The draft is quickly approaching, it's just over 2 months away. Every year when the draft comes we see the whole tired Brady storyline about him being a 6th round pick and now he's a 3-time champ and a 2-time MVP. Every 6th round pick that gets taken, especially QB, get's all this hype by fans of the teams that took them. You hear it all the time, "Dude, so and so is going to be great!" "He's a 6th round pick dude, relax." "Brady was a 6th round pick!!" But this logic is so unbelievably flawed.
For this post, assume a "good" QB is a QB who starts at least 1 full season and has at least a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. I think those are pretty modest standards for a QB. When it's close, I'll look at other numbers (YPA, QBR, etc.) to determine whether or not the player was "good")
First, let's look at the QBs drafted in the 6th round since Brady was drafted:
2000:
Marc Bulger, New Orleans Saints
Spergon Wynn, Cleveland Browns
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Todd Husak, Washington Redskins
JaJuan Seider, San Diego Chargers
This year, we have 2 good QBs in the draft. One is obviously Tom Brady, the other is Marc Bulger. Bulger threw for almost 23,000 yards and 122 TDs. Spergon Wynn threw 1 TD to 7 INTs in his career. So right now, we're at 2-3. 3 QBs in that group weren't successful at all.
2001:
Josh Booty, Seattle Seahawks
Josh Heupel, Miami Dolphins
Neither of those guys did anything, we're now at 2-5.
2002:
J.T. O'Sullivan, New Orleans Saints
Steve Bellisari, St. Louis Rams
O'Sullivan did start 8 games, but didn't have any success. Bellisari was converted to safety and is now a FA in the Arena Football League. 2-7.
2003:
Drew Henson, Houston Texans
Brooks Bollinger, New York Jets
Kliff Kingsbury, New England Patriots
3 guys that panned out to nothing, surprised? I'm not. 2-10.
2004:
Andy Hall, Philadelphia Eagles
Josh Harris, Baltimore Ravens
Jim Sorgi, Indianapolis Colts
Jeff Smoker, St. Louis Rams
4 more career backups. 2-14.
2005:
Derek Anderson, Baltimore Ravens
Anderson has had limited success. He has close to 40 starts, over 9,000 yards, and 53:55 TD:INT ratio. I think that's good enough to be considered "good." 3-14
2006:
Reggie McNeal, Cincinnati Bengals
Bruce Gradkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gradkowski fulfills the starts requirement, but falls a bit short on the TD:INT requirement. His 5.7 YPA and 65.8 QBR seal the deal. He wasn't very good. 3-16
2007:
Jordan Palmer, Washington Redskins
Not much to say here. Inferior to his older brother, Carson. 3-17.
2008:
Colt Brennan, Washington Redskins
Andre' Woodson, New York Giants
Unspectacular, 3-19
2009:
Tom Brandstater, Denver Broncos
Mike Teel, Seattle Seahawks
Keith Null, St. Louis Rams
Curtis Painter, Indianapolis Colts
4 guys with not much going on between them. Null and Painter both got some extended playing time, but neither performed particularly well. 3-23.
2010:
Rusty Smith, Tennessee Titans
Dan LeFevour, Chicago Bears
Joe Webb, Minnesota Vikings
Tony Pike, Carolina Panthers
Not much to say again, 3-27.
I'm leaving 2011 out because it's not fair to judge first year guys especially with no true offseason.
So let's analyze this a bit. Out of 30 QBs taken from 2000-2010 in the 6th round, only 3 have gone on to be successful. Just 10%. 1 of the 3 wasn't even extremely successful. Bulger was a good starter, but was never outrageously good even with Torry Holt and Issac Bruce.
Taking this further, let's see the current breakdown of starting NFL QBs.
Arizona: Kevin Kolb, 2nd Round
Atlanta: Matt Ryan, 1st Round
Baltimore: Joe Flacco, 1st Round
Buffalo: Ryan Fitzpatrick, 7th Round
Carolina: Cam Newton, 1st Round
Chicago: Jay Cutler, 1st Round
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton, 2nd Round
Cleveland: Colt McCoy, 3rd Round
Dallas: Tony Romo, undrafted
Denver: Tim Tebow, 1st Round
Detroit: Matthew Stafford, 1st Round
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, 1st Round
Houston: Matt Schaub, 3rd Round
Indianapolis: Peyton Manning, 1st Round
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert, 1st Round
Kansas City: Matt Cassel, 7th Round
Miami: Chad Henne, 2nd Round/Matt Moore, undrafted
Minnesota: Christian Ponder, 1st Round
New England: Tom Brady, 6th Round
New Orleans: Drew Brees, 2nd Round
New York G: Eli Manning, 1st Round
New York J: Mark Sanchez, 1st Round
Oakland Raiders: Carson Palmer, 1st Round
Philadelphia: Michael Vick, 1st Round
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round
San Diego, Philip Rivers, 1st Round
San Francisco: Alex Smith, 1st Round
Seattle: Tavaris Jackson, 2nd Round
St. Louis: Sam Bradford, 1st Round
Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman, 1st Round
Tennessee: Matt Hasselbeck, 6th Round
Washington: Rex Grossman, 1st Round/John Beck, 2nd Round
1st Rounders: 20
2nd Rounders: 6
3rd Rounders: 2
6th Rounders: 2
7th Rounders: 2
Undrafted: 2
Just 6% of the starting QBs in the NFL are 6th round picks. 59% are 1st round picks. 76% are 1st or 2nd round picks.
What round were the SB winning QBs drafted in?
Going back to 1990:
Eli Manning (2):1st Round
Aaron Rodgers: 1st Round
Drew Brees: 2nd Round
Ben Roethlisberger (2): 1st Round
Peyton Manning: 1st Round
Tom Brady (3): 6th Round
Brad Johnson: 9th Round
Trent Dilfer: 1st Round
Kurt Warner: Undrafted
John Elway (2): 1st Round
Brett Favre (2): 2nd Round
Troy Aikman (3): 1st Round
Steve Young: 1st Round
Mark Rypien: 6th Round
Jeff Hostetler: 3rd round
In 23 Super Bowls, just 4 have been won by 6th round picks. Only 2 different players did it. Where you're QB was picked DOES matter. 17 of the 23 winners have been 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round picks.
So remember all of this the next time some idiot starts spouting off how great his 6th round pick is. It DOES matter where your QB is taken. There's a chance that he may be good later on in the draft, but the majority of good QBs come from the early rounds.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
My case for Aaron Rodgers as MVP
This MVP race is interesting. It's divided between two factions, one that believes that Rodgers should win because his efficiency is through the roof. The other believes that Brees should win because his gross stats and accuracy are through the roof. Me being insane, I figured I should look deeper than the gross numbers of each to really paint a picture of the two QBs. I'm going to talk about a bunch of accusations of both guys and compare stats. Enjoy guys!
Drew Brees can't win outdoors.
This is the reason I posted this. I decided to find more just because I'm insane . Brees really does decline away from the dome. He has trouble playing in the cold which may be a problem if the road to the Super Bowl goes through Lambeau. Let's look at the numbers, first indoors:
277/383 3,257 yards 72.3% completions 8.5 YPA 34 TDs 9% TD% 6 INTs 2% INT% 120.8 QB Rating
Pretty damn good if you ask me. Those are Aaron Rodgers numbers! Now outdoors.
191/279 2,219 yards 69.7% 8.1 YPA 12 TD 4% TD% 8 INT 3% INT% 96.4 QBR
Pretty sizable difference. 104 less completions 22 TDs less and 2 INTs more. The yardage is surprisingly close. Let's look at these numbers, first indoors then outdoors, spread out over 657 attempts, the number Brees had on the year.
Indoors:
473/657 72.3% 5,584 yards 8.5 YPA 58 TD 10 INT 120.6 QBR
Outdoors:
460/657 69.7% 5,321 yards 8.1 YPA 29 TD 19 INT 96.8 QBR
The difference in completions is Indoors +13. The difference in yardage is Indoors +263. Both are pretty small differences suggesting that Brees is roughly as efficient completing passes and gaining yardage in both environments. Where the significant differences lie is between the TDs and INTs. Brees is exactly twice as efficient throwing TDs indoors as outdoors. He's also almost almost twice as efficient avoiding mistakes indoors. Why the difference? I think it's clear. Those people saying Brees struggles indoors have a point.
Deep Balls
Brees' attempts 11+ yards in the air:
115/200 58% 2,494 yards 12.47 YPA 17 TDs 8 INTs 113.6 QBR
Rodgers' attempts 11+ yards in the air:
104/186 56% 2,615 yards 14.6 YPA 24 TDs 2 INTs 145.8 QBR
When you take Brees out of his element, the short ball, Rodgers reigns supreme. Some differences?
Rodgers has a 13% TD% compared to Brees' 8%
Rodgers has a 1% INT% compared to Brees' 4%
Rodgers has a full 2 yards YPA higher than Brees
Winners play well when the game is on the line
This is the most telling part of my analysis. One that uncovered a couple shocking truths about Brees. He doesn't play amazingly well when he's trailing. First off, he's thrown twice as many INTs in opponents' territory (6) than Rodgers (3). First lets look at his stats in the 4th quarter trailing by OR leading in the 4th quarter, in other words..how does he play when the game is close?
48/68 70.6% 520 yards 7.65 YPA 5 TD 1 INT 111.2 QBR
Compared to Rodgers:
25/36 69.4% 422 yards 11.72 YPA 5 TDs 0 INTs 148.4 QBR
While Brees played well, Rodgers played lights out. No mistakes. He trailed by 98 yards with 32 less attempts and scored 5 TDs. He had an astounding 11.72 YPA in those throws. That's the mark of a player whose team has full faith in him with the game on the line. Which comes to my next point: Rodgers never turned the ball over when trailing this year. Let's look at Brees' stats when trailing:
114/210 69% 1847 yards 8.80 YPA 14 TD 7 INT 104.2 QBR
Not bad, but Rodgers still outplayed him when trailing.
78/118 66% 1,093 yards 9.26 YPA 9 TD 0 INT 119.8 QBR
Rodgers scores much more efficiently and did not turn the ball over at all. His low-ish QB Rating is likely from the lower comp %.
How do both of them fare when the game is close, but they're winning? Here are their numbers when they're winning at any point in the game by 1 to 7 points:
Brees:
158/224 70.5% 1,771 yards 7.91 YPA 10 TDs 6 INTs 97.5 QBR
Rodgers:
109/167 65% 1,494 yards 8.95 YPA 14 TDs 1 INT 119.2 QBR
Again, Brees throws more INTs and less TDs with more attempts while Rodgers has a higher YPA. Truth is, Brees is inferior to Rodgers in most situations....except...
Brees runs up the score.
There, I said it. It's true. He's a compiler. Let the numbers from games they won by 15+ explain for me:
Brees:
164/224 73.2% 2,066 yards 9.22 YPA 26 TDs 3 INTs 134.6 QBR
Rodgers:
87/127 68.5% 1,255 yards 9.88 YPA 13 TDs 3 INTs 124.6 QBR
Now Brees can keep up with Rodgers, when he's kicking people when they're down. But who is the QB who REALLY helps his team? The answer has to be Rodgers. Rodgers doesn't run up the score. Rodgers doesn't stay in and throw TD passes when he doesn't have to. Brees does. Let's look at their numbers in games where they won by 14 or less or lost.
Brees:
304/433 70% 3,410 yards 7.88 YPA 20 TDs 11 INTs 98.2 QBR
Rodgers:
256/375 68% 3,388 yards 9.03 YPA 32 TDs 3 INTs 121.7 QBR
So when you take the blowout wins and you put in the games where the QBs had to play better, Rodgers did play better. Rodgers was the better QB this year and it had nothing to do with being a system QB. Rodgers just had the better year. Rodgers went out, won games, and sat down like I've been saying all along. Brees hung in and threw when he didn't need to and his numbers reflect that. In close games, Rodgers would have STILL broken the QB rating record. Brees would have had an okay season. Slightly above average. See the difference now?
Drew Brees can't win outdoors.
This is the reason I posted this. I decided to find more just because I'm insane . Brees really does decline away from the dome. He has trouble playing in the cold which may be a problem if the road to the Super Bowl goes through Lambeau. Let's look at the numbers, first indoors:
277/383 3,257 yards 72.3% completions 8.5 YPA 34 TDs 9% TD% 6 INTs 2% INT% 120.8 QB Rating
Pretty damn good if you ask me. Those are Aaron Rodgers numbers! Now outdoors.
191/279 2,219 yards 69.7% 8.1 YPA 12 TD 4% TD% 8 INT 3% INT% 96.4 QBR
Pretty sizable difference. 104 less completions 22 TDs less and 2 INTs more. The yardage is surprisingly close. Let's look at these numbers, first indoors then outdoors, spread out over 657 attempts, the number Brees had on the year.
Indoors:
473/657 72.3% 5,584 yards 8.5 YPA 58 TD 10 INT 120.6 QBR
Outdoors:
460/657 69.7% 5,321 yards 8.1 YPA 29 TD 19 INT 96.8 QBR
The difference in completions is Indoors +13. The difference in yardage is Indoors +263. Both are pretty small differences suggesting that Brees is roughly as efficient completing passes and gaining yardage in both environments. Where the significant differences lie is between the TDs and INTs. Brees is exactly twice as efficient throwing TDs indoors as outdoors. He's also almost almost twice as efficient avoiding mistakes indoors. Why the difference? I think it's clear. Those people saying Brees struggles indoors have a point.
Deep Balls
Brees' attempts 11+ yards in the air:
115/200 58% 2,494 yards 12.47 YPA 17 TDs 8 INTs 113.6 QBR
Rodgers' attempts 11+ yards in the air:
104/186 56% 2,615 yards 14.6 YPA 24 TDs 2 INTs 145.8 QBR
When you take Brees out of his element, the short ball, Rodgers reigns supreme. Some differences?
Rodgers has a 13% TD% compared to Brees' 8%
Rodgers has a 1% INT% compared to Brees' 4%
Rodgers has a full 2 yards YPA higher than Brees
Winners play well when the game is on the line
This is the most telling part of my analysis. One that uncovered a couple shocking truths about Brees. He doesn't play amazingly well when he's trailing. First off, he's thrown twice as many INTs in opponents' territory (6) than Rodgers (3). First lets look at his stats in the 4th quarter trailing by OR leading in the 4th quarter, in other words..how does he play when the game is close?
48/68 70.6% 520 yards 7.65 YPA 5 TD 1 INT 111.2 QBR
Compared to Rodgers:
25/36 69.4% 422 yards 11.72 YPA 5 TDs 0 INTs 148.4 QBR
While Brees played well, Rodgers played lights out. No mistakes. He trailed by 98 yards with 32 less attempts and scored 5 TDs. He had an astounding 11.72 YPA in those throws. That's the mark of a player whose team has full faith in him with the game on the line. Which comes to my next point: Rodgers never turned the ball over when trailing this year. Let's look at Brees' stats when trailing:
114/210 69% 1847 yards 8.80 YPA 14 TD 7 INT 104.2 QBR
Not bad, but Rodgers still outplayed him when trailing.
78/118 66% 1,093 yards 9.26 YPA 9 TD 0 INT 119.8 QBR
Rodgers scores much more efficiently and did not turn the ball over at all. His low-ish QB Rating is likely from the lower comp %.
How do both of them fare when the game is close, but they're winning? Here are their numbers when they're winning at any point in the game by 1 to 7 points:
Brees:
158/224 70.5% 1,771 yards 7.91 YPA 10 TDs 6 INTs 97.5 QBR
Rodgers:
109/167 65% 1,494 yards 8.95 YPA 14 TDs 1 INT 119.2 QBR
Again, Brees throws more INTs and less TDs with more attempts while Rodgers has a higher YPA. Truth is, Brees is inferior to Rodgers in most situations....except...
Brees runs up the score.
There, I said it. It's true. He's a compiler. Let the numbers from games they won by 15+ explain for me:
Brees:
164/224 73.2% 2,066 yards 9.22 YPA 26 TDs 3 INTs 134.6 QBR
Rodgers:
87/127 68.5% 1,255 yards 9.88 YPA 13 TDs 3 INTs 124.6 QBR
Now Brees can keep up with Rodgers, when he's kicking people when they're down. But who is the QB who REALLY helps his team? The answer has to be Rodgers. Rodgers doesn't run up the score. Rodgers doesn't stay in and throw TD passes when he doesn't have to. Brees does. Let's look at their numbers in games where they won by 14 or less or lost.
Brees:
304/433 70% 3,410 yards 7.88 YPA 20 TDs 11 INTs 98.2 QBR
Rodgers:
256/375 68% 3,388 yards 9.03 YPA 32 TDs 3 INTs 121.7 QBR
So when you take the blowout wins and you put in the games where the QBs had to play better, Rodgers did play better. Rodgers was the better QB this year and it had nothing to do with being a system QB. Rodgers just had the better year. Rodgers went out, won games, and sat down like I've been saying all along. Brees hung in and threw when he didn't need to and his numbers reflect that. In close games, Rodgers would have STILL broken the QB rating record. Brees would have had an okay season. Slightly above average. See the difference now?
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Year End Awards
It's that time of the year again! The time when I don't shut up for the entire offseason!
Plenty of crazy stuff happened this year, and my Packers are 15-1 and comfortably had the #1 seed locked up a couple weeks ago. First time since the 90s the Packers were this good! I'm not here to talk about the Packers, though...well....okay...maybe a little. Today we're going to look at all of the end of the year awards. I'm going to include all of the normal ones PLUS I'm going to make a ton of new ones up.
MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
I'm sure everyone guessed I would pick A-Rod. Let me convince you why I picked him. Let's take a look at his stat line, first normal and then more in depth.
343/502 68.3% 4,643 yards 45 TDs 9.0% TD% 6 INTs 1.2% INT% 9.2 YPA 122.5 QB Rating.
These stats are good enough to win the MVP, but some may argue Brees had a better year. Not really. It's actually not even close. Rodgers sat 9 quarters total during the season when the Packers were ahead. He has just 98 attempts in the 4th quarter, about 4.6 a game. Brees stayed in for the majority of all games. Brees' stats were volume. Let's look at Brees' stat line in depth.
468/657 71.2% 5,476 yards 46 TDs 7.0% TD% 14 INT 2.1% INT% 8.2 YPA 110.6 QB Rating.
On the surface, it looks better than Rodgers' season. If you look closely though, you'll see the mark of volume stats and excessive throwing. First, Brees completes a higher percentage of passes, and 125 more total, yet throws 1 more TD. He would have been below that number substantially had he not stayed in VS Carolina despite them being up by a wide margin. They also had him stay in vs Atlanta and throw another TD pass despite being up by a lot in order to secure the passing yardage record in week 15. Despite earning the record, Brees played almost the entire game the next week.
The biggest mark of a good QB is how efficient they are. Rodgers can score at will. Brees can to, to an extent, but Rodgers is better at it. 9% of Rodgers' passes ended up as a TD while only 7% of Brees' did. A full 2% difference. Brees out gained Rodgers through the air by 833 yards. Rodgers had almost a full yard more per attempt though, 9.2 to 8.3. Rodgers would need 596 attempts to beat Brees' total, a full 61 attempts less than Brees. Rodgers was also markedly safer with the ball tossing just 6 INTs compared to Brees' 14. 2.1% of Brees' throws were intercepted while only 1.2% of Rodgers' were picked off. Rodgers also broke the record for best QB rating ever in a season. Rodgers is the definition of efficient.
If you're not convinced, Rodgers is also a threat on his feet. He out gained Brees on the ground 267 yards to 86 and scored 3 TDs to Brees' 1.
It's pretty obvious who the clearcut winner should be. I won't even get into how superior Brees' running game and offensive line are.
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
As much bashing as I just did, Brees deserves a ton of credit for what he accomplished. He did break a record that's almost 30 years old. What diminishes this accomplishment is that Brady also broke Marino's record and is now second behind Brees. People can clearly see that Brees unnecessarily racked up yardage. Matthew Stafford also racked up over 5,000 yards on the season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings don't have much to be happy about. The Donovan McNabb experiment didn't work out (though honestly, nobody though it would). Adrian Peterson blew out his knee and it will be questionable whether or not he is able to be ready for the opener next September. Percy Harvin continues to battle injuries. The secondary is swiss cheese. The offensive line is horrid. Pretty much the only thing the Vikings have going for them is DE Jared Allen. Allen played his heart out all year racking up 66 tackles, 22 sacks, 4 fumbles forced, 4 fumbles recovered, 3 passes defended and 1 INT. Mind you these sacks came on a team that was ALWAYS trailing this year. That to me makes his accomplishment even bigger.
I understand he probably won't win it. Who will win it is Terrell Suggs just because he's Terrell Suggs and he's on a winning team. If you want to hear me bitch about how being on a winning team shouldn't automatically qualify you for an award and being on a losing team shouldn't automatically disqualify you, look back in the archives, I did an angry post about it. Jared Allen was one of the few good defenders in a season where defense was almost absent. 5 teams scored over 500 points.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Surprising the league in his first 2 games, Cam Newton threw for over 800 yards. He quickly quieted doubters, like myself, with his play. While his hand cooled down a bit, his performance never did. Take a look at his passing numbers.
310/517 60% 4,051 yards 21 TD 4.1 TD% 17 INT 3.3 INT% 7.8 YPA 84.5 QB Rating.
Andy Dalton had slightly better QB numbers and his team won more than Carolina, so many must be wondering why I chose Newton over Dalton. Newton's rushing ability crushes Dalton's chance at the award. Newton rushed for 706 yards and 14 TDs with a 5.6 YPC. Unreal for a rookie.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller, LB, Denver Broncos
Von Miller is just a pure animal. In his first season as a pro, he started 15 games, missing one with injury, and performed at an All-Pro level. Miller racked up 51 tackles and 11.5 sacks. He also defended 4 passes and forced 3 fumbles. Miller will be a force for years to come and he's already established himself as one of the better players in the NFL.
Comeback Player of the Year: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
I know some may feel that the comeback player of the year should be an established player who was injured and then came back. While Stafford wasn't "established," he certainly showed at ton of potential in his prior two years starting. If you don't believe me, go back to the Cleveland-Detroit game from 2009 and watched the Sound FX clip of Stafford hurting his shoulder. He's on the ground in pain, screaming. He comes off for one play, goes back in the next, throws the game winning TD. The kid has heart and potential. Stafford came back in a huge way this year, let's see his numbers:
421/663 5,038 yards 63.5% 41 TDs 6.2 TD% 16 INT 2.4 INT% 7.6 YPA 97.2 QB Rating.
He's quickly established himself as a top 5-10 QB after being out for the last 2 seasons with an injury. To me that's a bigger comeback than most we've seen.
Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers
I'd love to say McCarthy, but he already had an awesome team from last year. Harbaugh came in on his first season as a head coach and turned the 49ers into a dominant team. No question on this one. Harbaugh deserves it.
Now, for some fun awards:
The NASA Astronaut Award: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
That leap vs Arizona was unreal.
The Ron Jeremy Giant Package Award: James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
No questioning his manhood after that hit he put on Colt McCoy.
The Payton Hillis White Guy Excelling at a Skill Position Award: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
Wes Welker is the man, but Jordy Nelson scoring 15 TDs is unreal.
The Ryan Leaf Meltdown Award: The Entire New York Jets Franchise
Unreal how nuclear that locker room can get.
The Ryan Leaf Overhyped Draft Prospect Award: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
He turns his back to the freaking pass rush!
The Chicago Cubs Unlucky Franchise Award: The Houston Texans
They win their first division title and advance to the playoffs only to lose their starting QB.
The Tim Couch Awful QB Award: Caleb Hanie, QB, Chicago Bears
He was just terrible this year.
The Brett Favre Hype and Slight Delivery Only To Regress Back to Being Mediocre Award: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills
He played so well so early. Losing Fred Jackson couldn't have helped, but he was playing miserable at some points.
The John Elway Overrated Award: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
He's not awful. He's not great. He's a serviceable starter. Every postseason, without fail, he's given the nickname "Matty Ice." He doesn't deserve to get a nickname predicated upon him being "cool" under pressure. A good nickname for him is "Matt."
Plenty of crazy stuff happened this year, and my Packers are 15-1 and comfortably had the #1 seed locked up a couple weeks ago. First time since the 90s the Packers were this good! I'm not here to talk about the Packers, though...well....okay...maybe a little. Today we're going to look at all of the end of the year awards. I'm going to include all of the normal ones PLUS I'm going to make a ton of new ones up.
MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
I'm sure everyone guessed I would pick A-Rod. Let me convince you why I picked him. Let's take a look at his stat line, first normal and then more in depth.
343/502 68.3% 4,643 yards 45 TDs 9.0% TD% 6 INTs 1.2% INT% 9.2 YPA 122.5 QB Rating.
These stats are good enough to win the MVP, but some may argue Brees had a better year. Not really. It's actually not even close. Rodgers sat 9 quarters total during the season when the Packers were ahead. He has just 98 attempts in the 4th quarter, about 4.6 a game. Brees stayed in for the majority of all games. Brees' stats were volume. Let's look at Brees' stat line in depth.
468/657 71.2% 5,476 yards 46 TDs 7.0% TD% 14 INT 2.1% INT% 8.2 YPA 110.6 QB Rating.
On the surface, it looks better than Rodgers' season. If you look closely though, you'll see the mark of volume stats and excessive throwing. First, Brees completes a higher percentage of passes, and 125 more total, yet throws 1 more TD. He would have been below that number substantially had he not stayed in VS Carolina despite them being up by a wide margin. They also had him stay in vs Atlanta and throw another TD pass despite being up by a lot in order to secure the passing yardage record in week 15. Despite earning the record, Brees played almost the entire game the next week.
The biggest mark of a good QB is how efficient they are. Rodgers can score at will. Brees can to, to an extent, but Rodgers is better at it. 9% of Rodgers' passes ended up as a TD while only 7% of Brees' did. A full 2% difference. Brees out gained Rodgers through the air by 833 yards. Rodgers had almost a full yard more per attempt though, 9.2 to 8.3. Rodgers would need 596 attempts to beat Brees' total, a full 61 attempts less than Brees. Rodgers was also markedly safer with the ball tossing just 6 INTs compared to Brees' 14. 2.1% of Brees' throws were intercepted while only 1.2% of Rodgers' were picked off. Rodgers also broke the record for best QB rating ever in a season. Rodgers is the definition of efficient.
If you're not convinced, Rodgers is also a threat on his feet. He out gained Brees on the ground 267 yards to 86 and scored 3 TDs to Brees' 1.
It's pretty obvious who the clearcut winner should be. I won't even get into how superior Brees' running game and offensive line are.
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
As much bashing as I just did, Brees deserves a ton of credit for what he accomplished. He did break a record that's almost 30 years old. What diminishes this accomplishment is that Brady also broke Marino's record and is now second behind Brees. People can clearly see that Brees unnecessarily racked up yardage. Matthew Stafford also racked up over 5,000 yards on the season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Allen, DE, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings don't have much to be happy about. The Donovan McNabb experiment didn't work out (though honestly, nobody though it would). Adrian Peterson blew out his knee and it will be questionable whether or not he is able to be ready for the opener next September. Percy Harvin continues to battle injuries. The secondary is swiss cheese. The offensive line is horrid. Pretty much the only thing the Vikings have going for them is DE Jared Allen. Allen played his heart out all year racking up 66 tackles, 22 sacks, 4 fumbles forced, 4 fumbles recovered, 3 passes defended and 1 INT. Mind you these sacks came on a team that was ALWAYS trailing this year. That to me makes his accomplishment even bigger.
I understand he probably won't win it. Who will win it is Terrell Suggs just because he's Terrell Suggs and he's on a winning team. If you want to hear me bitch about how being on a winning team shouldn't automatically qualify you for an award and being on a losing team shouldn't automatically disqualify you, look back in the archives, I did an angry post about it. Jared Allen was one of the few good defenders in a season where defense was almost absent. 5 teams scored over 500 points.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Surprising the league in his first 2 games, Cam Newton threw for over 800 yards. He quickly quieted doubters, like myself, with his play. While his hand cooled down a bit, his performance never did. Take a look at his passing numbers.
310/517 60% 4,051 yards 21 TD 4.1 TD% 17 INT 3.3 INT% 7.8 YPA 84.5 QB Rating.
Andy Dalton had slightly better QB numbers and his team won more than Carolina, so many must be wondering why I chose Newton over Dalton. Newton's rushing ability crushes Dalton's chance at the award. Newton rushed for 706 yards and 14 TDs with a 5.6 YPC. Unreal for a rookie.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller, LB, Denver Broncos
Von Miller is just a pure animal. In his first season as a pro, he started 15 games, missing one with injury, and performed at an All-Pro level. Miller racked up 51 tackles and 11.5 sacks. He also defended 4 passes and forced 3 fumbles. Miller will be a force for years to come and he's already established himself as one of the better players in the NFL.
Comeback Player of the Year: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
I know some may feel that the comeback player of the year should be an established player who was injured and then came back. While Stafford wasn't "established," he certainly showed at ton of potential in his prior two years starting. If you don't believe me, go back to the Cleveland-Detroit game from 2009 and watched the Sound FX clip of Stafford hurting his shoulder. He's on the ground in pain, screaming. He comes off for one play, goes back in the next, throws the game winning TD. The kid has heart and potential. Stafford came back in a huge way this year, let's see his numbers:
421/663 5,038 yards 63.5% 41 TDs 6.2 TD% 16 INT 2.4 INT% 7.6 YPA 97.2 QB Rating.
He's quickly established himself as a top 5-10 QB after being out for the last 2 seasons with an injury. To me that's a bigger comeback than most we've seen.
Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers
I'd love to say McCarthy, but he already had an awesome team from last year. Harbaugh came in on his first season as a head coach and turned the 49ers into a dominant team. No question on this one. Harbaugh deserves it.
Now, for some fun awards:
The NASA Astronaut Award: Jerome Simpson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
That leap vs Arizona was unreal.
The Ron Jeremy Giant Package Award: James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
No questioning his manhood after that hit he put on Colt McCoy.
The Payton Hillis White Guy Excelling at a Skill Position Award: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
Wes Welker is the man, but Jordy Nelson scoring 15 TDs is unreal.
The Ryan Leaf Meltdown Award: The Entire New York Jets Franchise
Unreal how nuclear that locker room can get.
The Ryan Leaf Overhyped Draft Prospect Award: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
He turns his back to the freaking pass rush!
The Chicago Cubs Unlucky Franchise Award: The Houston Texans
They win their first division title and advance to the playoffs only to lose their starting QB.
The Tim Couch Awful QB Award: Caleb Hanie, QB, Chicago Bears
He was just terrible this year.
The Brett Favre Hype and Slight Delivery Only To Regress Back to Being Mediocre Award: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills
He played so well so early. Losing Fred Jackson couldn't have helped, but he was playing miserable at some points.
The John Elway Overrated Award: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
He's not awful. He's not great. He's a serviceable starter. Every postseason, without fail, he's given the nickname "Matty Ice." He doesn't deserve to get a nickname predicated upon him being "cool" under pressure. A good nickname for him is "Matt."
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Fantasy vs Reality
During many football discussions, I have come across this argument several times.
"He's good, but he's just a good fantasy player."
After struggling to keep my brain from exploding, I say,
"What is the difference? Don't fantasy points come directly from the game?"
Then I get an hour of BS about how you can be some clutch awesome player, but not put up good fantasy numbers.
Here's the deal people. There is no difference between fantasy production and on the field production. If you're a good player you will be both a good fantasy player and a good on the field player. Peyton Manning is literally amazing. Last year, he played AMAZING despite having no supporting cast aside from Reggie Wayne. Because the Colts didn't win, Peyton Manning is automatically at fault to some people. This is when people turn their brains off and refuse to admit he's a top 5 QB. He can't win! He's got a losing playoff record! Peyton Manning can go 50/50 500 Yards and 5 TDs and he would be "just a good fantasy player" to most football fans.
This needs to stop. Football is a sport consisting of offense, defense, and special teams. 3 parts that are not related. 11 guys are on the field at any give time for each unit. QB is one of those 10. While QB is more important, it is not always the QBs fault for a win or loss. There was a game between the Jets and Dolphins when Marino was playing where he threw for 400+ yards and 6 TDs and the Dolphins lost 62-45. Is it really Marino's fault? Is he really just a "fantasy" QB who can't win? Should he have played LB and picked off the opposing QB?
Special teams has a huge effect too. This past season, the Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers (had to get that in there) played the Atlanta Falcons during the regular season. The Packers, trailing by 7, were lead on a 90 yard drive by Aaron Rodgers. The drive was capped off by a 10 yard TD pass to Jordy Nelson on 4th down. The score was tied at 17. There is under a minute left when the Packers kickoff. Falcons return man Eric Weems gets a big return to the 30 and when he is tackled, Packers LB Matt Wilhelm grabs his face mask. 15 yards were tacked on. Matt Ryan completed a couple of easy passes and he kicked a FG to win the game in regulation. Aaron Rodgers did everything right to tie the game, but his special teams failed him. True, Rodgers could have done more during the game to win, but it was a tightly contested matchup.
Just because a QB is on the losing end of a game, doesn't mean he is bad. When the Colts and Patriots play, is the losing QB suddenly bad and "just a fantasy player"? Of course not. So remember this the next time you get into a debate with someone on football. Romo, Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees, etc., are all great QBs. And no. Mark Sanchez is neither clutch nor better than those guys.
"He's good, but he's just a good fantasy player."
After struggling to keep my brain from exploding, I say,
"What is the difference? Don't fantasy points come directly from the game?"
Then I get an hour of BS about how you can be some clutch awesome player, but not put up good fantasy numbers.
Here's the deal people. There is no difference between fantasy production and on the field production. If you're a good player you will be both a good fantasy player and a good on the field player. Peyton Manning is literally amazing. Last year, he played AMAZING despite having no supporting cast aside from Reggie Wayne. Because the Colts didn't win, Peyton Manning is automatically at fault to some people. This is when people turn their brains off and refuse to admit he's a top 5 QB. He can't win! He's got a losing playoff record! Peyton Manning can go 50/50 500 Yards and 5 TDs and he would be "just a good fantasy player" to most football fans.
This needs to stop. Football is a sport consisting of offense, defense, and special teams. 3 parts that are not related. 11 guys are on the field at any give time for each unit. QB is one of those 10. While QB is more important, it is not always the QBs fault for a win or loss. There was a game between the Jets and Dolphins when Marino was playing where he threw for 400+ yards and 6 TDs and the Dolphins lost 62-45. Is it really Marino's fault? Is he really just a "fantasy" QB who can't win? Should he have played LB and picked off the opposing QB?
Special teams has a huge effect too. This past season, the Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers (had to get that in there) played the Atlanta Falcons during the regular season. The Packers, trailing by 7, were lead on a 90 yard drive by Aaron Rodgers. The drive was capped off by a 10 yard TD pass to Jordy Nelson on 4th down. The score was tied at 17. There is under a minute left when the Packers kickoff. Falcons return man Eric Weems gets a big return to the 30 and when he is tackled, Packers LB Matt Wilhelm grabs his face mask. 15 yards were tacked on. Matt Ryan completed a couple of easy passes and he kicked a FG to win the game in regulation. Aaron Rodgers did everything right to tie the game, but his special teams failed him. True, Rodgers could have done more during the game to win, but it was a tightly contested matchup.
Just because a QB is on the losing end of a game, doesn't mean he is bad. When the Colts and Patriots play, is the losing QB suddenly bad and "just a fantasy player"? Of course not. So remember this the next time you get into a debate with someone on football. Romo, Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees, etc., are all great QBs. And no. Mark Sanchez is neither clutch nor better than those guys.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Week 1 Pick 'Em
Well, last post on here the lockout was still going strong! Things have changed and now there is labor peace for ten years!! Kudos to Goodell and Smith for ironing things out and salvaging the entire NFL season as well as 64 of the 65 preseason games. I'm sure all of you are sick and tired of the business BS (even though I can NEVER get tired of it) so let me get back into the groove with some picks! I'll be doing this every week along with some other weekly articles. Enjoy and as always comments are welcome and encouraged!
Thursday September 8, 2011
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers 8:30 PM NBC Lambeau Field
The 2009-2010 Super Bowl Champs travel to Lambeau to square off against the 2010-2011 Super Bowl Champs. The Saints come to town with their brand new shiny running back, Mark Ingram, who they selected in the first round of the NFL Draft this year. The Saints are expecting big things out of Ingram and he will likely contribute to the backfield as well as Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, and Chris Ivory. One big name absent from the Saints backfield is tailback Reggie Bush. Bush signed a free agent contract with the Dolphins this offseason. Drew Brees returns as the saints marquee player and remains one of the elite QBs in the NFL. Questions linger around Marques Colston after offseason surgery and the saints other WRs are questionable at best. Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem can all produce but are inconsistent. Tight End Jimmy Graham looks poised to have a breakout year. The defense, while porous at times, remains a group of playmakers who can change the flow of the game at any time.
The Packers have a big problem. What do you do with all of this talent? The defending champs suffered a slew of injuries last season and players stepped up to make the Super Bowl run. Four key guys who were sent packing were Linebacker Nick Barnett, Left Guard Darryn Colledge, Running Back Brandon Jackson, and Defensive End Cullen Jenkins. Replacing Barnett is Linebacker Desmond Bishop who stormed onto the scene with over 100 tackles last season. Bishop exceeded Barnett's play and got a contract extension. Colledge played fairly well last year, but his sense of entitlement didn't sit well with the Packers' front office. They let him sign a free agent contract with Arizona. Replacing him is TJ Lang who outplayed rookie Derrick Sherrod for the starting spot. Brandon Jackson had his chance to shine last season after starter Ryan Grant went down, but he was not able to perform as a true number one back. The Cleveland Browns signed him to back up stud RB Peyton Hillis. Replacing him is a crowded backfield of Ryan Grant, James Starks, and Rookie 3rd round pick out of Hawaii Alex Green. One will no doubt be the front runner. Cullen Jenkins, who was often injured, is being replaced by 2nd year player Mike Neal, who cannot stay healthy either. Aaron Rodgers returns with Jermichael Finley healthy again as well as rookie Randall Cobb who looks poised to make some noise this season at least in the return game. The defense returns minus Frank Zombo for a while with a broken shoulder blade and Cullen Jenkins. Dom Capers' unit remains mostly intact which is scary.
How the Saints can win:
-Stop Rodgers. That's not an easy task, but it has been done.
-Run the ball down the Packers throat. The defense doesn't have many weak spots, but the run defense is one. OLB Clay Matthews is an excellent pass rusher, but he is a liability against the run. Drew Brees can keep the Packers defense honest.
-Contain Randall Cobb. I know he's a rookie, but you better believe the Packers are going to use their new toy on punt returns and kick returns. Ted Thompson loves his draft picks and it's a compliment to have him use such a high pick on you.
How the Packers can win:
-Protect Rodgers. TJ Lang will be starting at left guard and he needs to hold his own. Bulaga, Sitton, Clifton and Wells all return and should be solid starters once again.
-Spread the ball out. Rodgers tried to force the issue to Finley last season before he got hurt. This didn't always work out. Rodgers need to keep the Saints honest by spreading the ball out.
-Keep the Saints honest by rushing. The Packers need to utilize their stable of backs. This will allow Rodgers to have more open throwing lanes.
PREDICTION: Packers 24 Saints 17
Sunday, September 11th, 2011
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears 1:00 PM FOX Soldier Field
The 14 win Falcons travel to Chicago to square off against the NFC runner-up Chicago Bears in what should be an exciting matchup. The Falcons return the star trio on offense of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White. New on the scene is rookie wideout Julio Jones. It's scary to think that Jones and White will line up together on the same field. The Falcons will be playing on the questionable turf at Soldier Field rather than the indoor artificial turf back home in Georgia, where Matt Ryan seems nearly unstoppable. Young cornerback Brent Grimes returns and will likely quietly remain one of the top CBs in the NFL.
The Chicago Bears were a surprise last year. The Bears were a Caleb Hanie drive away from a tie ball game in the NFC Championship game. Jay Cutler remains the starter, however, and he will start year 2 under Mike Martz's offensive scheme. Matt Forte, despite contract issues, seems like he will play this year and he will likely be motivated by the contract year to play out of his mind. One big name that will be absent from the Bears is Tight End Greg Olsen who was shipped to Carolina. Olsen was underutilized in Martz's offense and was a waste of capspace. The tight end spot is now all for Kellen Davis. The offensive line will hopefully be better for Cutler. It has looked rocky at times in preseason, but there is still time. The defense returns led by Lance Briggs, Julius Peppers, and Brian Urlacher. The one problem for the Bears this year is the new rule that moves kickoffs from the 30 to the 35. A lot of the success of the Bears last season stemmed from the perk of having a great return game. Look for the Bears to lose a game or two because of this.
How the Falcons can win:
-Shut down Jay Cutler. It's not a hard thing to do. When Cutler becomes frustrated, he becomes erratic. When he becomes erratic, that leads to turnovers.
-Contain Matt Forte. Forte remains one of the most dangerous players in the NFL. He is very shifty and is dangerous as both a pass catcher and a rusher. Atlanta will have its hands full trying to contain him.
-Kick the ball away from Hester. On kickoffs, the ball needs to go out of the back of the end zone. On punts, the ball needs to be angled out of bounds. The Bears special teams are a special unit.
How the Bears can win:
-Disrupt the passing lanes for Ryan. Matt Ryan is a good QB, but he's a young QB. He can be fooled by a crafty defense and the Bears have had a perpetually crafty one. Look for the Bears DL to get their hands up on passes and look for the CBs to jump routes.
-Shut down Jones and White. The Bears need to take this tandem seriously. Though Jones is a rookie, his talents are unquestionable and the Falcons gave up A LOT to get him.
-Make Matt Forte ubiquitous. The Bears have to make sure that their best player has the ball in his hands. With the question marks at receiver, Forte is the safest option on offense and the most effective one.
PREDICTION: Bears 24 Falcons 23
Cincinatti @ Cleveland Browns 1:00 PM CBS Cleveland Browns Stadium
The Bengals and the Browns have been basement dwellers in the AFC North recently. For the Bengals, the title of having the most players arrested has slowly slipped away and they are now in the running for the title of having the craziest ownership. Carson Palmer wants to be traded or he will retire. The Bengals are letting him retire. The Bengals need a running back, but they chose to stick with Cedric Benson who is mediocre at best. There isn't ALL bad news, however, for the Bengals. Rookie QB Andy Dalton looked sharp last night as the Bengals steamrolled the Panthers. Rookie WR AJ Green looks every bit the part. With Jermane Gresham at TE and Jerome Simpson poised to have an all right season, the Bengals may surprise some.
The Browns go into this season with optimism. They installed a new west coast system and Colt McCoy looks better than last year. Monterio Hardesty is healthy and the Browns added RB Brandon Jackson from Green Bay as depth for Madden Coverboy Peyton Hillis. The Browns strategy is to limit Hillis' carries and keep him fresh. Joe Thomas returns as one of the best offensive linemen in the league and Alex Mack remains one of the better centers in the league. The Browns do lack depth at WR. Josh Cribbs will never be a true WR and Mohammad Massaquoi has been disappointing. TJ Ward and Joe Haden spearhead a young secondary poised to make noise. This Mike Holmgren run team seems to be pulling itself together.
How the Bengals can win:
-Stop the run. The Browns are expanding their passing game, but the WRs are still young and unproven. The Browns bread and butter is the rushing game. Stop that and you're in business.
-Keep the ball away from Josh Cribbs. Like Chicago, special teams is a HUGE part of the Browns organization. Keep Cribbs quiet and you have a good shot at winning.
-Pressure Colt McCoy. McCoy is a young QB and is still prone to mistakes. Turnovers are key and pressuring Colt will likely lead to a couple.
How the Browns can win:
-Use Colt McCoy creatively. Surprise the Bengals and come out firing with Colt McCoy. They won't be expecting it and I think McCoy can handle it.
-Stop the short passes. QB Andy Dalton is very good for the Bengals, but his one glaring hole is he does not have a very good deep ball. Contain the Bengals short and dare Dalton to go long.
-Hillis, Hillis, Hillis. When all else goes wrong, use your steamroller running back.
PREDICTION: Browns 20 Bengals 13
Buffalo @ Kansas City 1:00 PM CBS Arrowhead Stadium
The fiesty Buffalo Bills travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in this inter-division matchup. Buffalo sports surprise wideout Stevie Johnson and surprising QB Ryan Fitzpatrick with an underrated aerial attack. Fred Jackson refuses to relent his starting RB role to 2nd year back out of Clemson C.J. Spiller. Buffalo revamped its defense by adding Shawne Merriman last year as well as Linebacker Nick Barnett and rookie defensive tackle Marcel Dareus.
Kansas City plans to use running back Jamaal Charles more this year and he's poised to take control of the running game. Veteran Thomas Jones will likely see a smaller role as he enters the twilight of his career. The Chiefs added Johnathan Baldwin in the 1st round of the draft, but all indications are that he's not playing very well. Still, the Chiefs have veteran wideout Dwayne Bowe as well as free agent acquisition Steve Breaston who arrived from Arizona. Kansas City is excited about rookie 3rd round pick Justin Houston.
How the Bills can win:
-Fitz to Johnson. The Bills need to utilize Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's a fierce competitor and he's willing to take risks. Johnson is poised to have another big year.
-Play good run defense. Nick Barnett and Marcel Dareus need to step up in their first game as Bills and stop Jamaal Charles.
-Score early. Arrowhead is a very hostile place for a visiting team to play. Score quickly and quiet the crowd.
How the Chiefs can win:
-A steady dose of Charles. He's the best player on the team, use him.
-Get Tony Moeaki involved. The young tight end is very talented and defenses still aren't giving him enough attention.
-Give Cassel safe, easy completions. Cassel is a great system QB, keep him in the system and he'll play well.
PREDICTION: Kansas City 31 Buffalo 17
Philadelphia Eagles @ St. Louis Rams 1:00 PM FOX Edward Jones Dome
The Dream Team travels to St. Louis for this matchup. Michael Vick returns to spearhead this optimistic season for Eagles fans. The offense remains the same with Vick, Jackson, Maclin, Celek, and Shady McCoy as well as former Giants wideout Steve Smith. Defensively, the Eagles went overboard. Nnamdi Asomougah comes over from Oakland in a blockbuster free agent signing. He and Asante Samuel, and newcomer Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will man the league's top CB trio. The defensive line got a boost with free agents Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin. Rookie linebacker Casey Matthews looks to contribute immediately.
The Rams have stayed relatively quiet in the offseason. Josh McDaniels has joined the coaching staff and will likely push 2nd year QB Sam Bradford to have a fantastic Sophomore campaign. The rams added Mike Simms Walker from Jacksonville and hopefully he revives his career with the Rams and a more potent passing offense. Steven Jackson returns and remains quietly one of the best runners in the league. Cadillac Williams comes over from Tampa to back Jackson up.
How the Eagles can win:
-Shut down Bradford. McDaniels will likely try to air the ball out. With their awesome CBs, the Eagles should be able to shut him down no problem.
-Stop Jackson. That may be harder to do. If the Dream Team has one weakness, it's run defense.
-Protect Vick. Vick has taken some SHOTS in preseason. Keep him upright and give him time. He's a dangerous player with time.
How the Rams can win:
-Contain Vick. Nearly impossible.
-Exploit rushing defense and control the ball. The Eagles one weakness is rush defense. Run the ball down their throats and control the clock. Keep the ball out of Vick's hands.
-Give Bradford time. The Eagles will bring the pressure. Keep Bradford upright.
PREDICTION Eagles 31 Rams 13
Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 PM FOX Raymond James Stadium
The Lions are optimistic this season. 3rd year pro out of Georgia Matthew Stafford is healthy after missing significant time last year. A fierce competitor and a talented passer, Stafford possesses the tools to be a top QB in the NFL. At RB, the Lions boast the shifty Javid Best. The Lions took Mikel Leshoure to be the between the tackles guy, but he suffered an achilles injury that may threaten his career. Megatron continues to be an absolute monster. The Lions defensive line will be absolutely fantastic. Returning to the lineup are Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams, and Ndomukong Suh. Coming into the fold is rookie defensive tackle Nick Fairley who will contribute immediately.
The Buccaneers were surprising last year, but I have a gut feeling they won't be as good. Josh Freeman had a great year, but his numbers will likely regress. He had a ton of crazy throws that should have been intercepted that weren't. LeGarrett Blount will likely play well but I don't think he will exceed expectations. Mike Williams will continue to be a stud WR in his second year. The Buccaneers were more of a product of an easy schedule. The only win against a team with a winning record was against the Saints who sat their starters the last week of the season. I think the Bucs will be humbled.
How the Lions can win:
-Pressure, Pressure, Pressue. Use your big guys up front.
-Stafford to Megatron. They need to get the ball to their best WR. Common sense.
-Keep Mike Williams contained. The Lions shaky secondary needs to step up.
How the Bucs can win:
-Keep Freeman under control. The Lions will be coming and he needs to stay calm and throw clean passes.
-Pressure Stafford. Stafford is talented, but fragile. Scare him.
-Get Blount going. If you can keep the line honest, that will keep Freeman calm.
PREDICTION: Lions 24 Bucs 20
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00 PM CBS EverBank Field
The Titans come to Jacksonville with some new faces and some big question marks. Veteran QB Kerry Collins retired (and has since signed on with the Colts) which left a big hole at QB for the Titans. The Titans, with new head coach Mike Munchak, took this issue seriously and got former Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck as well as Rookie QB Jake Locker. Star RB Chris Johnson continues his holdout and it has been said he requested a trade. WR Kenny Britt awaits a possible suspension for offseason crimes. The Titans need stability on offense and they just do not have it. The Titans need to figure out what's going on or it could be a LONG season.
The Jaguars have their own problems to deal with. David Garrard has been mediocre at best at quarterback and rookie Blaine Gabbert is pushing him to start. Stud rusher Maurice Jones-Drew is coming off of another injury and there are question marks surrounding him. Jones-Drew is a tough guy and will do everything in his power to play his best, but sometimes these things can't be fixed. Beyond TE Marcedes Lewis there isn't much of a threat receiving for the Jags. The defense doesn't really have anyone to talk about.
How the Titans can win:
-Get Chris Johnson under contract. He's the best guy on your team. Pay him so you guys can salvage your season.
-Get Hasselbeck involved early. Surprise the Jaguars.
-Get pressure on Garrard quickly. Rattle him and force turnovers.
How the Jaguars can win:
-Hope MJD can play up to his level. The Jags need him on offense.
-Bench Garrard. Gabbert is better and Garrard has had more than his fair chance to win.
-Get in Hasselbeck's face. It's his first game in Tennessee. Sure, he's a great pro, but he's still learning a new offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens 1:00 PM CBS M&T Financial Field
The Super Bowl Chumps travel to Baltimore to face the division rival Ravens. Roethlisberger returns at QB and looks poised to have another good year as well as the whole offense. The Steelers added Jericho Cotchery at WR and he's likely to get a fair share of passes from Ben. 1st round pick Cameron Heyward looks like a prototypical Steeler guy and he will likely get playing time early. Joining him on defense is reigning defensive MVP Troy Polamalu, who will be fully healthy this season after missing time last year. The Steelers look poised to have another great year.
The Ravens said goodbye to a couple of faces that have become faces of the franchise. Departing this offseason were TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, and RB Willis McGahee. TE Dennis Pitta looks like he's ready to step up and play tight end. To make up for the loss of McGahee, the Ravens signed Ricky Williams, the former Saints and Dolphins back. He will back up star RB Ray Rice. Their defense returns in full force and it looks just as menacing as ever. Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs...this defense is poised to kick some ass.
How the Steelers can win:
-Call bootlegs for Ben. Roethlisberger is a much better QB when he's in space and he's playing in school yard type situations. Get him outside of the pocket and it will get the Ravens on edge.
-A steady dose of Mendenhall. It's always key to control a game vs a great defense.
-Stop Rice. That's not easy, but the Steelers had the best defense in the NFL last year, and there's no reason why that would change this year.
How the Ravens can win:
-Contain Ben. Green Bay used Clay Matthews as a QB spy in Super Bowl XLV. This forced ben to throw from the pocket where he looked uncomfortable at times. The Ravens need to do this.
-Get Rice involved. He's the most dynamic weapon on the field for the Ravens.
-Utilize Dennis Pitta. The young TE will take the league by surprise this year. Start him out early.
PREDICTION: Steelers 23 Ravens 21
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans 1:00 PM CBS Reliant Field
The Colts travel to Houston to face their rivals who have been playing the Colts very tough lately. There is a very strong possibility that QB Peyton Manning will miss this game. If he can't go, the Colt's contingency plan is vet QB Kerry Collins. There is a large dropoff in play, but it's an even bigger drop off to Curtis Painter. Joseph Addai returns as the starter, but rookie Delone Carter is pushing for at least 3rd down/goaline carries. Austin Collie and Dallas Clark return to the team to open up the passing game for the Colts. On defense, oft-injured safety Bob Sanders departed and the Colts signed free agent Tommie Harris at DT. The defensive line remains the strongpoint.
Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson return as one of the most dangerous trios in the NFL. Their offense remains essentially the same with Owen Daniels returning and Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones are still there. The biggest changes to the Texans come on defense. Wade Phillips came over from Dallas and the Texans switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Star defensive end Mario Williams is now an outside linebacker and he looks lost. The advantage of his size/speed combination is partially nullified by the fact that he's forced to start outside standing up. Rookie Brooks Reed looks like he's the real deal and he's becoming a good pass rusher. The shaky pass defense is shored up with free agent CB Jonathan Joseph coming over from Cincinatti
How the Colts can win:
-Get Peyton Manning healthy. Peyton Manning > Kerry Collins
-Stop Foster. Tall order. Their defensive line is good, but it's more pass rushers than run stoppers.
-Use Dallas Clark. Manning's play dropped off after Clark's departure. He's a great TE and he can stretch the field.
How the Texans can win:
-Shut down Manning if he can play. Obvious fact. Nothing surprising there.
-A steady dose of Foster. If you can't shut down Manning, keep the ball out of his hands.
-Get Mario Williams up to speed. The Texans need to get him up to speed or teams will run the ball right at him.
PREDICTION Texans 31 Colts 27
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins 4:00 PM FOX FedEx Field
The New York Giants and Washington Redskins meet to play a game on a day that overshadows the game of football. This game will be played on the 10th anniversary of September 11th and these two teams were the teams most closely effected by the attacks. Both teams will be playing with heavy hearts. The Giants gutted their offensive line this offseason and they will likely have some trouble there. Free agent Center David Bass is a mauler and he seems like he's going to be the starter there for a long time, but a lot of their other linemen are going to struggle. The Giants sent TE Kevin Boss packing to Oakland and they are left with a gaping hole. Division rival Philadelphia Eagles scooped up wideout Steve Smith. The Giants cupboards are bare. To make things worse, Rookie CB Prince Amukamara is out for 2 months with an injury and the Giants lost 3 other defensive backs. On the bright side, Brandon Jacobs looks like the Brandon Jacobs of old.
The Redskins are pretty bad as well. One-year experiment Donovan McNabb was shipped to Minnesota, so there is a QB battle between Rex Grossman and John Beck. Clinton Portis appears to be done, so the Redskins drafted Roy Helu who seems to be poised to get some playing time and they signed former Cardinal Tim Hightower who has been the one glimmer of hope for this team during the preseason. Santana Moss and Chris Cooley return, but are both another year older. Brian Orakpo continues to be the best defensive player on the field and DeAngello Hall is making plays in the preseason.
How the Giants can win:
-Keep the ball out of Manning's hand. He thinks he's elite, but I think if you're coming off a 20+ INT season, you can't say that.
-Pressure Grossman/Beck. The Giants have the league's best defensive line (Detroit fans may disagree, but the Giants are just freakishly good on the DL) and either one of those guys will be pressured easily.
-Get Jacobs the ball in space. It always seems like if you give Jacobs the ball to run between the tackles, he runs directly into the pile. If Jacobs gets a head of steam, he's VERY dangerous.
How the Redskins can win:
-Confuse Manning. DeAngello Hall is salivating to grab some erratic passes.
-Keep it simple for Grossman/Beck. They need to vanilla the offense so that the defensive line is nullified.
-Take advantage of the Giants depleted secondary. They will be shorthanded.
PREDICTION: Giants 24 Redskins 10
Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers 4:00 PM FOX Qualcomm Stadium
The Vikings travel to take on Philip Rivers and the Chargers. The Vikings are without Brett Favre this year, replacing him is Donavan McNabb who most people aren't optimistic about. The Vikes also lost WR Sidney Rice to Seattle. Tackle Bryant McKinnie was let go and signed on with the Ravens. This Minnesota Vikings offensive line is depleted. Expect to see a significant drop off in play. Adrian Peterson will also likely take a hit because of this. The defense was not upgraded significantly and will likely struggle. Christian Ponder will backup McNabb, but Ponder isn't looking great.
On the other side of the field comes Philip Rivers, the Chargers' top 5 QB. All reports indicate that his favorite target, Tight End Antonio Gates, is ready to go for the season. Last year, Rivers performed exceptionally well without Gates for part of the year as well as WR Vincent Jackson. With these players returning as well as RB Ryan Matthews, the offense is set to have another top tier season. Bob Sanders was added to shore up the defense, which was ranked #1 in yards in 2010, and will provide help if he can stay healthy. There is a lot of buzz going around about rookie defensive tackle Corey Liguet. Liguet boasts an insanely low pad level and a quick burst off the ball. He should make an immediate impact.
How the Vikings can win:
-Great offensive line play. The Vikings have questions at the offensive line. They need to come out firing and maul the Chargers' d-line.
-Steady dose of AP. The best back in the league needs the ball in his hand.
-Keep McNabb's role simple. Create an easy offense for McNabb to run. He's a smart QB, but he's coming off a bad year and he needs to build confidence again.
How the Chargers can win:
-Shut down AP. The Chargers need to stop AP. If they can handle that, the Vikings should be an easy W.
-Contain Harvin on returns. Percy Harvin remains a dangerous return man.
-Put the game in the hands of Phil Rivers. He's one of the top QBs in the league and he's going to lead you to victory.
PREDICTION: Chargers 38 Vikings 13
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers 4:00 PM FOX Candlestick Park
The Seahawks traven to the Bay Area for this NFC West showdown. Coach Pete Carroll, in his second year, got rid of veteran Matt Hasselbeck and instead is holding a competition for ex-Viking Tavares Jackson and ex-Charger Charlie Whitehurst. It seems like Whitehurst is the front runner. To protect his young QBs, Carroll has recruited ex-Raiders head coach Tom Cable to coordinate his offensive line. With him, Cable brought TE Zach Miller and OG Robert Gallery. This will surely help on the offensive line. Adding even more to the line is rookie OL James Carpenter. Giving the new QBs another target was a top priority and the Seahawks landed Sidney Rice from Minnesota.
The 49ers still cannot cut ties with 2005 #1 overall pick Alex Smith. In the draft this year, the 49ers drafted QB Colin Kaepernick. He will likely put some pressure on Smith for the job, but the job is pretty much Smith's. Vernon Davis returns at TE, diva WR Michael Crabtree misses another offseason but will play come week 1, and RB Frank Gore is unhappy with his contract and is asking for a trade or a new deal. The 49ers are in trouble. Center David Bass left for New York and leaves a hole, though Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, and Mike Iupati still provide a solid frame to work with. On defense, CB Nate Clements departed and S Taylor Mays was traded. Replacing them are CBs Carlos Rodgers and Karl Paymah, and safety Madeiu Williams. Patrick Willis returns and remains one of the best LBs in football.
How the Seahawks can win:
-Have a big game out of Marshawn Lynch. The QB play isn't where it needs to be.
-Get Zach Miller involved. It's always good to have a good outlet guy. The Seahawks have 2 good outlet guys in Miller and TE John Carlson.
-Stop Gore...if he plays.
How the 49ers can win:
-Pay Gore. That's all.
-Crabtree and Ginn. Both guys need to step it up to have a shot against Seattle.
-Stop Seattle's rushing game. It's apparent that Carroll favors the rush game. Make him uncomfortable.
PREDICTION: Seattle 17 San Francisco 10
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals 4:00 PM FOX University of Phoenix Stadium
The Panthers travel down to the desert to take on the Cardinals. Rookie Cam Newton may make his first start, though it's up in the air. 2nd year QB out of Notre Dame, Jimmy Clausen, has looked okay in his preseason action. The Panthers added TE Greg Olsen from Chicago and TE Jeremy Shockey from New Orleans. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are back as one of the better tandems in the NFL. Wideout Brandon LaFell is turning heads in the preseason and it seems that he may contribute. Steve Smith remains a threat despite his age. On the defensive side of things, Jon Beason remains a top LB.
The big news out of Arizona this year was their trade for QB Kevin Kolb from the Eagles. They lost CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but gained rookie Patrick Peterson who was dubbed a "can't miss" prospect. They expect big things out of him. They also expected big things out of rookie RB Ryan Williams, but Williams recently suffered a season ending injury. This is an even bigger blow because the Cardinals got rid of one of their reserve backs, Tim Hightower. Beanie Wells will have his shot at the starting job. Larry Fitzgerald remains the focal point of the offense. Todd Heap is a nice addition at TE for the Cards.
How the Panthers can win:
-Start Jimmy Clausen. It may be tempting to start Cam Newton, but he has been wildly inaccurate thus far. He is a talented rusher, but he looks lost in the pocket and his preseason completion percentage is around 40% right now. That won't cut it.
-Return to the power running game. Use Stewart and Williams, you have them.
-Get LaFell involved. He is the most explosive player on your team. Use him for returns and as a receiver.
How the Cardinals can win:
-Get the ball to Larry. Larry Fitzgerald makes the Cardinals better.
-Beanie Wells needs to have a big game. The Cardinals cannot rely soley on the pass game. Even if it beats the Panthers, they need to establish a rushing presence.
-Pressure young QBs. Regardless of who starts, the Cards need to pressure them.
PREDICTION: Cardinals 20 Panthers 6
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets 8:20 PM NBC Metlife Stadium
Rob Ryan tries to beat Rex Ryan in this week 1 matchup. The Cowboys come in optimistic after last year's disappointing campaign. Tono Romo and Dez Bryant return and make this unit a lot more dangerous than people will think. Tyron Smith comes in to help out the offensive line that had problems last year. Jason Witten is probably the most consistent player in the league. Expect another 60+ catch and 1,000+ yard season from him. The Cowboys finally cut ties with Marion Barber. The starting job is Felix Jones' right now, but rookie DeMarco Murray may overtake him. The Cowboys' glaring hole continues to be their secondary. It's swiss cheese. Harr Harr...
The Jets are essentially the same team as last year. They got rid of Braylon Edwards and they signed Plaxico Burress. Both wear the same number, the only difference is that Edwards drops a bunch of balls and it seems Burress can't stay healthy. The Jets only major departures were Jericho Cotchery and Shaun Ellis, but they landed former Ravens WR Derrick Mason. The Jets defense remains intact and they added Temple defensive lineman Mohammad Wilkerson, he will likely contribute quickly.
How the Cowboys can win:
-Throw the ball to Witten. It seems that every critical down the Cowboys have, Witten is wide open. Why not use him more? He's awesome.
-Throw the ball to Dez Bryant. Revis will likely be on Austin, but I think Bryant will be able to burn Cromartie.
-Limit Jones' carries, but keep the Jets defense honest at the same time.
How the Jets can win:
-Pressure Romo. The Cowboys have plenty of offensive targets. The Jets have a great secondary, but it's asking a lot out of them to cover Witten, Bryant, and Austin. Pressure is the safest option.
-Exploit Dallas' secondary. It's weak. Holmes and Burress should get some chances.
-Hope that there isn't inclement weather. Sanchez plays poorly the worse the weather is.
PREDICTION: Jets 27 Cowboys 24
Monday, September 12, 2011
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins 7:00 PM ESPN Sunlife Stadium
The Patriots ended their season the same way the Dolphins did last year. At home watching the Super Bowl. The difference is the Patriots seemed to be the class of the league while the Dolphins were chum (haha nautical references). The Patriots responded this offseason by adding a ton of free agent talent. Joining the Patriots squad are ex-Bengal Chad Ochocinco, ex-Redskin and Titan Albert Hanseworth, and ex-Jet Shaun Ellis. Joining Logan Mankins on the offensive line is rookie Nate Solder. Jerrod Mayo returns as the team's best defender.
The Dolphins flirted with trading for QB Kyle Orton from the Broncos, but the Broncos didn't go through with it. Chad Henne returns as the team's starter. Gone is the tandem fans have grown to love in Miami of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, now the Phins have Reggie Bush from New Orleans and Daniel Thomas, a rookie. Jake Long remains one of the league's top offensive linemen. On defense, Vonte Davis and Karlos Dansby lead the marginal at best unit.
How the Patriots can win:
-Shut down Henne. Check.
-Stop the run. Check.
-Show up to the stadium. Check
How the Dolphins can win:
-Shut down Brady. Not happening.
-Shut down Ochocino, Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Woodhead, etc. Not happening.
-Luck. Maybe?
PREDICTION: Patriots 41 Dolphins 10
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos 10:15 PM ESPN Invesco Field
The Raiders travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in this underwhelming AFC West matchup. The Raiders are going through an overhaul. New head coach Hue Jackson took the strategy of stocking offensive line depth in the draft and is building the team from the ground up. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush return to bring an insanely good rushing game to the table. Kevin Boss came onboard from the Giants and adds depth at tight end after Zach Miller departed for Seattle. On defense, the biggest loss was star CB Nnamdi Asomugha, which will hurt the defense greatly. Terrelle Pryor was taken with the Raiders' 3rd round pick in the Supplemental Draft and may contribute after serving his 5 game suspension.
The Broncos come in as one big mess. Tim Tebow was supposed to start, now he's the #4 QB. Nobody really knows what is going on with RB Knowshon Moreno. Brandon Lloyd and Von Miller are about the only positives you can come up with with this team. Maybe Kyle Orton as well.
How the Raiders can win:
-McFadden. All day.
-Shut down Lloyd. Tall order without Nnamdi.
-Limit Jason Campbell's touches. He's an all right QB, but he's not always careful.
How the Broncos can win:
-Have faith in Orton. He can play and the Raiders took a hit in their secondary.
-Contain McFadden. They need to keep him in check to have a shot.
-Establish some sort of a run game with Moreno.
PREDICTION: Raiders 23 Broncos 14
Thursday September 8, 2011
New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers 8:30 PM NBC Lambeau Field
The 2009-2010 Super Bowl Champs travel to Lambeau to square off against the 2010-2011 Super Bowl Champs. The Saints come to town with their brand new shiny running back, Mark Ingram, who they selected in the first round of the NFL Draft this year. The Saints are expecting big things out of Ingram and he will likely contribute to the backfield as well as Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, and Chris Ivory. One big name absent from the Saints backfield is tailback Reggie Bush. Bush signed a free agent contract with the Dolphins this offseason. Drew Brees returns as the saints marquee player and remains one of the elite QBs in the NFL. Questions linger around Marques Colston after offseason surgery and the saints other WRs are questionable at best. Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, and Robert Meachem can all produce but are inconsistent. Tight End Jimmy Graham looks poised to have a breakout year. The defense, while porous at times, remains a group of playmakers who can change the flow of the game at any time.
The Packers have a big problem. What do you do with all of this talent? The defending champs suffered a slew of injuries last season and players stepped up to make the Super Bowl run. Four key guys who were sent packing were Linebacker Nick Barnett, Left Guard Darryn Colledge, Running Back Brandon Jackson, and Defensive End Cullen Jenkins. Replacing Barnett is Linebacker Desmond Bishop who stormed onto the scene with over 100 tackles last season. Bishop exceeded Barnett's play and got a contract extension. Colledge played fairly well last year, but his sense of entitlement didn't sit well with the Packers' front office. They let him sign a free agent contract with Arizona. Replacing him is TJ Lang who outplayed rookie Derrick Sherrod for the starting spot. Brandon Jackson had his chance to shine last season after starter Ryan Grant went down, but he was not able to perform as a true number one back. The Cleveland Browns signed him to back up stud RB Peyton Hillis. Replacing him is a crowded backfield of Ryan Grant, James Starks, and Rookie 3rd round pick out of Hawaii Alex Green. One will no doubt be the front runner. Cullen Jenkins, who was often injured, is being replaced by 2nd year player Mike Neal, who cannot stay healthy either. Aaron Rodgers returns with Jermichael Finley healthy again as well as rookie Randall Cobb who looks poised to make some noise this season at least in the return game. The defense returns minus Frank Zombo for a while with a broken shoulder blade and Cullen Jenkins. Dom Capers' unit remains mostly intact which is scary.
How the Saints can win:
-Stop Rodgers. That's not an easy task, but it has been done.
-Run the ball down the Packers throat. The defense doesn't have many weak spots, but the run defense is one. OLB Clay Matthews is an excellent pass rusher, but he is a liability against the run. Drew Brees can keep the Packers defense honest.
-Contain Randall Cobb. I know he's a rookie, but you better believe the Packers are going to use their new toy on punt returns and kick returns. Ted Thompson loves his draft picks and it's a compliment to have him use such a high pick on you.
How the Packers can win:
-Protect Rodgers. TJ Lang will be starting at left guard and he needs to hold his own. Bulaga, Sitton, Clifton and Wells all return and should be solid starters once again.
-Spread the ball out. Rodgers tried to force the issue to Finley last season before he got hurt. This didn't always work out. Rodgers need to keep the Saints honest by spreading the ball out.
-Keep the Saints honest by rushing. The Packers need to utilize their stable of backs. This will allow Rodgers to have more open throwing lanes.
PREDICTION: Packers 24 Saints 17
Sunday, September 11th, 2011
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears 1:00 PM FOX Soldier Field
The 14 win Falcons travel to Chicago to square off against the NFC runner-up Chicago Bears in what should be an exciting matchup. The Falcons return the star trio on offense of Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White. New on the scene is rookie wideout Julio Jones. It's scary to think that Jones and White will line up together on the same field. The Falcons will be playing on the questionable turf at Soldier Field rather than the indoor artificial turf back home in Georgia, where Matt Ryan seems nearly unstoppable. Young cornerback Brent Grimes returns and will likely quietly remain one of the top CBs in the NFL.
The Chicago Bears were a surprise last year. The Bears were a Caleb Hanie drive away from a tie ball game in the NFC Championship game. Jay Cutler remains the starter, however, and he will start year 2 under Mike Martz's offensive scheme. Matt Forte, despite contract issues, seems like he will play this year and he will likely be motivated by the contract year to play out of his mind. One big name that will be absent from the Bears is Tight End Greg Olsen who was shipped to Carolina. Olsen was underutilized in Martz's offense and was a waste of capspace. The tight end spot is now all for Kellen Davis. The offensive line will hopefully be better for Cutler. It has looked rocky at times in preseason, but there is still time. The defense returns led by Lance Briggs, Julius Peppers, and Brian Urlacher. The one problem for the Bears this year is the new rule that moves kickoffs from the 30 to the 35. A lot of the success of the Bears last season stemmed from the perk of having a great return game. Look for the Bears to lose a game or two because of this.
How the Falcons can win:
-Shut down Jay Cutler. It's not a hard thing to do. When Cutler becomes frustrated, he becomes erratic. When he becomes erratic, that leads to turnovers.
-Contain Matt Forte. Forte remains one of the most dangerous players in the NFL. He is very shifty and is dangerous as both a pass catcher and a rusher. Atlanta will have its hands full trying to contain him.
-Kick the ball away from Hester. On kickoffs, the ball needs to go out of the back of the end zone. On punts, the ball needs to be angled out of bounds. The Bears special teams are a special unit.
How the Bears can win:
-Disrupt the passing lanes for Ryan. Matt Ryan is a good QB, but he's a young QB. He can be fooled by a crafty defense and the Bears have had a perpetually crafty one. Look for the Bears DL to get their hands up on passes and look for the CBs to jump routes.
-Shut down Jones and White. The Bears need to take this tandem seriously. Though Jones is a rookie, his talents are unquestionable and the Falcons gave up A LOT to get him.
-Make Matt Forte ubiquitous. The Bears have to make sure that their best player has the ball in his hands. With the question marks at receiver, Forte is the safest option on offense and the most effective one.
PREDICTION: Bears 24 Falcons 23
Cincinatti @ Cleveland Browns 1:00 PM CBS Cleveland Browns Stadium
The Bengals and the Browns have been basement dwellers in the AFC North recently. For the Bengals, the title of having the most players arrested has slowly slipped away and they are now in the running for the title of having the craziest ownership. Carson Palmer wants to be traded or he will retire. The Bengals are letting him retire. The Bengals need a running back, but they chose to stick with Cedric Benson who is mediocre at best. There isn't ALL bad news, however, for the Bengals. Rookie QB Andy Dalton looked sharp last night as the Bengals steamrolled the Panthers. Rookie WR AJ Green looks every bit the part. With Jermane Gresham at TE and Jerome Simpson poised to have an all right season, the Bengals may surprise some.
The Browns go into this season with optimism. They installed a new west coast system and Colt McCoy looks better than last year. Monterio Hardesty is healthy and the Browns added RB Brandon Jackson from Green Bay as depth for Madden Coverboy Peyton Hillis. The Browns strategy is to limit Hillis' carries and keep him fresh. Joe Thomas returns as one of the best offensive linemen in the league and Alex Mack remains one of the better centers in the league. The Browns do lack depth at WR. Josh Cribbs will never be a true WR and Mohammad Massaquoi has been disappointing. TJ Ward and Joe Haden spearhead a young secondary poised to make noise. This Mike Holmgren run team seems to be pulling itself together.
How the Bengals can win:
-Stop the run. The Browns are expanding their passing game, but the WRs are still young and unproven. The Browns bread and butter is the rushing game. Stop that and you're in business.
-Keep the ball away from Josh Cribbs. Like Chicago, special teams is a HUGE part of the Browns organization. Keep Cribbs quiet and you have a good shot at winning.
-Pressure Colt McCoy. McCoy is a young QB and is still prone to mistakes. Turnovers are key and pressuring Colt will likely lead to a couple.
How the Browns can win:
-Use Colt McCoy creatively. Surprise the Bengals and come out firing with Colt McCoy. They won't be expecting it and I think McCoy can handle it.
-Stop the short passes. QB Andy Dalton is very good for the Bengals, but his one glaring hole is he does not have a very good deep ball. Contain the Bengals short and dare Dalton to go long.
-Hillis, Hillis, Hillis. When all else goes wrong, use your steamroller running back.
PREDICTION: Browns 20 Bengals 13
Buffalo @ Kansas City 1:00 PM CBS Arrowhead Stadium
The fiesty Buffalo Bills travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in this inter-division matchup. Buffalo sports surprise wideout Stevie Johnson and surprising QB Ryan Fitzpatrick with an underrated aerial attack. Fred Jackson refuses to relent his starting RB role to 2nd year back out of Clemson C.J. Spiller. Buffalo revamped its defense by adding Shawne Merriman last year as well as Linebacker Nick Barnett and rookie defensive tackle Marcel Dareus.
Kansas City plans to use running back Jamaal Charles more this year and he's poised to take control of the running game. Veteran Thomas Jones will likely see a smaller role as he enters the twilight of his career. The Chiefs added Johnathan Baldwin in the 1st round of the draft, but all indications are that he's not playing very well. Still, the Chiefs have veteran wideout Dwayne Bowe as well as free agent acquisition Steve Breaston who arrived from Arizona. Kansas City is excited about rookie 3rd round pick Justin Houston.
How the Bills can win:
-Fitz to Johnson. The Bills need to utilize Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's a fierce competitor and he's willing to take risks. Johnson is poised to have another big year.
-Play good run defense. Nick Barnett and Marcel Dareus need to step up in their first game as Bills and stop Jamaal Charles.
-Score early. Arrowhead is a very hostile place for a visiting team to play. Score quickly and quiet the crowd.
How the Chiefs can win:
-A steady dose of Charles. He's the best player on the team, use him.
-Get Tony Moeaki involved. The young tight end is very talented and defenses still aren't giving him enough attention.
-Give Cassel safe, easy completions. Cassel is a great system QB, keep him in the system and he'll play well.
PREDICTION: Kansas City 31 Buffalo 17
Philadelphia Eagles @ St. Louis Rams 1:00 PM FOX Edward Jones Dome
The Dream Team travels to St. Louis for this matchup. Michael Vick returns to spearhead this optimistic season for Eagles fans. The offense remains the same with Vick, Jackson, Maclin, Celek, and Shady McCoy as well as former Giants wideout Steve Smith. Defensively, the Eagles went overboard. Nnamdi Asomougah comes over from Oakland in a blockbuster free agent signing. He and Asante Samuel, and newcomer Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will man the league's top CB trio. The defensive line got a boost with free agents Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin. Rookie linebacker Casey Matthews looks to contribute immediately.
The Rams have stayed relatively quiet in the offseason. Josh McDaniels has joined the coaching staff and will likely push 2nd year QB Sam Bradford to have a fantastic Sophomore campaign. The rams added Mike Simms Walker from Jacksonville and hopefully he revives his career with the Rams and a more potent passing offense. Steven Jackson returns and remains quietly one of the best runners in the league. Cadillac Williams comes over from Tampa to back Jackson up.
How the Eagles can win:
-Shut down Bradford. McDaniels will likely try to air the ball out. With their awesome CBs, the Eagles should be able to shut him down no problem.
-Stop Jackson. That may be harder to do. If the Dream Team has one weakness, it's run defense.
-Protect Vick. Vick has taken some SHOTS in preseason. Keep him upright and give him time. He's a dangerous player with time.
How the Rams can win:
-Contain Vick. Nearly impossible.
-Exploit rushing defense and control the ball. The Eagles one weakness is rush defense. Run the ball down their throats and control the clock. Keep the ball out of Vick's hands.
-Give Bradford time. The Eagles will bring the pressure. Keep Bradford upright.
PREDICTION Eagles 31 Rams 13
Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 PM FOX Raymond James Stadium
The Lions are optimistic this season. 3rd year pro out of Georgia Matthew Stafford is healthy after missing significant time last year. A fierce competitor and a talented passer, Stafford possesses the tools to be a top QB in the NFL. At RB, the Lions boast the shifty Javid Best. The Lions took Mikel Leshoure to be the between the tackles guy, but he suffered an achilles injury that may threaten his career. Megatron continues to be an absolute monster. The Lions defensive line will be absolutely fantastic. Returning to the lineup are Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams, and Ndomukong Suh. Coming into the fold is rookie defensive tackle Nick Fairley who will contribute immediately.
The Buccaneers were surprising last year, but I have a gut feeling they won't be as good. Josh Freeman had a great year, but his numbers will likely regress. He had a ton of crazy throws that should have been intercepted that weren't. LeGarrett Blount will likely play well but I don't think he will exceed expectations. Mike Williams will continue to be a stud WR in his second year. The Buccaneers were more of a product of an easy schedule. The only win against a team with a winning record was against the Saints who sat their starters the last week of the season. I think the Bucs will be humbled.
How the Lions can win:
-Pressure, Pressure, Pressue. Use your big guys up front.
-Stafford to Megatron. They need to get the ball to their best WR. Common sense.
-Keep Mike Williams contained. The Lions shaky secondary needs to step up.
How the Bucs can win:
-Keep Freeman under control. The Lions will be coming and he needs to stay calm and throw clean passes.
-Pressure Stafford. Stafford is talented, but fragile. Scare him.
-Get Blount going. If you can keep the line honest, that will keep Freeman calm.
PREDICTION: Lions 24 Bucs 20
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00 PM CBS EverBank Field
The Titans come to Jacksonville with some new faces and some big question marks. Veteran QB Kerry Collins retired (and has since signed on with the Colts) which left a big hole at QB for the Titans. The Titans, with new head coach Mike Munchak, took this issue seriously and got former Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck as well as Rookie QB Jake Locker. Star RB Chris Johnson continues his holdout and it has been said he requested a trade. WR Kenny Britt awaits a possible suspension for offseason crimes. The Titans need stability on offense and they just do not have it. The Titans need to figure out what's going on or it could be a LONG season.
The Jaguars have their own problems to deal with. David Garrard has been mediocre at best at quarterback and rookie Blaine Gabbert is pushing him to start. Stud rusher Maurice Jones-Drew is coming off of another injury and there are question marks surrounding him. Jones-Drew is a tough guy and will do everything in his power to play his best, but sometimes these things can't be fixed. Beyond TE Marcedes Lewis there isn't much of a threat receiving for the Jags. The defense doesn't really have anyone to talk about.
How the Titans can win:
-Get Chris Johnson under contract. He's the best guy on your team. Pay him so you guys can salvage your season.
-Get Hasselbeck involved early. Surprise the Jaguars.
-Get pressure on Garrard quickly. Rattle him and force turnovers.
How the Jaguars can win:
-Hope MJD can play up to his level. The Jags need him on offense.
-Bench Garrard. Gabbert is better and Garrard has had more than his fair chance to win.
-Get in Hasselbeck's face. It's his first game in Tennessee. Sure, he's a great pro, but he's still learning a new offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens 1:00 PM CBS M&T Financial Field
The Super Bowl Chumps travel to Baltimore to face the division rival Ravens. Roethlisberger returns at QB and looks poised to have another good year as well as the whole offense. The Steelers added Jericho Cotchery at WR and he's likely to get a fair share of passes from Ben. 1st round pick Cameron Heyward looks like a prototypical Steeler guy and he will likely get playing time early. Joining him on defense is reigning defensive MVP Troy Polamalu, who will be fully healthy this season after missing time last year. The Steelers look poised to have another great year.
The Ravens said goodbye to a couple of faces that have become faces of the franchise. Departing this offseason were TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, and RB Willis McGahee. TE Dennis Pitta looks like he's ready to step up and play tight end. To make up for the loss of McGahee, the Ravens signed Ricky Williams, the former Saints and Dolphins back. He will back up star RB Ray Rice. Their defense returns in full force and it looks just as menacing as ever. Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs...this defense is poised to kick some ass.
How the Steelers can win:
-Call bootlegs for Ben. Roethlisberger is a much better QB when he's in space and he's playing in school yard type situations. Get him outside of the pocket and it will get the Ravens on edge.
-A steady dose of Mendenhall. It's always key to control a game vs a great defense.
-Stop Rice. That's not easy, but the Steelers had the best defense in the NFL last year, and there's no reason why that would change this year.
How the Ravens can win:
-Contain Ben. Green Bay used Clay Matthews as a QB spy in Super Bowl XLV. This forced ben to throw from the pocket where he looked uncomfortable at times. The Ravens need to do this.
-Get Rice involved. He's the most dynamic weapon on the field for the Ravens.
-Utilize Dennis Pitta. The young TE will take the league by surprise this year. Start him out early.
PREDICTION: Steelers 23 Ravens 21
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans 1:00 PM CBS Reliant Field
The Colts travel to Houston to face their rivals who have been playing the Colts very tough lately. There is a very strong possibility that QB Peyton Manning will miss this game. If he can't go, the Colt's contingency plan is vet QB Kerry Collins. There is a large dropoff in play, but it's an even bigger drop off to Curtis Painter. Joseph Addai returns as the starter, but rookie Delone Carter is pushing for at least 3rd down/goaline carries. Austin Collie and Dallas Clark return to the team to open up the passing game for the Colts. On defense, oft-injured safety Bob Sanders departed and the Colts signed free agent Tommie Harris at DT. The defensive line remains the strongpoint.
Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson return as one of the most dangerous trios in the NFL. Their offense remains essentially the same with Owen Daniels returning and Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones are still there. The biggest changes to the Texans come on defense. Wade Phillips came over from Dallas and the Texans switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Star defensive end Mario Williams is now an outside linebacker and he looks lost. The advantage of his size/speed combination is partially nullified by the fact that he's forced to start outside standing up. Rookie Brooks Reed looks like he's the real deal and he's becoming a good pass rusher. The shaky pass defense is shored up with free agent CB Jonathan Joseph coming over from Cincinatti
How the Colts can win:
-Get Peyton Manning healthy. Peyton Manning > Kerry Collins
-Stop Foster. Tall order. Their defensive line is good, but it's more pass rushers than run stoppers.
-Use Dallas Clark. Manning's play dropped off after Clark's departure. He's a great TE and he can stretch the field.
How the Texans can win:
-Shut down Manning if he can play. Obvious fact. Nothing surprising there.
-A steady dose of Foster. If you can't shut down Manning, keep the ball out of his hands.
-Get Mario Williams up to speed. The Texans need to get him up to speed or teams will run the ball right at him.
PREDICTION Texans 31 Colts 27
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins 4:00 PM FOX FedEx Field
The New York Giants and Washington Redskins meet to play a game on a day that overshadows the game of football. This game will be played on the 10th anniversary of September 11th and these two teams were the teams most closely effected by the attacks. Both teams will be playing with heavy hearts. The Giants gutted their offensive line this offseason and they will likely have some trouble there. Free agent Center David Bass is a mauler and he seems like he's going to be the starter there for a long time, but a lot of their other linemen are going to struggle. The Giants sent TE Kevin Boss packing to Oakland and they are left with a gaping hole. Division rival Philadelphia Eagles scooped up wideout Steve Smith. The Giants cupboards are bare. To make things worse, Rookie CB Prince Amukamara is out for 2 months with an injury and the Giants lost 3 other defensive backs. On the bright side, Brandon Jacobs looks like the Brandon Jacobs of old.
The Redskins are pretty bad as well. One-year experiment Donovan McNabb was shipped to Minnesota, so there is a QB battle between Rex Grossman and John Beck. Clinton Portis appears to be done, so the Redskins drafted Roy Helu who seems to be poised to get some playing time and they signed former Cardinal Tim Hightower who has been the one glimmer of hope for this team during the preseason. Santana Moss and Chris Cooley return, but are both another year older. Brian Orakpo continues to be the best defensive player on the field and DeAngello Hall is making plays in the preseason.
How the Giants can win:
-Keep the ball out of Manning's hand. He thinks he's elite, but I think if you're coming off a 20+ INT season, you can't say that.
-Pressure Grossman/Beck. The Giants have the league's best defensive line (Detroit fans may disagree, but the Giants are just freakishly good on the DL) and either one of those guys will be pressured easily.
-Get Jacobs the ball in space. It always seems like if you give Jacobs the ball to run between the tackles, he runs directly into the pile. If Jacobs gets a head of steam, he's VERY dangerous.
How the Redskins can win:
-Confuse Manning. DeAngello Hall is salivating to grab some erratic passes.
-Keep it simple for Grossman/Beck. They need to vanilla the offense so that the defensive line is nullified.
-Take advantage of the Giants depleted secondary. They will be shorthanded.
PREDICTION: Giants 24 Redskins 10
Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers 4:00 PM FOX Qualcomm Stadium
The Vikings travel to take on Philip Rivers and the Chargers. The Vikings are without Brett Favre this year, replacing him is Donavan McNabb who most people aren't optimistic about. The Vikes also lost WR Sidney Rice to Seattle. Tackle Bryant McKinnie was let go and signed on with the Ravens. This Minnesota Vikings offensive line is depleted. Expect to see a significant drop off in play. Adrian Peterson will also likely take a hit because of this. The defense was not upgraded significantly and will likely struggle. Christian Ponder will backup McNabb, but Ponder isn't looking great.
On the other side of the field comes Philip Rivers, the Chargers' top 5 QB. All reports indicate that his favorite target, Tight End Antonio Gates, is ready to go for the season. Last year, Rivers performed exceptionally well without Gates for part of the year as well as WR Vincent Jackson. With these players returning as well as RB Ryan Matthews, the offense is set to have another top tier season. Bob Sanders was added to shore up the defense, which was ranked #1 in yards in 2010, and will provide help if he can stay healthy. There is a lot of buzz going around about rookie defensive tackle Corey Liguet. Liguet boasts an insanely low pad level and a quick burst off the ball. He should make an immediate impact.
How the Vikings can win:
-Great offensive line play. The Vikings have questions at the offensive line. They need to come out firing and maul the Chargers' d-line.
-Steady dose of AP. The best back in the league needs the ball in his hand.
-Keep McNabb's role simple. Create an easy offense for McNabb to run. He's a smart QB, but he's coming off a bad year and he needs to build confidence again.
How the Chargers can win:
-Shut down AP. The Chargers need to stop AP. If they can handle that, the Vikings should be an easy W.
-Contain Harvin on returns. Percy Harvin remains a dangerous return man.
-Put the game in the hands of Phil Rivers. He's one of the top QBs in the league and he's going to lead you to victory.
PREDICTION: Chargers 38 Vikings 13
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers 4:00 PM FOX Candlestick Park
The Seahawks traven to the Bay Area for this NFC West showdown. Coach Pete Carroll, in his second year, got rid of veteran Matt Hasselbeck and instead is holding a competition for ex-Viking Tavares Jackson and ex-Charger Charlie Whitehurst. It seems like Whitehurst is the front runner. To protect his young QBs, Carroll has recruited ex-Raiders head coach Tom Cable to coordinate his offensive line. With him, Cable brought TE Zach Miller and OG Robert Gallery. This will surely help on the offensive line. Adding even more to the line is rookie OL James Carpenter. Giving the new QBs another target was a top priority and the Seahawks landed Sidney Rice from Minnesota.
The 49ers still cannot cut ties with 2005 #1 overall pick Alex Smith. In the draft this year, the 49ers drafted QB Colin Kaepernick. He will likely put some pressure on Smith for the job, but the job is pretty much Smith's. Vernon Davis returns at TE, diva WR Michael Crabtree misses another offseason but will play come week 1, and RB Frank Gore is unhappy with his contract and is asking for a trade or a new deal. The 49ers are in trouble. Center David Bass left for New York and leaves a hole, though Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, and Mike Iupati still provide a solid frame to work with. On defense, CB Nate Clements departed and S Taylor Mays was traded. Replacing them are CBs Carlos Rodgers and Karl Paymah, and safety Madeiu Williams. Patrick Willis returns and remains one of the best LBs in football.
How the Seahawks can win:
-Have a big game out of Marshawn Lynch. The QB play isn't where it needs to be.
-Get Zach Miller involved. It's always good to have a good outlet guy. The Seahawks have 2 good outlet guys in Miller and TE John Carlson.
-Stop Gore...if he plays.
How the 49ers can win:
-Pay Gore. That's all.
-Crabtree and Ginn. Both guys need to step it up to have a shot against Seattle.
-Stop Seattle's rushing game. It's apparent that Carroll favors the rush game. Make him uncomfortable.
PREDICTION: Seattle 17 San Francisco 10
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals 4:00 PM FOX University of Phoenix Stadium
The Panthers travel down to the desert to take on the Cardinals. Rookie Cam Newton may make his first start, though it's up in the air. 2nd year QB out of Notre Dame, Jimmy Clausen, has looked okay in his preseason action. The Panthers added TE Greg Olsen from Chicago and TE Jeremy Shockey from New Orleans. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are back as one of the better tandems in the NFL. Wideout Brandon LaFell is turning heads in the preseason and it seems that he may contribute. Steve Smith remains a threat despite his age. On the defensive side of things, Jon Beason remains a top LB.
The big news out of Arizona this year was their trade for QB Kevin Kolb from the Eagles. They lost CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but gained rookie Patrick Peterson who was dubbed a "can't miss" prospect. They expect big things out of him. They also expected big things out of rookie RB Ryan Williams, but Williams recently suffered a season ending injury. This is an even bigger blow because the Cardinals got rid of one of their reserve backs, Tim Hightower. Beanie Wells will have his shot at the starting job. Larry Fitzgerald remains the focal point of the offense. Todd Heap is a nice addition at TE for the Cards.
How the Panthers can win:
-Start Jimmy Clausen. It may be tempting to start Cam Newton, but he has been wildly inaccurate thus far. He is a talented rusher, but he looks lost in the pocket and his preseason completion percentage is around 40% right now. That won't cut it.
-Return to the power running game. Use Stewart and Williams, you have them.
-Get LaFell involved. He is the most explosive player on your team. Use him for returns and as a receiver.
How the Cardinals can win:
-Get the ball to Larry. Larry Fitzgerald makes the Cardinals better.
-Beanie Wells needs to have a big game. The Cardinals cannot rely soley on the pass game. Even if it beats the Panthers, they need to establish a rushing presence.
-Pressure young QBs. Regardless of who starts, the Cards need to pressure them.
PREDICTION: Cardinals 20 Panthers 6
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets 8:20 PM NBC Metlife Stadium
Rob Ryan tries to beat Rex Ryan in this week 1 matchup. The Cowboys come in optimistic after last year's disappointing campaign. Tono Romo and Dez Bryant return and make this unit a lot more dangerous than people will think. Tyron Smith comes in to help out the offensive line that had problems last year. Jason Witten is probably the most consistent player in the league. Expect another 60+ catch and 1,000+ yard season from him. The Cowboys finally cut ties with Marion Barber. The starting job is Felix Jones' right now, but rookie DeMarco Murray may overtake him. The Cowboys' glaring hole continues to be their secondary. It's swiss cheese. Harr Harr...
The Jets are essentially the same team as last year. They got rid of Braylon Edwards and they signed Plaxico Burress. Both wear the same number, the only difference is that Edwards drops a bunch of balls and it seems Burress can't stay healthy. The Jets only major departures were Jericho Cotchery and Shaun Ellis, but they landed former Ravens WR Derrick Mason. The Jets defense remains intact and they added Temple defensive lineman Mohammad Wilkerson, he will likely contribute quickly.
How the Cowboys can win:
-Throw the ball to Witten. It seems that every critical down the Cowboys have, Witten is wide open. Why not use him more? He's awesome.
-Throw the ball to Dez Bryant. Revis will likely be on Austin, but I think Bryant will be able to burn Cromartie.
-Limit Jones' carries, but keep the Jets defense honest at the same time.
How the Jets can win:
-Pressure Romo. The Cowboys have plenty of offensive targets. The Jets have a great secondary, but it's asking a lot out of them to cover Witten, Bryant, and Austin. Pressure is the safest option.
-Exploit Dallas' secondary. It's weak. Holmes and Burress should get some chances.
-Hope that there isn't inclement weather. Sanchez plays poorly the worse the weather is.
PREDICTION: Jets 27 Cowboys 24
Monday, September 12, 2011
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins 7:00 PM ESPN Sunlife Stadium
The Patriots ended their season the same way the Dolphins did last year. At home watching the Super Bowl. The difference is the Patriots seemed to be the class of the league while the Dolphins were chum (haha nautical references). The Patriots responded this offseason by adding a ton of free agent talent. Joining the Patriots squad are ex-Bengal Chad Ochocinco, ex-Redskin and Titan Albert Hanseworth, and ex-Jet Shaun Ellis. Joining Logan Mankins on the offensive line is rookie Nate Solder. Jerrod Mayo returns as the team's best defender.
The Dolphins flirted with trading for QB Kyle Orton from the Broncos, but the Broncos didn't go through with it. Chad Henne returns as the team's starter. Gone is the tandem fans have grown to love in Miami of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, now the Phins have Reggie Bush from New Orleans and Daniel Thomas, a rookie. Jake Long remains one of the league's top offensive linemen. On defense, Vonte Davis and Karlos Dansby lead the marginal at best unit.
How the Patriots can win:
-Shut down Henne. Check.
-Stop the run. Check.
-Show up to the stadium. Check
How the Dolphins can win:
-Shut down Brady. Not happening.
-Shut down Ochocino, Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Woodhead, etc. Not happening.
-Luck. Maybe?
PREDICTION: Patriots 41 Dolphins 10
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos 10:15 PM ESPN Invesco Field
The Raiders travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in this underwhelming AFC West matchup. The Raiders are going through an overhaul. New head coach Hue Jackson took the strategy of stocking offensive line depth in the draft and is building the team from the ground up. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush return to bring an insanely good rushing game to the table. Kevin Boss came onboard from the Giants and adds depth at tight end after Zach Miller departed for Seattle. On defense, the biggest loss was star CB Nnamdi Asomugha, which will hurt the defense greatly. Terrelle Pryor was taken with the Raiders' 3rd round pick in the Supplemental Draft and may contribute after serving his 5 game suspension.
The Broncos come in as one big mess. Tim Tebow was supposed to start, now he's the #4 QB. Nobody really knows what is going on with RB Knowshon Moreno. Brandon Lloyd and Von Miller are about the only positives you can come up with with this team. Maybe Kyle Orton as well.
How the Raiders can win:
-McFadden. All day.
-Shut down Lloyd. Tall order without Nnamdi.
-Limit Jason Campbell's touches. He's an all right QB, but he's not always careful.
How the Broncos can win:
-Have faith in Orton. He can play and the Raiders took a hit in their secondary.
-Contain McFadden. They need to keep him in check to have a shot.
-Establish some sort of a run game with Moreno.
PREDICTION: Raiders 23 Broncos 14
Thursday, June 2, 2011
My NFL Top 100
Since the NFL doesn't know what the hell it's doing with their top 100 list, I took it upon myself to make my own list of the NFL's top 100 players. This is based off of 2010-2011 ONLY. Guys like Tony Romo will not be on this list because he was hurt for too long to make an impact.
100. Brad Smith, KR, New York Jets
99. Stefan Logan, KR, Detroit Lions
98. Jahri Evans, G, New Orleans Saints
97. Ryan Kalil, C, Carolina Panthers
96. Leon Washington, KR, Seattle Seahawks
95. Sebastian Janikowski, K, Oakland Raiders
94. Kris Dielman, OL, San Diego Chargers
93. Terrell Owens, WR, Cincinati Bengals
92. Chris Snee, G, New York Giants
91. Donald Penn, T, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
90. Mat McBriar, P, Dallas Cowboys
89. Marc Mariani, KR, Tennessee Titans
88. David Akers, K, Philadelphia Eagles
87. Donte Whitner, S, Buffalo Bills
86. TJ Ward, S, Cleveland Browns
85. Lawrence Timmons, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
84. Jordan Gross, T, Carolina Panthers
83. LaRod Stephens Howling, KR, Arizona Cardinals
82. BenJarvis Green Ellis, RB, New England Patriots
81. Brent Grimes, CB, Atlanta Falcons
80. Andre Gurode, C, Dallas Cowboys
79. Matt Cassel, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
78. Trent Cole, DE, Philadelphia Eagles
77. Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
76. Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
75. Nick Mangold, C, New York Jets
74. London Fletcher, LB, Washington Redskins
73. Dez Bryant, WR/KR, Dallas Cowboys
72. Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami Dolphins
71. Chad Greenway, LB, Minnesota Vikings
70. Justin Tuck, DE, New York Giants
69. Paul Posluzny, LB, Buffalo Bills
68. Devin Hester, WR/KR/PR, Chicago Bears
67. LeGarrett Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
66. Santonio Holmes, WR, New York Jets
65. Aqib Talib, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
64. Joe Haden, CB, Cleveland Browns
63. Jason Babin, DE, Tennessee Titans
62. Steve Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills
61. BJ Raji, NT, Green Bay Packers
60. Joe Thomas, T, Cleveland Browns
59. Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
58. Haloti Nagta, NT, Baltimore Ravens
57. Charles Woodson, CB, Green Bay Packers
56. Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
55. Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets
54. DeAngelo Hall, CB, Washington Redskins
53. Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys
52. Tramon Williams, CB, Green Bay Packers
51. Troy Polamalu, S, Pittsburgh Steelers
50. Nick Collins, S, Green Bay Packers
49. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Denver Broncos
48. Desean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
47. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chielfs
46. Logan Mankins, G, New England Patriots
45. Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins
44. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
43. Ed Reed, S, Baltimore Ravens
42. Stephen Tulloch, LB, Tennessee Titans
41. John Abraham, DE, Atlanta Falcons
40. Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers
39. Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns
38. Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers
37. Stephen Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams
36. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
35. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
34. Jerome Harrison, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
33. Cameron Wake, DE, Miami Dolphins
32. Jake Long, OT, Miami Dolphins
31. Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons
30. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
29. Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
28. Asante Samuel, CB, Philadelphia Eagles
27. Ray Lewis, LB, Baltimore Ravens
26. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
25. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
24. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions
23. Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans
22. Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago Bears
21. Patrick Willis, LB, San Francisco 49ers
20. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
19. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
18. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
17. Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys
16. Devin McCourty, CB, New England Patriots
15. Tamba Hali, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs
14. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
13. Nnamdi Asomugah, CB, Oakland Raiders
12. Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
11. Clay Matthews, OLB, Green Bay Packers
10. Jarod Mayo, LB, New England Patriots
9. Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
8. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons
7. Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
6. Demarcus Ware, OLB, Dallas Cowboys
5. Maurice Jones Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
3. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
2. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
1. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
100. Brad Smith, KR, New York Jets
99. Stefan Logan, KR, Detroit Lions
98. Jahri Evans, G, New Orleans Saints
97. Ryan Kalil, C, Carolina Panthers
96. Leon Washington, KR, Seattle Seahawks
95. Sebastian Janikowski, K, Oakland Raiders
94. Kris Dielman, OL, San Diego Chargers
93. Terrell Owens, WR, Cincinati Bengals
92. Chris Snee, G, New York Giants
91. Donald Penn, T, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
90. Mat McBriar, P, Dallas Cowboys
89. Marc Mariani, KR, Tennessee Titans
88. David Akers, K, Philadelphia Eagles
87. Donte Whitner, S, Buffalo Bills
86. TJ Ward, S, Cleveland Browns
85. Lawrence Timmons, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
84. Jordan Gross, T, Carolina Panthers
83. LaRod Stephens Howling, KR, Arizona Cardinals
82. BenJarvis Green Ellis, RB, New England Patriots
81. Brent Grimes, CB, Atlanta Falcons
80. Andre Gurode, C, Dallas Cowboys
79. Matt Cassel, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
78. Trent Cole, DE, Philadelphia Eagles
77. Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
76. Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
75. Nick Mangold, C, New York Jets
74. London Fletcher, LB, Washington Redskins
73. Dez Bryant, WR/KR, Dallas Cowboys
72. Brandon Marshall, WR, Miami Dolphins
71. Chad Greenway, LB, Minnesota Vikings
70. Justin Tuck, DE, New York Giants
69. Paul Posluzny, LB, Buffalo Bills
68. Devin Hester, WR/KR/PR, Chicago Bears
67. LeGarrett Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
66. Santonio Holmes, WR, New York Jets
65. Aqib Talib, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
64. Joe Haden, CB, Cleveland Browns
63. Jason Babin, DE, Tennessee Titans
62. Steve Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills
61. BJ Raji, NT, Green Bay Packers
60. Joe Thomas, T, Cleveland Browns
59. Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
58. Haloti Nagta, NT, Baltimore Ravens
57. Charles Woodson, CB, Green Bay Packers
56. Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
55. Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets
54. DeAngelo Hall, CB, Washington Redskins
53. Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys
52. Tramon Williams, CB, Green Bay Packers
51. Troy Polamalu, S, Pittsburgh Steelers
50. Nick Collins, S, Green Bay Packers
49. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Denver Broncos
48. Desean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
47. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chielfs
46. Logan Mankins, G, New England Patriots
45. Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins
44. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
43. Ed Reed, S, Baltimore Ravens
42. Stephen Tulloch, LB, Tennessee Titans
41. John Abraham, DE, Atlanta Falcons
40. Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers
39. Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns
38. Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers
37. Stephen Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams
36. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
35. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
34. Jerome Harrison, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
33. Cameron Wake, DE, Miami Dolphins
32. Jake Long, OT, Miami Dolphins
31. Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons
30. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
29. Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
28. Asante Samuel, CB, Philadelphia Eagles
27. Ray Lewis, LB, Baltimore Ravens
26. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
25. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
24. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions
23. Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans
22. Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago Bears
21. Patrick Willis, LB, San Francisco 49ers
20. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
19. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts
18. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
17. Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys
16. Devin McCourty, CB, New England Patriots
15. Tamba Hali, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs
14. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
13. Nnamdi Asomugah, CB, Oakland Raiders
12. Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
11. Clay Matthews, OLB, Green Bay Packers
10. Jarod Mayo, LB, New England Patriots
9. Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
8. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons
7. Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
6. Demarcus Ware, OLB, Dallas Cowboys
5. Maurice Jones Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
3. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
2. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
1. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
Monday, May 2, 2011
2011 Green Bay Packers Draft Grade
First Round:
#32 Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi St.
Great pick for the Packers. I think this is directly in response to Nick Fairley being drafted by Detroit. The Lions manhandled the Packers up front last year and the Packers offensive line was exposed. The Packers upgraded the position for the future. One idea I heard being tossed around is to move Bulaga to LG and put Sherrod at RT. This would groom him for the future and give the team the best 5 linemen on the field at the same time.
Grade: A
Second Round:
#64 Randall Cobb, WR Kentucky
Cobb has drawn comparisons to Percy Harvin. A dynamic receiver, the Packers offense becomes better because of Cobb. He can be used as a receiver, a wildcat QB, a returner, etc. Cobb helps make the Packers better. Cobb also allows the Packers to get rid of James "Stone Hands" Jones and makes Donald Driver's transition to retirement easier.
Grade: B+
Third Round:
#96 Alex Green, RB Hawaii
Green is a big, hard running back. His downside is that he does not have "second level" speed and is not shifty. It seems like the Packers want Green for his short yardage ability. The Packers did struggle a bit with goal line situations and short yardage runs. John Kuhn did all right, but an upgrade would be nice.
Grade: B+
Forth Round:
#131 Davon House, CB New Mexico State
A project with the physical attributes to become a solid starter in the NFL. The Packers have had solid CBs since Ted Thompson came to town. Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields were all playing at a high level last year. House has the privilege of learning from this solid group of players. Hopefully, he will be groomed well enough to be an eventual starter.
Grade: C+
Fifth Round
#141 D.J. Williams, TE Arkansas
Williams is an interesting prospect. He is one of Thompson's "value" picks. He has great route running ability, but he lacks blocking ability. The bigger question here is where do the other TEs fit in? Obviously, Finley is a staple. Donald Lee is likely gone. Are Quarless and Crabtree safe? Quarless had a less than stellar season, but he did flash ability. Crabtree's blocking ability may keep him in the mix. So will Quarless be gone? Only time will tell.
Grade: B-
Sixth Round
#179 Caleb Schlauderaff, OG Utah
Not a player who can come in and help right away. Will likely spend time on the practice squad. He is a hard worker, but he will need lots of work to make a serious run at the starting lineup.
Grade: D
#186 D.J. Smith, LB Appalachian State
Another body for camp. Will try and compete for a roster spot, but Zombo, Walden, and Jones will be the front-runners for the starting ROLB spot.
Grade: D
#197 Ricky Elmore, DE Arizona
At 260 pounds, will likely be an OLB in the 34 defense. I think he's also going to be a camp body, but I like him better than Smith.
Grade C-
Round Seven
#218 Ryan Taylor, TE/FB North Carolina
A big TE/FB who will likely see a lot of time on special teams. He was captain for the special teams unit in 2008 and 2010 for NC. Thompson goes for special team help here because the Packers were lacking in this area.
Grade: C-
#233 Lawrence Guy, DT Arizona State
A solid 5-technique DE in a 3-4, Guy has ideal size to help out. He has a learning disability as well as ADD, so the Packers must be patient. If the Packers can harness his potential, this is a steal at pick 233. A developmental guy with tremendous upside.
Grade: B-
#32 Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi St.
Great pick for the Packers. I think this is directly in response to Nick Fairley being drafted by Detroit. The Lions manhandled the Packers up front last year and the Packers offensive line was exposed. The Packers upgraded the position for the future. One idea I heard being tossed around is to move Bulaga to LG and put Sherrod at RT. This would groom him for the future and give the team the best 5 linemen on the field at the same time.
Grade: A
Second Round:
#64 Randall Cobb, WR Kentucky
Cobb has drawn comparisons to Percy Harvin. A dynamic receiver, the Packers offense becomes better because of Cobb. He can be used as a receiver, a wildcat QB, a returner, etc. Cobb helps make the Packers better. Cobb also allows the Packers to get rid of James "Stone Hands" Jones and makes Donald Driver's transition to retirement easier.
Grade: B+
Third Round:
#96 Alex Green, RB Hawaii
Green is a big, hard running back. His downside is that he does not have "second level" speed and is not shifty. It seems like the Packers want Green for his short yardage ability. The Packers did struggle a bit with goal line situations and short yardage runs. John Kuhn did all right, but an upgrade would be nice.
Grade: B+
Forth Round:
#131 Davon House, CB New Mexico State
A project with the physical attributes to become a solid starter in the NFL. The Packers have had solid CBs since Ted Thompson came to town. Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields were all playing at a high level last year. House has the privilege of learning from this solid group of players. Hopefully, he will be groomed well enough to be an eventual starter.
Grade: C+
Fifth Round
#141 D.J. Williams, TE Arkansas
Williams is an interesting prospect. He is one of Thompson's "value" picks. He has great route running ability, but he lacks blocking ability. The bigger question here is where do the other TEs fit in? Obviously, Finley is a staple. Donald Lee is likely gone. Are Quarless and Crabtree safe? Quarless had a less than stellar season, but he did flash ability. Crabtree's blocking ability may keep him in the mix. So will Quarless be gone? Only time will tell.
Grade: B-
Sixth Round
#179 Caleb Schlauderaff, OG Utah
Not a player who can come in and help right away. Will likely spend time on the practice squad. He is a hard worker, but he will need lots of work to make a serious run at the starting lineup.
Grade: D
#186 D.J. Smith, LB Appalachian State
Another body for camp. Will try and compete for a roster spot, but Zombo, Walden, and Jones will be the front-runners for the starting ROLB spot.
Grade: D
#197 Ricky Elmore, DE Arizona
At 260 pounds, will likely be an OLB in the 34 defense. I think he's also going to be a camp body, but I like him better than Smith.
Grade C-
Round Seven
#218 Ryan Taylor, TE/FB North Carolina
A big TE/FB who will likely see a lot of time on special teams. He was captain for the special teams unit in 2008 and 2010 for NC. Thompson goes for special team help here because the Packers were lacking in this area.
Grade: C-
#233 Lawrence Guy, DT Arizona State
A solid 5-technique DE in a 3-4, Guy has ideal size to help out. He has a learning disability as well as ADD, so the Packers must be patient. If the Packers can harness his potential, this is a steal at pick 233. A developmental guy with tremendous upside.
Grade: B-
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