Ah! The time is here, NFL free agency! Love it! Almost a week in and so much has happened. I'm just going to do some random thoughts for this one.
Mario Williams-Love this pickup on both ends. Mario gets paid and goes to a pretty good situation in Buffalo. I like the situation better in Houston, but I'm not sure they had Mario Williams money. The Bills scored big time on this move, but one comment I have to make here is that people need to cool it with the "THIS IS LIKE WHEN THE PACKERS SIGNED REGGIE WHITE" talk. Yes, Williams is VERY good, but Reggie White was probably one of the top 10-15 players EVER to play the game. I'm not just saying that because he was a Packer, I'm saying that because there weren't many better than him at ANY position. Still, I feel like this move was a win-win for both sides and Mario will contribute. With guys like Barnett, Dareus, Byrd, and now Williams, the Bills opportunistic defense will be improved next year.
Peyton Manning-How could I not talk about this? I really don't like this move for Manning. Obviously it's a great deal for Denver. Elway needed to do something to shut the Tebow lovers up. He's a lively, exciting player, but he's not very good and the Broncos just would not beat top teams with a guy as sloppy as Tebow playing. From the side of Peyton Manning, I just don't understand it. The Bronco's weapons are acceptable, but not great. I know Peyton can elevate their play, but the 49ers are the best option as far as weapons. Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Frank Gore are awesome. Their offensive line is awesome as well...Joe Staley, Mike Iupati, and Anthony Davis are all very good players and all high picks. The Broncos also have good linemen, but San Fran has the whole package together. San Fran's defense will be top 3 for the next couple of years as well. I read that Manning didn't like the "Super Bowl or bust mentality," but if he doesn't want that, why play football? I wonder if Manning just wants to coast for the next couple of years?
Vincent Jackson-You gotta love the fact that his deal was for 5 years, $55,555,555 (that's ocho cincos) because Josh Freeman wears 5. Jackson is obviously excited to be in Tampa and that's great for team morale, but I'm not sure if I like this pickup by Tampa. He'll be 30 years old in January and the Bucs have $24 million tied up in him in the first 2 years. That's a lot of money to throw into a guy who will be 31 when that money is paid up. The rest isn't FULLY guaranteed so the Bucs can cut him after 2 years, but I still don't like dumping that money into him.
Brandon Carr-I'm going to gush on Dallas for a bit here starting with Carr. I love this pickup. The Cowboys have someone to replace Newman who can come in and play rather than rolling the dice on a draftee CB. Carr is a cheap alternative and I love the move by Dallas
Dan Connor-Dallas becomes Penn State on the interior! Those two playing on the interior will really Sandusky the competition!
Dallas in general-Dallas has shored up holes at guard, safety, corner, and inside backer with free agency. Suddenly, Dallas can go out and draft for potential/BPA instead of reaching for need and this will go a long way into making Dallas a competitive franchise. Love their moves.
Laurent Robinson-Another great move by Dallas letting him go. Robinson was asking for too much money for his true ability. There's a reason he's been kicked around. Sure, he had a fantastic season with Dallas, but that was because he was able to benefit from playing with Witten, Bryant, and Austin. In Jacksonville, he has nobody to draw coverage away from him and no QB to throw to him. Henne or Gabbert (or maybe Tebow) are nowhere close to Romo. Look for Robinson to have an awful year.
Brandon Lloyd-This just isn't fair! The Pats picked him up (along with Anthony Gonzalez and Donte Stallworth) and with Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez, Brady may break some records this year. Scared.
Marques Colston-This was probably the most mature move I've ever seen out of a wide receiver. He needs that NOLA offense as much as they need him. He wouldn't have been successful in many other systems and he knew NOLA was his best fit and took the money. Smart move.
Randy Moss-I don't get this move too much, but I guess it will create a buzz. Maybe sell a few jerseys. With the QB position up in the air, I'm not sure what the 49ers are doing.
Alex Smith-I feel genuinely bad for the guy. He's had a different offensive coordinator EVERY season he's been in the NFL. He has no stability and his play has suffered because of it. I think his true ability is a little more than what he put up this year, but he'll never achieve that level. It looks like Miami snagged David Garrard so perhaps Smith re-ups with San Fran, but I feel like their relationship has soured.
Matt Flynn-Love this move with him going to Seattle. Bevell runs a west coast offense predicated more on the run game than conventional WCO's. Flynn got plenty of exposure to WCOs under Philbin in GB and will likely have an easier time grasping the offense having been exposed to it for so long. Look for Flynn to be a top 15 guy this year. He's Aaron Rodgers with less mobility, awareness, and arm strength. He's not going to be an elite, franchise guy, but between Cassel and Schaub wouldn't be outrageous.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Playing Tag With Matt Flynn
So we embark on the endeavor that is the NFL offesason. Right now is the dull period. The Combine is starting and free agency is starting soon. NFL teams are getting prepared for the NFL Draft as well. One interesting situation is what is going to happen with Matt Flynn, the backup QB for Green Bay. He's a free agent and there's a shortage of QBs. Obvious teams in need of a QB are Indianapolis, Cleveland, Seattle, Washington, and Miami. Will Flynn go to any one of these teams? I think he's going to Miami, but not as a free agent. I think that Green Bay will place the franchise tag Flynn and trade him. A lot of people don't agree with me, but I've been saying this for a while now and everything I have said has come true so far, so let me explain why I feel this way.
The first hint that Flynn would be tagged came back on week 17. Flynn stepped in for Rodgers who got the week off because the Packers had nothing to play for. Flynn threw for 6 TDs and just 1 INT without top WR Greg Jennings. He came from behind to beat the playoff bound Detroit Lions with Matthew Stafford at QB. Flynn had played well in his one start in 2010 for Aaron Rodgers when Rodgers was out with a concussion vs New England, but one game doesn't tell you everything. Flynn in his two starts is 1-1 and has thrown for 9TDs to just 2INTs. Obviously, Flynn isn't a terrible QB.
The tag talk was just speculation back then. We had other free agent issues to deal with. Center Scott Wells who has done a good job since Mike Flannagan left and tight end Jermichael Finley who is a matchup nightmare dispite his frequent drops were also both due to become free agents. It was pretty obvious that one of those two would be tagged. Finley and the Packers seemed far appart on the contract negotiations and he seemed destined for the tag.
A big development occurred, however. Offensive coordinator Joe Philbin signed a deal with the Miami Dolphins to become their new head coach. The Dolphins owner Stephen Ross stated during the season that he wanted a "superstar coach and quarterback." If Ross' idea of a superstar coach was Joe Philbin, maybe his idea of a superstar QB is Flynn? A lot of people speculate that Peyton Manning will head to Miami, but I don't see this happening. In my honest opinion, I think Manning is done for good with football. 4 neck procedures is a serious thing. Manning's neck seems to not be responding well to treatment. He was only able to pass the ball about 20 yards during the season. His rehab is moving along too slowly for any team to put stock into him being their starting QB on opening day.
So now, Philbin is the head coach of Miami. He's implementing the system that Flynn has learned and practiced since he was a rookie out of LSU in 2008. Miami has a good offensive structure. They have some good offensive linemen like Jake Long and Mike Pouncey. Brandon Marshall is a perennial pro bowl wide out. Reggie Bush emerged as the back people expected him to be back in 2006. The issue in Miami is the quarterback position. Miami decided not to bring QB Chad Henne back leaving Matt Moore as the only QB left on the roster worth starting. Moore did in fact spark some life into the Miami team last season, but he's extremely limited. Miami is definitely in the market for a new QB especially because they have an entirely new system now.
So what options do the Dolphins have to rectify their QB problems? Let's look into it:
1) Keep Matt Moore. Moore would be the safest choice, but also the one with the least potential. The Dolphins know what they have in Moore. There is little risk in keeping him at QB, but like I said, he's limited. The Dolphins are looking to move up.
2) Draft a QB. At either pick 8 or 9, depending on a coin flip, Miami will likely be too far back to secure a top QB without trading up. At pick 8, the two best QBs available would be Ryan Tannehill or Brandon Weeden, both guys being enormous reaches.
3) Trade or sign a FA QB. The Dolphins have very few options here. They could try and get Peyton Manning if he's released, but like I said, his health issues probably scare most teams. They could go for Jason Campbell, but he's similar to Matt Moore. He's just an average guy. The best option here would be Matt Flynn. But what will it take to get Flynn?
Depending on what the Packers decide to do with Flynn, the Dolphins will have a legitimate shot at getting Flynn. We've already established that he'd be a great fit for the offense seeing as he knows it already and he can come right in and start. Let's first assume that the Packers let him go via FA and don't tag him. The teams that can't score a great QB in the draft will likely bid for his services. Washington, Seattle, and Miami would likely be in a 3 way fight for him. This will drive his cost up enormously and thus would likely net the Packers a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2013. This would be the easiest for everybody because it doesn't involve cap maneuvering. But the Packers stand to gain more than a 3rd round pick if they tag and trade, but just how much more?
To understand the complications the tag brings, I'll have to first explain the Packers' cap situation. As I mentioned earlier, one of the biggest issues with tagging Flynn was that it would make it impossible to tag Jermichael Finley. Finley and the Packers just agreed to a 2-year deal last night without using the tag which frees up the use of the tag for either Flynn or center Scott Wells. The Packers feel that Wells is overvaluing himself. Understandably, Wells took offense to that statement and is destined to hit the open market to try to get a lucrative deal. The only player left to deal with is Matt Flynn.
The first issue with tagging Flynn is the money that comes with the tag. NFL teams are not allowed to be over the cap and with the new Finley deal, the Packers are left with roughly $4.25 million in cap room. The franchise tag number for QBs is about $14.4 million which is all guaranteed which counts 100% towards the cap, so the Packers need to free up space in order to tag him. This is where Ted Thompson being a genius comes in. Teams like the Steelers are in cap hell because they structured the deals with aging veterans poorly. They gave up way too much guaranteed money. The Packers guaranteed nothing for 2 key players, Donald Driver and Chad Clifton. Driver is due to make $5,600,000 and Clifton is due to make $5,703,125. Both can be cut and those totals would be deducted from the total team salary putting us under the cap by roughly $15,553,125. This is plenty of room to tag Flynn and it will only last a couple of days until he gets traded. Also, sadly, if Nick Collins is forced to retire, this adds another $3,450,000 of cap room with no cap hit. After the trade is completed, the Packers would easily be able to sign Driver and Clifton back to smaller deals seeing as their roles will likely be diminished in 2012.
So the Packers have cap room now and they tag Flynn, Miami shows interest and wants to make a deal. Best case scenario would be the two teams swap 1st rounders and the Dolphins get Flynn. I know that won't sit well with many of you, but it's win-win for both teams. The Packers move up and can get a top 10 pass rusher. The Dolphins stay in the first round, but secure a QB, opening up options to improve their team later in the draft. Maybe Miami throws in a 5th rounder, but I doubt it. Miami can also ship over a 2nd rounder for Flynn straight up or maybe a 3rd and a 5th. Any of these options are more desirable than letting Flynn go and collecting a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2013. Compensatory picks are given at the end of each round. A 3rd round compensatory pick is given at the end of the 3rd round, so it is essentially a 4th round pick. You also cannot trade a compensatory pick, so even if we get a 3rd rounder for Flynn this year, we can still use it to trade up and snag a better player.
The actions of the Packers and the Dolphins indicate that a trade is imminent. Matt Flynn deserves this. He was a backup to JaMarcus Russell at LSU and the Packers gave him a shot. He beat out former Packer and Bill Brian Brohm who was touted as the most pro-ready QB in the 2008 draft class. He worked hard and he earned the right to go start for another team. Let's just make sure the Packers get compensated for their work in his development as well.
The first hint that Flynn would be tagged came back on week 17. Flynn stepped in for Rodgers who got the week off because the Packers had nothing to play for. Flynn threw for 6 TDs and just 1 INT without top WR Greg Jennings. He came from behind to beat the playoff bound Detroit Lions with Matthew Stafford at QB. Flynn had played well in his one start in 2010 for Aaron Rodgers when Rodgers was out with a concussion vs New England, but one game doesn't tell you everything. Flynn in his two starts is 1-1 and has thrown for 9TDs to just 2INTs. Obviously, Flynn isn't a terrible QB.
The tag talk was just speculation back then. We had other free agent issues to deal with. Center Scott Wells who has done a good job since Mike Flannagan left and tight end Jermichael Finley who is a matchup nightmare dispite his frequent drops were also both due to become free agents. It was pretty obvious that one of those two would be tagged. Finley and the Packers seemed far appart on the contract negotiations and he seemed destined for the tag.
A big development occurred, however. Offensive coordinator Joe Philbin signed a deal with the Miami Dolphins to become their new head coach. The Dolphins owner Stephen Ross stated during the season that he wanted a "superstar coach and quarterback." If Ross' idea of a superstar coach was Joe Philbin, maybe his idea of a superstar QB is Flynn? A lot of people speculate that Peyton Manning will head to Miami, but I don't see this happening. In my honest opinion, I think Manning is done for good with football. 4 neck procedures is a serious thing. Manning's neck seems to not be responding well to treatment. He was only able to pass the ball about 20 yards during the season. His rehab is moving along too slowly for any team to put stock into him being their starting QB on opening day.
So now, Philbin is the head coach of Miami. He's implementing the system that Flynn has learned and practiced since he was a rookie out of LSU in 2008. Miami has a good offensive structure. They have some good offensive linemen like Jake Long and Mike Pouncey. Brandon Marshall is a perennial pro bowl wide out. Reggie Bush emerged as the back people expected him to be back in 2006. The issue in Miami is the quarterback position. Miami decided not to bring QB Chad Henne back leaving Matt Moore as the only QB left on the roster worth starting. Moore did in fact spark some life into the Miami team last season, but he's extremely limited. Miami is definitely in the market for a new QB especially because they have an entirely new system now.
So what options do the Dolphins have to rectify their QB problems? Let's look into it:
1) Keep Matt Moore. Moore would be the safest choice, but also the one with the least potential. The Dolphins know what they have in Moore. There is little risk in keeping him at QB, but like I said, he's limited. The Dolphins are looking to move up.
2) Draft a QB. At either pick 8 or 9, depending on a coin flip, Miami will likely be too far back to secure a top QB without trading up. At pick 8, the two best QBs available would be Ryan Tannehill or Brandon Weeden, both guys being enormous reaches.
3) Trade or sign a FA QB. The Dolphins have very few options here. They could try and get Peyton Manning if he's released, but like I said, his health issues probably scare most teams. They could go for Jason Campbell, but he's similar to Matt Moore. He's just an average guy. The best option here would be Matt Flynn. But what will it take to get Flynn?
Depending on what the Packers decide to do with Flynn, the Dolphins will have a legitimate shot at getting Flynn. We've already established that he'd be a great fit for the offense seeing as he knows it already and he can come right in and start. Let's first assume that the Packers let him go via FA and don't tag him. The teams that can't score a great QB in the draft will likely bid for his services. Washington, Seattle, and Miami would likely be in a 3 way fight for him. This will drive his cost up enormously and thus would likely net the Packers a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2013. This would be the easiest for everybody because it doesn't involve cap maneuvering. But the Packers stand to gain more than a 3rd round pick if they tag and trade, but just how much more?
To understand the complications the tag brings, I'll have to first explain the Packers' cap situation. As I mentioned earlier, one of the biggest issues with tagging Flynn was that it would make it impossible to tag Jermichael Finley. Finley and the Packers just agreed to a 2-year deal last night without using the tag which frees up the use of the tag for either Flynn or center Scott Wells. The Packers feel that Wells is overvaluing himself. Understandably, Wells took offense to that statement and is destined to hit the open market to try to get a lucrative deal. The only player left to deal with is Matt Flynn.
The first issue with tagging Flynn is the money that comes with the tag. NFL teams are not allowed to be over the cap and with the new Finley deal, the Packers are left with roughly $4.25 million in cap room. The franchise tag number for QBs is about $14.4 million which is all guaranteed which counts 100% towards the cap, so the Packers need to free up space in order to tag him. This is where Ted Thompson being a genius comes in. Teams like the Steelers are in cap hell because they structured the deals with aging veterans poorly. They gave up way too much guaranteed money. The Packers guaranteed nothing for 2 key players, Donald Driver and Chad Clifton. Driver is due to make $5,600,000 and Clifton is due to make $5,703,125. Both can be cut and those totals would be deducted from the total team salary putting us under the cap by roughly $15,553,125. This is plenty of room to tag Flynn and it will only last a couple of days until he gets traded. Also, sadly, if Nick Collins is forced to retire, this adds another $3,450,000 of cap room with no cap hit. After the trade is completed, the Packers would easily be able to sign Driver and Clifton back to smaller deals seeing as their roles will likely be diminished in 2012.
So the Packers have cap room now and they tag Flynn, Miami shows interest and wants to make a deal. Best case scenario would be the two teams swap 1st rounders and the Dolphins get Flynn. I know that won't sit well with many of you, but it's win-win for both teams. The Packers move up and can get a top 10 pass rusher. The Dolphins stay in the first round, but secure a QB, opening up options to improve their team later in the draft. Maybe Miami throws in a 5th rounder, but I doubt it. Miami can also ship over a 2nd rounder for Flynn straight up or maybe a 3rd and a 5th. Any of these options are more desirable than letting Flynn go and collecting a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2013. Compensatory picks are given at the end of each round. A 3rd round compensatory pick is given at the end of the 3rd round, so it is essentially a 4th round pick. You also cannot trade a compensatory pick, so even if we get a 3rd rounder for Flynn this year, we can still use it to trade up and snag a better player.
The actions of the Packers and the Dolphins indicate that a trade is imminent. Matt Flynn deserves this. He was a backup to JaMarcus Russell at LSU and the Packers gave him a shot. He beat out former Packer and Bill Brian Brohm who was touted as the most pro-ready QB in the 2008 draft class. He worked hard and he earned the right to go start for another team. Let's just make sure the Packers get compensated for their work in his development as well.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
How to Fix the Pro Bowl
Despite being literally the worst "All-Star" game of all the major sports, the NFL's Pro Bowl continues to dominate the ratings of All-Star games. Baseball's All-Star game has incentive for victory because the winning conference gains home field in the World Series. Baseball also offers fans a home run derby the night before. Hockey adopted a fantasy draft format to select their teams and they hold a skills competition before the game. Along with their All-Star game, the NBA holds a bunch of skills competitions and a developmental league game. NASCAR has an All-Star race seeded by race and qualifying results and if you don't make it in that way, you can race your way in before the actual race. The only thing about the race that matters is winning, so drivers are more reckless because they don't have to worry about losing points to other drivers.
Being the dominant force in American professional sports, the NFL is used to being the big dog. They're dropping the ball on this one. Right now their ratings are still higher, but they're falling and the other leagues are gaining on them. The NFL's decision in 2007 to ditch the Pro Bowl Skills Competition is baffling to me. They abandoned the whole "weekend" aspect of the Pro Bowl and made it into a singular event. The NFL could profit from showing fans to the fun, relaxed side of players. Instead, the NFL chose to show the fans the marginally exciting game. The players are showing their fun, relaxed side. The only problem is that it's in a situation where the fans are used to seeing the players leave their hearts on the field. Now, they're shown truly not caring. It's a bad image for the league.
If the NFL doesn't do something drastic, the Pro Bowl will be a thing of the past. It's already showing signs of failing. The NFL's decision to move it to a week before the Super Bowl instead of a week after seems like a desperation heave to garner viewers. It's a crass move that puts ratings over quality. The NFL doesn't care that the players from the Super Bowl teams don't participate in the Pro Bowl. They don't care that some players will have phantom injuries and drop out. Fans have put up with it in the short term, but as time goes by and the product becomes more and more inferior, the Pro Bowl will die a slow death.
There are issues facing making the Pro Bowl more interesting. The return of the skills challenge is definitely an easy way to garner some interest, but that doesn't fix how awful the game is. The first thing the league needs to do is move the game back to where it was, a week after the Super Bowl. This gives players 3 weeks to rest after the season and it gives the Super Bowl players an opportunity to participate. These players are the most marketable to the average person because more than half of the country watches the Super Bowl. If you have more participation from the people initially voted in, the games will be inherently more interesting.
The league also needs to do something to enhance competition during the game. They can't adopt a system like baseball where the winning conference hosts the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is a much more lucrative event than the World Series and requires 5+ years of planning to host one. The NFL needs to come up with creative ways to motivate the players to care about the game. I've tossed some ideas around in my head, and this is what I've come up with:
Skills Challenge/Voting Change
Bring back the Skills Challenge, but give meaning to it. The league should also continue current voting practices, but change how some players make the Pro Bowl. Here's how it'd work:
The top 2 vote-getters for every position are locked in for each conference. For example, Rodgers and Brees are the top 2 vote getters for the NFC, they're locked in. Use the Skills Challenge to lock in the final roster spot. The Skills Challenge will consist of the top 3 vote-getters not locked into the game for positions (4 for WRs because 2 will qualify) competing for the final roster spot. For QBs it will be an accuracy and distance contest, for OL it will be a one-man sled race, for DL it will be a strength competition, WRs a catching competition, RBs and DBs a speed competition, and LBs an obstacle course. The losers get a nice Hawaii vacation and they get to participate in a flag football game with the 2 remaining QBs as the captains.
Making the Actual Game Competitive
The game itself will be harder to make more competitive. Like I said before, it's hard to make the game more exciting because there's nothing on the line. Win or lose, the players get paid. My idea is modest and can easily be implemented. Give out an award for each position. Best QB, best LB, best WR, etc. It will make each position more scrutinized and give the players something to play for. It won't make the game the most compelling game ever, but it will add a twist to it.
The fans deserve better. We made football the most popular sport in America, the least they could do is make the game more exciting for us.
Being the dominant force in American professional sports, the NFL is used to being the big dog. They're dropping the ball on this one. Right now their ratings are still higher, but they're falling and the other leagues are gaining on them. The NFL's decision in 2007 to ditch the Pro Bowl Skills Competition is baffling to me. They abandoned the whole "weekend" aspect of the Pro Bowl and made it into a singular event. The NFL could profit from showing fans to the fun, relaxed side of players. Instead, the NFL chose to show the fans the marginally exciting game. The players are showing their fun, relaxed side. The only problem is that it's in a situation where the fans are used to seeing the players leave their hearts on the field. Now, they're shown truly not caring. It's a bad image for the league.
If the NFL doesn't do something drastic, the Pro Bowl will be a thing of the past. It's already showing signs of failing. The NFL's decision to move it to a week before the Super Bowl instead of a week after seems like a desperation heave to garner viewers. It's a crass move that puts ratings over quality. The NFL doesn't care that the players from the Super Bowl teams don't participate in the Pro Bowl. They don't care that some players will have phantom injuries and drop out. Fans have put up with it in the short term, but as time goes by and the product becomes more and more inferior, the Pro Bowl will die a slow death.
There are issues facing making the Pro Bowl more interesting. The return of the skills challenge is definitely an easy way to garner some interest, but that doesn't fix how awful the game is. The first thing the league needs to do is move the game back to where it was, a week after the Super Bowl. This gives players 3 weeks to rest after the season and it gives the Super Bowl players an opportunity to participate. These players are the most marketable to the average person because more than half of the country watches the Super Bowl. If you have more participation from the people initially voted in, the games will be inherently more interesting.
The league also needs to do something to enhance competition during the game. They can't adopt a system like baseball where the winning conference hosts the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is a much more lucrative event than the World Series and requires 5+ years of planning to host one. The NFL needs to come up with creative ways to motivate the players to care about the game. I've tossed some ideas around in my head, and this is what I've come up with:
Skills Challenge/Voting Change
Bring back the Skills Challenge, but give meaning to it. The league should also continue current voting practices, but change how some players make the Pro Bowl. Here's how it'd work:
The top 2 vote-getters for every position are locked in for each conference. For example, Rodgers and Brees are the top 2 vote getters for the NFC, they're locked in. Use the Skills Challenge to lock in the final roster spot. The Skills Challenge will consist of the top 3 vote-getters not locked into the game for positions (4 for WRs because 2 will qualify) competing for the final roster spot. For QBs it will be an accuracy and distance contest, for OL it will be a one-man sled race, for DL it will be a strength competition, WRs a catching competition, RBs and DBs a speed competition, and LBs an obstacle course. The losers get a nice Hawaii vacation and they get to participate in a flag football game with the 2 remaining QBs as the captains.
Making the Actual Game Competitive
The game itself will be harder to make more competitive. Like I said before, it's hard to make the game more exciting because there's nothing on the line. Win or lose, the players get paid. My idea is modest and can easily be implemented. Give out an award for each position. Best QB, best LB, best WR, etc. It will make each position more scrutinized and give the players something to play for. It won't make the game the most compelling game ever, but it will add a twist to it.
The fans deserve better. We made football the most popular sport in America, the least they could do is make the game more exciting for us.
The Brady Myth
The draft is quickly approaching, it's just over 2 months away. Every year when the draft comes we see the whole tired Brady storyline about him being a 6th round pick and now he's a 3-time champ and a 2-time MVP. Every 6th round pick that gets taken, especially QB, get's all this hype by fans of the teams that took them. You hear it all the time, "Dude, so and so is going to be great!" "He's a 6th round pick dude, relax." "Brady was a 6th round pick!!" But this logic is so unbelievably flawed.
For this post, assume a "good" QB is a QB who starts at least 1 full season and has at least a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. I think those are pretty modest standards for a QB. When it's close, I'll look at other numbers (YPA, QBR, etc.) to determine whether or not the player was "good")
First, let's look at the QBs drafted in the 6th round since Brady was drafted:
2000:
Marc Bulger, New Orleans Saints
Spergon Wynn, Cleveland Browns
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Todd Husak, Washington Redskins
JaJuan Seider, San Diego Chargers
This year, we have 2 good QBs in the draft. One is obviously Tom Brady, the other is Marc Bulger. Bulger threw for almost 23,000 yards and 122 TDs. Spergon Wynn threw 1 TD to 7 INTs in his career. So right now, we're at 2-3. 3 QBs in that group weren't successful at all.
2001:
Josh Booty, Seattle Seahawks
Josh Heupel, Miami Dolphins
Neither of those guys did anything, we're now at 2-5.
2002:
J.T. O'Sullivan, New Orleans Saints
Steve Bellisari, St. Louis Rams
O'Sullivan did start 8 games, but didn't have any success. Bellisari was converted to safety and is now a FA in the Arena Football League. 2-7.
2003:
Drew Henson, Houston Texans
Brooks Bollinger, New York Jets
Kliff Kingsbury, New England Patriots
3 guys that panned out to nothing, surprised? I'm not. 2-10.
2004:
Andy Hall, Philadelphia Eagles
Josh Harris, Baltimore Ravens
Jim Sorgi, Indianapolis Colts
Jeff Smoker, St. Louis Rams
4 more career backups. 2-14.
2005:
Derek Anderson, Baltimore Ravens
Anderson has had limited success. He has close to 40 starts, over 9,000 yards, and 53:55 TD:INT ratio. I think that's good enough to be considered "good." 3-14
2006:
Reggie McNeal, Cincinnati Bengals
Bruce Gradkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gradkowski fulfills the starts requirement, but falls a bit short on the TD:INT requirement. His 5.7 YPA and 65.8 QBR seal the deal. He wasn't very good. 3-16
2007:
Jordan Palmer, Washington Redskins
Not much to say here. Inferior to his older brother, Carson. 3-17.
2008:
Colt Brennan, Washington Redskins
Andre' Woodson, New York Giants
Unspectacular, 3-19
2009:
Tom Brandstater, Denver Broncos
Mike Teel, Seattle Seahawks
Keith Null, St. Louis Rams
Curtis Painter, Indianapolis Colts
4 guys with not much going on between them. Null and Painter both got some extended playing time, but neither performed particularly well. 3-23.
2010:
Rusty Smith, Tennessee Titans
Dan LeFevour, Chicago Bears
Joe Webb, Minnesota Vikings
Tony Pike, Carolina Panthers
Not much to say again, 3-27.
I'm leaving 2011 out because it's not fair to judge first year guys especially with no true offseason.
So let's analyze this a bit. Out of 30 QBs taken from 2000-2010 in the 6th round, only 3 have gone on to be successful. Just 10%. 1 of the 3 wasn't even extremely successful. Bulger was a good starter, but was never outrageously good even with Torry Holt and Issac Bruce.
Taking this further, let's see the current breakdown of starting NFL QBs.
Arizona: Kevin Kolb, 2nd Round
Atlanta: Matt Ryan, 1st Round
Baltimore: Joe Flacco, 1st Round
Buffalo: Ryan Fitzpatrick, 7th Round
Carolina: Cam Newton, 1st Round
Chicago: Jay Cutler, 1st Round
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton, 2nd Round
Cleveland: Colt McCoy, 3rd Round
Dallas: Tony Romo, undrafted
Denver: Tim Tebow, 1st Round
Detroit: Matthew Stafford, 1st Round
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, 1st Round
Houston: Matt Schaub, 3rd Round
Indianapolis: Peyton Manning, 1st Round
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert, 1st Round
Kansas City: Matt Cassel, 7th Round
Miami: Chad Henne, 2nd Round/Matt Moore, undrafted
Minnesota: Christian Ponder, 1st Round
New England: Tom Brady, 6th Round
New Orleans: Drew Brees, 2nd Round
New York G: Eli Manning, 1st Round
New York J: Mark Sanchez, 1st Round
Oakland Raiders: Carson Palmer, 1st Round
Philadelphia: Michael Vick, 1st Round
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round
San Diego, Philip Rivers, 1st Round
San Francisco: Alex Smith, 1st Round
Seattle: Tavaris Jackson, 2nd Round
St. Louis: Sam Bradford, 1st Round
Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman, 1st Round
Tennessee: Matt Hasselbeck, 6th Round
Washington: Rex Grossman, 1st Round/John Beck, 2nd Round
1st Rounders: 20
2nd Rounders: 6
3rd Rounders: 2
6th Rounders: 2
7th Rounders: 2
Undrafted: 2
Just 6% of the starting QBs in the NFL are 6th round picks. 59% are 1st round picks. 76% are 1st or 2nd round picks.
What round were the SB winning QBs drafted in?
Going back to 1990:
Eli Manning (2):1st Round
Aaron Rodgers: 1st Round
Drew Brees: 2nd Round
Ben Roethlisberger (2): 1st Round
Peyton Manning: 1st Round
Tom Brady (3): 6th Round
Brad Johnson: 9th Round
Trent Dilfer: 1st Round
Kurt Warner: Undrafted
John Elway (2): 1st Round
Brett Favre (2): 2nd Round
Troy Aikman (3): 1st Round
Steve Young: 1st Round
Mark Rypien: 6th Round
Jeff Hostetler: 3rd round
In 23 Super Bowls, just 4 have been won by 6th round picks. Only 2 different players did it. Where you're QB was picked DOES matter. 17 of the 23 winners have been 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round picks.
So remember all of this the next time some idiot starts spouting off how great his 6th round pick is. It DOES matter where your QB is taken. There's a chance that he may be good later on in the draft, but the majority of good QBs come from the early rounds.
For this post, assume a "good" QB is a QB who starts at least 1 full season and has at least a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. I think those are pretty modest standards for a QB. When it's close, I'll look at other numbers (YPA, QBR, etc.) to determine whether or not the player was "good")
First, let's look at the QBs drafted in the 6th round since Brady was drafted:
2000:
Marc Bulger, New Orleans Saints
Spergon Wynn, Cleveland Browns
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Todd Husak, Washington Redskins
JaJuan Seider, San Diego Chargers
This year, we have 2 good QBs in the draft. One is obviously Tom Brady, the other is Marc Bulger. Bulger threw for almost 23,000 yards and 122 TDs. Spergon Wynn threw 1 TD to 7 INTs in his career. So right now, we're at 2-3. 3 QBs in that group weren't successful at all.
2001:
Josh Booty, Seattle Seahawks
Josh Heupel, Miami Dolphins
Neither of those guys did anything, we're now at 2-5.
2002:
J.T. O'Sullivan, New Orleans Saints
Steve Bellisari, St. Louis Rams
O'Sullivan did start 8 games, but didn't have any success. Bellisari was converted to safety and is now a FA in the Arena Football League. 2-7.
2003:
Drew Henson, Houston Texans
Brooks Bollinger, New York Jets
Kliff Kingsbury, New England Patriots
3 guys that panned out to nothing, surprised? I'm not. 2-10.
2004:
Andy Hall, Philadelphia Eagles
Josh Harris, Baltimore Ravens
Jim Sorgi, Indianapolis Colts
Jeff Smoker, St. Louis Rams
4 more career backups. 2-14.
2005:
Derek Anderson, Baltimore Ravens
Anderson has had limited success. He has close to 40 starts, over 9,000 yards, and 53:55 TD:INT ratio. I think that's good enough to be considered "good." 3-14
2006:
Reggie McNeal, Cincinnati Bengals
Bruce Gradkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gradkowski fulfills the starts requirement, but falls a bit short on the TD:INT requirement. His 5.7 YPA and 65.8 QBR seal the deal. He wasn't very good. 3-16
2007:
Jordan Palmer, Washington Redskins
Not much to say here. Inferior to his older brother, Carson. 3-17.
2008:
Colt Brennan, Washington Redskins
Andre' Woodson, New York Giants
Unspectacular, 3-19
2009:
Tom Brandstater, Denver Broncos
Mike Teel, Seattle Seahawks
Keith Null, St. Louis Rams
Curtis Painter, Indianapolis Colts
4 guys with not much going on between them. Null and Painter both got some extended playing time, but neither performed particularly well. 3-23.
2010:
Rusty Smith, Tennessee Titans
Dan LeFevour, Chicago Bears
Joe Webb, Minnesota Vikings
Tony Pike, Carolina Panthers
Not much to say again, 3-27.
I'm leaving 2011 out because it's not fair to judge first year guys especially with no true offseason.
So let's analyze this a bit. Out of 30 QBs taken from 2000-2010 in the 6th round, only 3 have gone on to be successful. Just 10%. 1 of the 3 wasn't even extremely successful. Bulger was a good starter, but was never outrageously good even with Torry Holt and Issac Bruce.
Taking this further, let's see the current breakdown of starting NFL QBs.
Arizona: Kevin Kolb, 2nd Round
Atlanta: Matt Ryan, 1st Round
Baltimore: Joe Flacco, 1st Round
Buffalo: Ryan Fitzpatrick, 7th Round
Carolina: Cam Newton, 1st Round
Chicago: Jay Cutler, 1st Round
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton, 2nd Round
Cleveland: Colt McCoy, 3rd Round
Dallas: Tony Romo, undrafted
Denver: Tim Tebow, 1st Round
Detroit: Matthew Stafford, 1st Round
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, 1st Round
Houston: Matt Schaub, 3rd Round
Indianapolis: Peyton Manning, 1st Round
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert, 1st Round
Kansas City: Matt Cassel, 7th Round
Miami: Chad Henne, 2nd Round/Matt Moore, undrafted
Minnesota: Christian Ponder, 1st Round
New England: Tom Brady, 6th Round
New Orleans: Drew Brees, 2nd Round
New York G: Eli Manning, 1st Round
New York J: Mark Sanchez, 1st Round
Oakland Raiders: Carson Palmer, 1st Round
Philadelphia: Michael Vick, 1st Round
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round
San Diego, Philip Rivers, 1st Round
San Francisco: Alex Smith, 1st Round
Seattle: Tavaris Jackson, 2nd Round
St. Louis: Sam Bradford, 1st Round
Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman, 1st Round
Tennessee: Matt Hasselbeck, 6th Round
Washington: Rex Grossman, 1st Round/John Beck, 2nd Round
1st Rounders: 20
2nd Rounders: 6
3rd Rounders: 2
6th Rounders: 2
7th Rounders: 2
Undrafted: 2
Just 6% of the starting QBs in the NFL are 6th round picks. 59% are 1st round picks. 76% are 1st or 2nd round picks.
What round were the SB winning QBs drafted in?
Going back to 1990:
Eli Manning (2):1st Round
Aaron Rodgers: 1st Round
Drew Brees: 2nd Round
Ben Roethlisberger (2): 1st Round
Peyton Manning: 1st Round
Tom Brady (3): 6th Round
Brad Johnson: 9th Round
Trent Dilfer: 1st Round
Kurt Warner: Undrafted
John Elway (2): 1st Round
Brett Favre (2): 2nd Round
Troy Aikman (3): 1st Round
Steve Young: 1st Round
Mark Rypien: 6th Round
Jeff Hostetler: 3rd round
In 23 Super Bowls, just 4 have been won by 6th round picks. Only 2 different players did it. Where you're QB was picked DOES matter. 17 of the 23 winners have been 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round picks.
So remember all of this the next time some idiot starts spouting off how great his 6th round pick is. It DOES matter where your QB is taken. There's a chance that he may be good later on in the draft, but the majority of good QBs come from the early rounds.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
My case for Aaron Rodgers as MVP
This MVP race is interesting. It's divided between two factions, one that believes that Rodgers should win because his efficiency is through the roof. The other believes that Brees should win because his gross stats and accuracy are through the roof. Me being insane, I figured I should look deeper than the gross numbers of each to really paint a picture of the two QBs. I'm going to talk about a bunch of accusations of both guys and compare stats. Enjoy guys!
Drew Brees can't win outdoors.
This is the reason I posted this. I decided to find more just because I'm insane . Brees really does decline away from the dome. He has trouble playing in the cold which may be a problem if the road to the Super Bowl goes through Lambeau. Let's look at the numbers, first indoors:
277/383 3,257 yards 72.3% completions 8.5 YPA 34 TDs 9% TD% 6 INTs 2% INT% 120.8 QB Rating
Pretty damn good if you ask me. Those are Aaron Rodgers numbers! Now outdoors.
191/279 2,219 yards 69.7% 8.1 YPA 12 TD 4% TD% 8 INT 3% INT% 96.4 QBR
Pretty sizable difference. 104 less completions 22 TDs less and 2 INTs more. The yardage is surprisingly close. Let's look at these numbers, first indoors then outdoors, spread out over 657 attempts, the number Brees had on the year.
Indoors:
473/657 72.3% 5,584 yards 8.5 YPA 58 TD 10 INT 120.6 QBR
Outdoors:
460/657 69.7% 5,321 yards 8.1 YPA 29 TD 19 INT 96.8 QBR
The difference in completions is Indoors +13. The difference in yardage is Indoors +263. Both are pretty small differences suggesting that Brees is roughly as efficient completing passes and gaining yardage in both environments. Where the significant differences lie is between the TDs and INTs. Brees is exactly twice as efficient throwing TDs indoors as outdoors. He's also almost almost twice as efficient avoiding mistakes indoors. Why the difference? I think it's clear. Those people saying Brees struggles indoors have a point.
Deep Balls
Brees' attempts 11+ yards in the air:
115/200 58% 2,494 yards 12.47 YPA 17 TDs 8 INTs 113.6 QBR
Rodgers' attempts 11+ yards in the air:
104/186 56% 2,615 yards 14.6 YPA 24 TDs 2 INTs 145.8 QBR
When you take Brees out of his element, the short ball, Rodgers reigns supreme. Some differences?
Rodgers has a 13% TD% compared to Brees' 8%
Rodgers has a 1% INT% compared to Brees' 4%
Rodgers has a full 2 yards YPA higher than Brees
Winners play well when the game is on the line
This is the most telling part of my analysis. One that uncovered a couple shocking truths about Brees. He doesn't play amazingly well when he's trailing. First off, he's thrown twice as many INTs in opponents' territory (6) than Rodgers (3). First lets look at his stats in the 4th quarter trailing by OR leading in the 4th quarter, in other words..how does he play when the game is close?
48/68 70.6% 520 yards 7.65 YPA 5 TD 1 INT 111.2 QBR
Compared to Rodgers:
25/36 69.4% 422 yards 11.72 YPA 5 TDs 0 INTs 148.4 QBR
While Brees played well, Rodgers played lights out. No mistakes. He trailed by 98 yards with 32 less attempts and scored 5 TDs. He had an astounding 11.72 YPA in those throws. That's the mark of a player whose team has full faith in him with the game on the line. Which comes to my next point: Rodgers never turned the ball over when trailing this year. Let's look at Brees' stats when trailing:
114/210 69% 1847 yards 8.80 YPA 14 TD 7 INT 104.2 QBR
Not bad, but Rodgers still outplayed him when trailing.
78/118 66% 1,093 yards 9.26 YPA 9 TD 0 INT 119.8 QBR
Rodgers scores much more efficiently and did not turn the ball over at all. His low-ish QB Rating is likely from the lower comp %.
How do both of them fare when the game is close, but they're winning? Here are their numbers when they're winning at any point in the game by 1 to 7 points:
Brees:
158/224 70.5% 1,771 yards 7.91 YPA 10 TDs 6 INTs 97.5 QBR
Rodgers:
109/167 65% 1,494 yards 8.95 YPA 14 TDs 1 INT 119.2 QBR
Again, Brees throws more INTs and less TDs with more attempts while Rodgers has a higher YPA. Truth is, Brees is inferior to Rodgers in most situations....except...
Brees runs up the score.
There, I said it. It's true. He's a compiler. Let the numbers from games they won by 15+ explain for me:
Brees:
164/224 73.2% 2,066 yards 9.22 YPA 26 TDs 3 INTs 134.6 QBR
Rodgers:
87/127 68.5% 1,255 yards 9.88 YPA 13 TDs 3 INTs 124.6 QBR
Now Brees can keep up with Rodgers, when he's kicking people when they're down. But who is the QB who REALLY helps his team? The answer has to be Rodgers. Rodgers doesn't run up the score. Rodgers doesn't stay in and throw TD passes when he doesn't have to. Brees does. Let's look at their numbers in games where they won by 14 or less or lost.
Brees:
304/433 70% 3,410 yards 7.88 YPA 20 TDs 11 INTs 98.2 QBR
Rodgers:
256/375 68% 3,388 yards 9.03 YPA 32 TDs 3 INTs 121.7 QBR
So when you take the blowout wins and you put in the games where the QBs had to play better, Rodgers did play better. Rodgers was the better QB this year and it had nothing to do with being a system QB. Rodgers just had the better year. Rodgers went out, won games, and sat down like I've been saying all along. Brees hung in and threw when he didn't need to and his numbers reflect that. In close games, Rodgers would have STILL broken the QB rating record. Brees would have had an okay season. Slightly above average. See the difference now?
Drew Brees can't win outdoors.
This is the reason I posted this. I decided to find more just because I'm insane . Brees really does decline away from the dome. He has trouble playing in the cold which may be a problem if the road to the Super Bowl goes through Lambeau. Let's look at the numbers, first indoors:
277/383 3,257 yards 72.3% completions 8.5 YPA 34 TDs 9% TD% 6 INTs 2% INT% 120.8 QB Rating
Pretty damn good if you ask me. Those are Aaron Rodgers numbers! Now outdoors.
191/279 2,219 yards 69.7% 8.1 YPA 12 TD 4% TD% 8 INT 3% INT% 96.4 QBR
Pretty sizable difference. 104 less completions 22 TDs less and 2 INTs more. The yardage is surprisingly close. Let's look at these numbers, first indoors then outdoors, spread out over 657 attempts, the number Brees had on the year.
Indoors:
473/657 72.3% 5,584 yards 8.5 YPA 58 TD 10 INT 120.6 QBR
Outdoors:
460/657 69.7% 5,321 yards 8.1 YPA 29 TD 19 INT 96.8 QBR
The difference in completions is Indoors +13. The difference in yardage is Indoors +263. Both are pretty small differences suggesting that Brees is roughly as efficient completing passes and gaining yardage in both environments. Where the significant differences lie is between the TDs and INTs. Brees is exactly twice as efficient throwing TDs indoors as outdoors. He's also almost almost twice as efficient avoiding mistakes indoors. Why the difference? I think it's clear. Those people saying Brees struggles indoors have a point.
Deep Balls
Brees' attempts 11+ yards in the air:
115/200 58% 2,494 yards 12.47 YPA 17 TDs 8 INTs 113.6 QBR
Rodgers' attempts 11+ yards in the air:
104/186 56% 2,615 yards 14.6 YPA 24 TDs 2 INTs 145.8 QBR
When you take Brees out of his element, the short ball, Rodgers reigns supreme. Some differences?
Rodgers has a 13% TD% compared to Brees' 8%
Rodgers has a 1% INT% compared to Brees' 4%
Rodgers has a full 2 yards YPA higher than Brees
Winners play well when the game is on the line
This is the most telling part of my analysis. One that uncovered a couple shocking truths about Brees. He doesn't play amazingly well when he's trailing. First off, he's thrown twice as many INTs in opponents' territory (6) than Rodgers (3). First lets look at his stats in the 4th quarter trailing by OR leading in the 4th quarter, in other words..how does he play when the game is close?
48/68 70.6% 520 yards 7.65 YPA 5 TD 1 INT 111.2 QBR
Compared to Rodgers:
25/36 69.4% 422 yards 11.72 YPA 5 TDs 0 INTs 148.4 QBR
While Brees played well, Rodgers played lights out. No mistakes. He trailed by 98 yards with 32 less attempts and scored 5 TDs. He had an astounding 11.72 YPA in those throws. That's the mark of a player whose team has full faith in him with the game on the line. Which comes to my next point: Rodgers never turned the ball over when trailing this year. Let's look at Brees' stats when trailing:
114/210 69% 1847 yards 8.80 YPA 14 TD 7 INT 104.2 QBR
Not bad, but Rodgers still outplayed him when trailing.
78/118 66% 1,093 yards 9.26 YPA 9 TD 0 INT 119.8 QBR
Rodgers scores much more efficiently and did not turn the ball over at all. His low-ish QB Rating is likely from the lower comp %.
How do both of them fare when the game is close, but they're winning? Here are their numbers when they're winning at any point in the game by 1 to 7 points:
Brees:
158/224 70.5% 1,771 yards 7.91 YPA 10 TDs 6 INTs 97.5 QBR
Rodgers:
109/167 65% 1,494 yards 8.95 YPA 14 TDs 1 INT 119.2 QBR
Again, Brees throws more INTs and less TDs with more attempts while Rodgers has a higher YPA. Truth is, Brees is inferior to Rodgers in most situations....except...
Brees runs up the score.
There, I said it. It's true. He's a compiler. Let the numbers from games they won by 15+ explain for me:
Brees:
164/224 73.2% 2,066 yards 9.22 YPA 26 TDs 3 INTs 134.6 QBR
Rodgers:
87/127 68.5% 1,255 yards 9.88 YPA 13 TDs 3 INTs 124.6 QBR
Now Brees can keep up with Rodgers, when he's kicking people when they're down. But who is the QB who REALLY helps his team? The answer has to be Rodgers. Rodgers doesn't run up the score. Rodgers doesn't stay in and throw TD passes when he doesn't have to. Brees does. Let's look at their numbers in games where they won by 14 or less or lost.
Brees:
304/433 70% 3,410 yards 7.88 YPA 20 TDs 11 INTs 98.2 QBR
Rodgers:
256/375 68% 3,388 yards 9.03 YPA 32 TDs 3 INTs 121.7 QBR
So when you take the blowout wins and you put in the games where the QBs had to play better, Rodgers did play better. Rodgers was the better QB this year and it had nothing to do with being a system QB. Rodgers just had the better year. Rodgers went out, won games, and sat down like I've been saying all along. Brees hung in and threw when he didn't need to and his numbers reflect that. In close games, Rodgers would have STILL broken the QB rating record. Brees would have had an okay season. Slightly above average. See the difference now?
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Year End Awards
It's that time of the year again! The time when I don't shut up for the entire offseason!
Plenty of crazy stuff happened this year, and my Packers are 15-1 and comfortably had the #1 seed locked up a couple weeks ago. First time since the 90s the Packers were this good! I'm not here to talk about the Packers, though...well....okay...maybe a little. Today we're going to look at all of the end of the year awards. I'm going to include all of the normal ones PLUS I'm going to make a ton of new ones up.
MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
I'm sure everyone guessed I would pick A-Rod. Let me convince you why I picked him. Let's take a look at his stat line, first normal and then more in depth.
343/502 68.3% 4,643 yards 45 TDs 9.0% TD% 6 INTs 1.2% INT% 9.2 YPA 122.5 QB Rating.
These stats are good enough to win the MVP, but some may argue Brees had a better year. Not really. It's actually not even close. Rodgers sat 9 quarters total during the season when the Packers were ahead. He has just 98 attempts in the 4th quarter, about 4.6 a game. Brees stayed in for the majority of all games. Brees' stats were volume. Let's look at Brees' stat line in depth.
468/657 71.2% 5,476 yards 46 TDs 7.0% TD% 14 INT 2.1% INT% 8.2 YPA 110.6 QB Rating.
On the surface, it looks better than Rodgers' season. If you look closely though, you'll see the mark of volume stats and excessive throwing. First, Brees completes a higher percentage of passes, and 125 more total, yet throws 1 more TD. He would have been below that number substantially had he not stayed in VS Carolina despite them being up by a wide margin. They also had him stay in vs Atlanta and throw another TD pass despite being up by a lot in order to secure the passing yardage record in week 15. Despite earning the record, Brees played almost the entire game the next week.
The biggest mark of a good QB is how efficient they are. Rodgers can score at will. Brees can to, to an extent, but Rodgers is better at it. 9% of Rodgers' passes ended up as a TD while only 7% of Brees' did. A full 2% difference. Brees out gained Rodgers through the air by 833 yards. Rodgers had almost a full yard more per attempt though, 9.2 to 8.3. Rodgers would need 596 attempts to beat Brees' total, a full 61 attempts less than Brees. Rodgers was also markedly safer with the ball tossing just 6 INTs compared to Brees' 14. 2.1% of Brees' throws were intercepted while only 1.2% of Rodgers' were picked off. Rodgers also broke the record for best QB rating ever in a season. Rodgers is the definition of efficient.
If you're not convinced, Rodgers is also a threat on his feet. He out gained Brees on the ground 267 yards to 86 and scored 3 TDs to Brees' 1.
It's pretty obvious who the clearcut winner should be. I won't even get into how superior Brees' running game and offensive line are.
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
As much bashing as I just did, Brees deserves a ton of credit for what he accomplished. He did break a record that's almost 30 years old. What diminishes this accomplishment is that Brady also broke Marino's record and is now second behind Brees. People can clearly see that Brees unnecessarily racked up yardage. Matthew Stafford also racked up over 5,000 yards on the season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings don't have much to be happy about. The Donovan McNabb experiment didn't work out (though honestly, nobody though it would). Adrian Peterson blew out his knee and it will be questionable whether or not he is able to be ready for the opener next September. Percy Harvin continues to battle injuries. The secondary is swiss cheese. The offensive line is horrid. Pretty much the only thing the Vikings have going for them is DE Jared Allen. Allen played his heart out all year racking up 66 tackles, 22 sacks, 4 fumbles forced, 4 fumbles recovered, 3 passes defended and 1 INT. Mind you these sacks came on a team that was ALWAYS trailing this year. That to me makes his accomplishment even bigger.
I understand he probably won't win it. Who will win it is Terrell Suggs just because he's Terrell Suggs and he's on a winning team. If you want to hear me bitch about how being on a winning team shouldn't automatically qualify you for an award and being on a losing team shouldn't automatically disqualify you, look back in the archives, I did an angry post about it. Jared Allen was one of the few good defenders in a season where defense was almost absent. 5 teams scored over 500 points.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Surprising the league in his first 2 games, Cam Newton threw for over 800 yards. He quickly quieted doubters, like myself, with his play. While his hand cooled down a bit, his performance never did. Take a look at his passing numbers.
310/517 60% 4,051 yards 21 TD 4.1 TD% 17 INT 3.3 INT% 7.8 YPA 84.5 QB Rating.
Andy Dalton had slightly better QB numbers and his team won more than Carolina, so many must be wondering why I chose Newton over Dalton. Newton's rushing ability crushes Dalton's chance at the award. Newton rushed for 706 yards and 14 TDs with a 5.6 YPC. Unreal for a rookie.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller, LB, Denver Broncos
Von Miller is just a pure animal. In his first season as a pro, he started 15 games, missing one with injury, and performed at an All-Pro level. Miller racked up 51 tackles and 11.5 sacks. He also defended 4 passes and forced 3 fumbles. Miller will be a force for years to come and he's already established himself as one of the better players in the NFL.
Comeback Player of the Year: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
I know some may feel that the comeback player of the year should be an established player who was injured and then came back. While Stafford wasn't "established," he certainly showed at ton of potential in his prior two years starting. If you don't believe me, go back to the Cleveland-Detroit game from 2009 and watched the Sound FX clip of Stafford hurting his shoulder. He's on the ground in pain, screaming. He comes off for one play, goes back in the next, throws the game winning TD. The kid has heart and potential. Stafford came back in a huge way this year, let's see his numbers:
421/663 5,038 yards 63.5% 41 TDs 6.2 TD% 16 INT 2.4 INT% 7.6 YPA 97.2 QB Rating.
He's quickly established himself as a top 5-10 QB after being out for the last 2 seasons with an injury. To me that's a bigger comeback than most we've seen.
Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers
I'd love to say McCarthy, but he already had an awesome team from last year. Harbaugh came in on his first season as a head coach and turned the 49ers into a dominant team. No question on this one. Harbaugh deserves it.
Now, for some fun awards:
The NASA Astronaut Award: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
That leap vs Arizona was unreal.
The Ron Jeremy Giant Package Award: James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
No questioning his manhood after that hit he put on Colt McCoy.
The Payton Hillis White Guy Excelling at a Skill Position Award: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
Wes Welker is the man, but Jordy Nelson scoring 15 TDs is unreal.
The Ryan Leaf Meltdown Award: The Entire New York Jets Franchise
Unreal how nuclear that locker room can get.
The Ryan Leaf Overhyped Draft Prospect Award: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
He turns his back to the freaking pass rush!
The Chicago Cubs Unlucky Franchise Award: The Houston Texans
They win their first division title and advance to the playoffs only to lose their starting QB.
The Tim Couch Awful QB Award: Caleb Hanie, QB, Chicago Bears
He was just terrible this year.
The Brett Favre Hype and Slight Delivery Only To Regress Back to Being Mediocre Award: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills
He played so well so early. Losing Fred Jackson couldn't have helped, but he was playing miserable at some points.
The John Elway Overrated Award: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
He's not awful. He's not great. He's a serviceable starter. Every postseason, without fail, he's given the nickname "Matty Ice." He doesn't deserve to get a nickname predicated upon him being "cool" under pressure. A good nickname for him is "Matt."
Plenty of crazy stuff happened this year, and my Packers are 15-1 and comfortably had the #1 seed locked up a couple weeks ago. First time since the 90s the Packers were this good! I'm not here to talk about the Packers, though...well....okay...maybe a little. Today we're going to look at all of the end of the year awards. I'm going to include all of the normal ones PLUS I'm going to make a ton of new ones up.
MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
I'm sure everyone guessed I would pick A-Rod. Let me convince you why I picked him. Let's take a look at his stat line, first normal and then more in depth.
343/502 68.3% 4,643 yards 45 TDs 9.0% TD% 6 INTs 1.2% INT% 9.2 YPA 122.5 QB Rating.
These stats are good enough to win the MVP, but some may argue Brees had a better year. Not really. It's actually not even close. Rodgers sat 9 quarters total during the season when the Packers were ahead. He has just 98 attempts in the 4th quarter, about 4.6 a game. Brees stayed in for the majority of all games. Brees' stats were volume. Let's look at Brees' stat line in depth.
468/657 71.2% 5,476 yards 46 TDs 7.0% TD% 14 INT 2.1% INT% 8.2 YPA 110.6 QB Rating.
On the surface, it looks better than Rodgers' season. If you look closely though, you'll see the mark of volume stats and excessive throwing. First, Brees completes a higher percentage of passes, and 125 more total, yet throws 1 more TD. He would have been below that number substantially had he not stayed in VS Carolina despite them being up by a wide margin. They also had him stay in vs Atlanta and throw another TD pass despite being up by a lot in order to secure the passing yardage record in week 15. Despite earning the record, Brees played almost the entire game the next week.
The biggest mark of a good QB is how efficient they are. Rodgers can score at will. Brees can to, to an extent, but Rodgers is better at it. 9% of Rodgers' passes ended up as a TD while only 7% of Brees' did. A full 2% difference. Brees out gained Rodgers through the air by 833 yards. Rodgers had almost a full yard more per attempt though, 9.2 to 8.3. Rodgers would need 596 attempts to beat Brees' total, a full 61 attempts less than Brees. Rodgers was also markedly safer with the ball tossing just 6 INTs compared to Brees' 14. 2.1% of Brees' throws were intercepted while only 1.2% of Rodgers' were picked off. Rodgers also broke the record for best QB rating ever in a season. Rodgers is the definition of efficient.
If you're not convinced, Rodgers is also a threat on his feet. He out gained Brees on the ground 267 yards to 86 and scored 3 TDs to Brees' 1.
It's pretty obvious who the clearcut winner should be. I won't even get into how superior Brees' running game and offensive line are.
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
As much bashing as I just did, Brees deserves a ton of credit for what he accomplished. He did break a record that's almost 30 years old. What diminishes this accomplishment is that Brady also broke Marino's record and is now second behind Brees. People can clearly see that Brees unnecessarily racked up yardage. Matthew Stafford also racked up over 5,000 yards on the season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings don't have much to be happy about. The Donovan McNabb experiment didn't work out (though honestly, nobody though it would). Adrian Peterson blew out his knee and it will be questionable whether or not he is able to be ready for the opener next September. Percy Harvin continues to battle injuries. The secondary is swiss cheese. The offensive line is horrid. Pretty much the only thing the Vikings have going for them is DE Jared Allen. Allen played his heart out all year racking up 66 tackles, 22 sacks, 4 fumbles forced, 4 fumbles recovered, 3 passes defended and 1 INT. Mind you these sacks came on a team that was ALWAYS trailing this year. That to me makes his accomplishment even bigger.
I understand he probably won't win it. Who will win it is Terrell Suggs just because he's Terrell Suggs and he's on a winning team. If you want to hear me bitch about how being on a winning team shouldn't automatically qualify you for an award and being on a losing team shouldn't automatically disqualify you, look back in the archives, I did an angry post about it. Jared Allen was one of the few good defenders in a season where defense was almost absent. 5 teams scored over 500 points.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Surprising the league in his first 2 games, Cam Newton threw for over 800 yards. He quickly quieted doubters, like myself, with his play. While his hand cooled down a bit, his performance never did. Take a look at his passing numbers.
310/517 60% 4,051 yards 21 TD 4.1 TD% 17 INT 3.3 INT% 7.8 YPA 84.5 QB Rating.
Andy Dalton had slightly better QB numbers and his team won more than Carolina, so many must be wondering why I chose Newton over Dalton. Newton's rushing ability crushes Dalton's chance at the award. Newton rushed for 706 yards and 14 TDs with a 5.6 YPC. Unreal for a rookie.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller, LB, Denver Broncos
Von Miller is just a pure animal. In his first season as a pro, he started 15 games, missing one with injury, and performed at an All-Pro level. Miller racked up 51 tackles and 11.5 sacks. He also defended 4 passes and forced 3 fumbles. Miller will be a force for years to come and he's already established himself as one of the better players in the NFL.
Comeback Player of the Year: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
I know some may feel that the comeback player of the year should be an established player who was injured and then came back. While Stafford wasn't "established," he certainly showed at ton of potential in his prior two years starting. If you don't believe me, go back to the Cleveland-Detroit game from 2009 and watched the Sound FX clip of Stafford hurting his shoulder. He's on the ground in pain, screaming. He comes off for one play, goes back in the next, throws the game winning TD. The kid has heart and potential. Stafford came back in a huge way this year, let's see his numbers:
421/663 5,038 yards 63.5% 41 TDs 6.2 TD% 16 INT 2.4 INT% 7.6 YPA 97.2 QB Rating.
He's quickly established himself as a top 5-10 QB after being out for the last 2 seasons with an injury. To me that's a bigger comeback than most we've seen.
Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers
I'd love to say McCarthy, but he already had an awesome team from last year. Harbaugh came in on his first season as a head coach and turned the 49ers into a dominant team. No question on this one. Harbaugh deserves it.
Now, for some fun awards:
The NASA Astronaut Award: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
That leap vs Arizona was unreal.
The Ron Jeremy Giant Package Award: James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
No questioning his manhood after that hit he put on Colt McCoy.
The Payton Hillis White Guy Excelling at a Skill Position Award: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
Wes Welker is the man, but Jordy Nelson scoring 15 TDs is unreal.
The Ryan Leaf Meltdown Award: The Entire New York Jets Franchise
Unreal how nuclear that locker room can get.
The Ryan Leaf Overhyped Draft Prospect Award: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
He turns his back to the freaking pass rush!
The Chicago Cubs Unlucky Franchise Award: The Houston Texans
They win their first division title and advance to the playoffs only to lose their starting QB.
The Tim Couch Awful QB Award: Caleb Hanie, QB, Chicago Bears
He was just terrible this year.
The Brett Favre Hype and Slight Delivery Only To Regress Back to Being Mediocre Award: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills
He played so well so early. Losing Fred Jackson couldn't have helped, but he was playing miserable at some points.
The John Elway Overrated Award: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
He's not awful. He's not great. He's a serviceable starter. Every postseason, without fail, he's given the nickname "Matty Ice." He doesn't deserve to get a nickname predicated upon him being "cool" under pressure. A good nickname for him is "Matt."
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Fantasy vs Reality
During many football discussions, I have come across this argument several times.
"He's good, but he's just a good fantasy player."
After struggling to keep my brain from exploding, I say,
"What is the difference? Don't fantasy points come directly from the game?"
Then I get an hour of BS about how you can be some clutch awesome player, but not put up good fantasy numbers.
Here's the deal people. There is no difference between fantasy production and on the field production. If you're a good player you will be both a good fantasy player and a good on the field player. Peyton Manning is literally amazing. Last year, he played AMAZING despite having no supporting cast aside from Reggie Wayne. Because the Colts didn't win, Peyton Manning is automatically at fault to some people. This is when people turn their brains off and refuse to admit he's a top 5 QB. He can't win! He's got a losing playoff record! Peyton Manning can go 50/50 500 Yards and 5 TDs and he would be "just a good fantasy player" to most football fans.
This needs to stop. Football is a sport consisting of offense, defense, and special teams. 3 parts that are not related. 11 guys are on the field at any give time for each unit. QB is one of those 10. While QB is more important, it is not always the QBs fault for a win or loss. There was a game between the Jets and Dolphins when Marino was playing where he threw for 400+ yards and 6 TDs and the Dolphins lost 62-45. Is it really Marino's fault? Is he really just a "fantasy" QB who can't win? Should he have played LB and picked off the opposing QB?
Special teams has a huge effect too. This past season, the Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers (had to get that in there) played the Atlanta Falcons during the regular season. The Packers, trailing by 7, were lead on a 90 yard drive by Aaron Rodgers. The drive was capped off by a 10 yard TD pass to Jordy Nelson on 4th down. The score was tied at 17. There is under a minute left when the Packers kickoff. Falcons return man Eric Weems gets a big return to the 30 and when he is tackled, Packers LB Matt Wilhelm grabs his face mask. 15 yards were tacked on. Matt Ryan completed a couple of easy passes and he kicked a FG to win the game in regulation. Aaron Rodgers did everything right to tie the game, but his special teams failed him. True, Rodgers could have done more during the game to win, but it was a tightly contested matchup.
Just because a QB is on the losing end of a game, doesn't mean he is bad. When the Colts and Patriots play, is the losing QB suddenly bad and "just a fantasy player"? Of course not. So remember this the next time you get into a debate with someone on football. Romo, Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees, etc., are all great QBs. And no. Mark Sanchez is neither clutch nor better than those guys.
"He's good, but he's just a good fantasy player."
After struggling to keep my brain from exploding, I say,
"What is the difference? Don't fantasy points come directly from the game?"
Then I get an hour of BS about how you can be some clutch awesome player, but not put up good fantasy numbers.
Here's the deal people. There is no difference between fantasy production and on the field production. If you're a good player you will be both a good fantasy player and a good on the field player. Peyton Manning is literally amazing. Last year, he played AMAZING despite having no supporting cast aside from Reggie Wayne. Because the Colts didn't win, Peyton Manning is automatically at fault to some people. This is when people turn their brains off and refuse to admit he's a top 5 QB. He can't win! He's got a losing playoff record! Peyton Manning can go 50/50 500 Yards and 5 TDs and he would be "just a good fantasy player" to most football fans.
This needs to stop. Football is a sport consisting of offense, defense, and special teams. 3 parts that are not related. 11 guys are on the field at any give time for each unit. QB is one of those 10. While QB is more important, it is not always the QBs fault for a win or loss. There was a game between the Jets and Dolphins when Marino was playing where he threw for 400+ yards and 6 TDs and the Dolphins lost 62-45. Is it really Marino's fault? Is he really just a "fantasy" QB who can't win? Should he have played LB and picked off the opposing QB?
Special teams has a huge effect too. This past season, the Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers (had to get that in there) played the Atlanta Falcons during the regular season. The Packers, trailing by 7, were lead on a 90 yard drive by Aaron Rodgers. The drive was capped off by a 10 yard TD pass to Jordy Nelson on 4th down. The score was tied at 17. There is under a minute left when the Packers kickoff. Falcons return man Eric Weems gets a big return to the 30 and when he is tackled, Packers LB Matt Wilhelm grabs his face mask. 15 yards were tacked on. Matt Ryan completed a couple of easy passes and he kicked a FG to win the game in regulation. Aaron Rodgers did everything right to tie the game, but his special teams failed him. True, Rodgers could have done more during the game to win, but it was a tightly contested matchup.
Just because a QB is on the losing end of a game, doesn't mean he is bad. When the Colts and Patriots play, is the losing QB suddenly bad and "just a fantasy player"? Of course not. So remember this the next time you get into a debate with someone on football. Romo, Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees, etc., are all great QBs. And no. Mark Sanchez is neither clutch nor better than those guys.
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