Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Is there really a de-emphasis on running backs?

We always hear about the RB position being forgotten about, but how true is that?  I set out writing this article trying to prove that the running game in the NFL is lacking, but evidence shows me that it's not even close to being true.  The running game is as strong as ever, the pass has just taken over.  Individual TEAMS may abandon the run completely, but as a whole there is NO league trend showing that rushing trends are down.  Want proof?  Here are the total rushing yards for the NFL for each of the last seasons dating back to 1991:

2011-59,978
2010-58,607
2009-59,739
2008-59,370
2007-56,790
2006-60,061
2005-57,583
2004-59,709
2003-60,341
2002-59,459
2001-55,440
2000-55,829
1999-52,819
1998-54,093
1997-54,260
1996-52,306
1995-51,886
1994-46,710
1993-49,295
1992-49,509
1991-48,237

So wait, the last 4 years are almost 10,000 yards less than the 2011 total?  Why is that?  Because there were only 28 teams!  Still, the totals from 2002 on crush the totals of any era before it, so we're actually in an era of MORE rushing yards instead of less rushing.  The difference is HOW the rushing yards are attained.  In 2011, we have more of a "running back by committee" rushing attack because of durability issues.  QBs are also a HUGE part of rushing totals.  QBs racked up 5,955 yards in 2011, that's 10% of the total rushing stats for the league.  In 1991, that total was 3,030 or just 6.2%.

There are also less traditional backs now than there were in 1991.  10 backs in 2011 broke 1400 yards from scrimmage compared to just 3 in 1991.  All 3 of those backs in 1991 were over 1400 yards rushing while just 1 of the 10 backs in 2011 were over 1400 yards rushing.  This demonstrates that backs now are expected to both receive and rush with the football.  Rushing has also become more effective.  YPC for the league in 2011 was 4.3 compared to 3.9 in 1991.  From 1991 to 1999, the YPC number never reached higher than 4.0.  From 2000 to 2011, the YPC number never dipped below 4.0 and it only hit 4.0 once.  The NFL has shifted gears and has actually become more efficient rushing.

It's easy to slip in to the mindset that the run is dying in the NFL, but that would be a false idea.  In 2011, 4.3% of passes went for TDs, the average yards per attempt was 7.2, and the average yards per game was 229.7.  In 1999, only 3.7% of passes went for TDs, yards per attempt was 6.9, and yards per game was 199.1.  Passing has DEFINITELY increased, but it's an illusion that rushing has decreased as a result.  It is true that the running game may look different, it's still a viable option and will be for years to come.

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