,810,000 base salary, $3,013,333 signing bonus, $2,500,000 roster bons, $500,000 workout bonus.  If the Jets cut him, $3,013,333-$5,810,000-$2,500,000-$500,000=$5,796,667 savings, -$12,203,333 cap room if cut.
• Santonio Holmes: $11,000,000 base salary, $1,250,000 signing bonus, $250,000 workout bonus.  Contract through 2015.  If the Jets cut Holmes, $3,750,000-$11,000,000-$250,000=$7,500,000 savings, -$10,500,000 cap room if cut, -$4,703,333 cap room if Holmes AND Pace are cut.
• Eric Smith: $2,400,000 base salary, $600,000 workout bonus.  If the Jets Cut him, -$2,400,000-$600,000=$3,000,000 savings, -$15,000,000 cap room if cut, -$1,703,333 cap room if Holmes, Pace, AND Smith are cut.
• Bart Scott: $6,900,000 base salary, $1,500,000 signing bonus, $250,000 roster bonus.  If the Jets cut him, $1,500,000-$250,000-$6,900,000=$5,650,000 savings, -$12,350,000 cap room if cut, +$3,946,667 if Holmes, Pace, Smith, and Scott are cut.
• David Harris: $10,900,000 base salary, $2,000,000 signing bonus, $100,000 roster bonus.  Contract through 2014.  If the Jets cut Harris, $4,000,000-$10,900,000-$100,000=$7,000,000 savings, -$11,000,000 cap room if cut, +$10,946,667 cap room if Holmes, Pace, Smith, Scott, and Harris are cut.
• Jason Smith: $750,000 base salary, $11,250,000 roster bonus.  If the Jets cut Smith, -$750,000-$11,250,000=$12,000,000 savings, -$7,000,000 cap room if cut, +$22,946,667 cap room if Holmes, Pace, Smith, Scott, and Harris are cut.

Unfortunately, I was unable to get data on Tim Tebow's contract, but I would have thrown him in there.  If you designate Sanchez a June 1st cut, you can add another $500,000 to that cap number and it would come in at $23,446,667 freed up.  The Jets would be down to 33 players under contract, but that leaves $1.1 million PER PLAYER available to get up to 53 guys.  As it stands without cutting anybody, the Jets would have -$1,384,615.4 per player to sign the remaining 13 needed to get to 53.  The Jets are in for a rude awakening in 2013.  They will indeed be a rebuilding team.  Rex Ryan will likely be gone as well as Tannenbaum.  Say goodbye to the NY Jets you know.  Perhaps the Jets sign a FA QB like a Vince Young, trade for Jason Campbell, promote McElroy to QB, or draft a QB.  Any way you slice it, though, it's extremely unlikely Sanchez will play football for the Jets again.