The Brady Myth

The draft is quickly approaching, it's just over 2 months away.  Every year when the draft comes we see the whole tired Brady storyline about him being a 6th round pick and now he's a 3-time champ and a 2-time MVP.  Every 6th round pick that gets taken, especially QB, get's all this hype by fans of the teams that took them.  You hear it all the time, "Dude, so and so is going to be great!"  "He's a 6th round pick dude, relax."  "Brady was a 6th round pick!!"  But this logic is so unbelievably flawed. 

For this post, assume a "good" QB is a QB who starts at least 1 full season and has at least a 1:1 TD:INT ratio.  I think those are pretty modest standards for a QB.  When it's close, I'll look at other numbers (YPA, QBR, etc.) to determine whether or not the player was "good")

First, let's look at the QBs drafted in the 6th round since Brady was drafted:

2000:
Marc Bulger, New Orleans Saints
Spergon Wynn, Cleveland Browns
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Todd Husak, Washington Redskins
JaJuan Seider, San Diego Chargers

This year, we have 2 good QBs in the draft.  One is obviously Tom Brady, the other is Marc Bulger.  Bulger threw for almost 23,000 yards and 122 TDs.  Spergon Wynn threw 1 TD to 7 INTs in his career.  So right now, we're at 2-3.  3 QBs in that group weren't successful at all.

2001:
Josh Booty, Seattle Seahawks
Josh Heupel, Miami Dolphins

Neither of those guys did anything, we're now at 2-5.

2002:
J.T. O'Sullivan, New Orleans Saints
Steve Bellisari, St. Louis Rams

O'Sullivan did start 8 games, but didn't have any success.  Bellisari was converted to safety and is now a FA in the Arena Football League.  2-7.

2003:
Drew Henson, Houston Texans
Brooks Bollinger, New York Jets
Kliff Kingsbury, New England Patriots

3 guys that panned out to nothing, surprised?  I'm not.  2-10.

2004:
Andy Hall, Philadelphia Eagles
Josh Harris, Baltimore Ravens
Jim Sorgi, Indianapolis Colts
Jeff Smoker, St. Louis Rams

4 more career backups.  2-14.

2005:
Derek Anderson, Baltimore Ravens

Anderson has had limited success.  He has close to 40 starts, over 9,000 yards, and 53:55 TD:INT ratio.  I think that's good enough to be considered "good."  3-14

2006:
Reggie McNeal, Cincinnati Bengals
Bruce Gradkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Gradkowski fulfills the starts requirement, but falls a bit short on the TD:INT requirement.  His 5.7 YPA and 65.8 QBR seal the deal.  He wasn't very good.  3-16

2007:
Jordan Palmer, Washington Redskins

Not much to say here.  Inferior to his older brother, Carson.  3-17.

2008:
Colt Brennan, Washington Redskins
Andre' Woodson, New York Giants

Unspectacular, 3-19

2009:
Tom Brandstater, Denver Broncos
Mike Teel, Seattle Seahawks
Keith Null, St. Louis Rams
Curtis Painter, Indianapolis Colts

4 guys with not much going on between them.  Null and Painter both got some extended playing time, but neither performed particularly well.  3-23.

2010:
Rusty Smith, Tennessee Titans
Dan LeFevour, Chicago Bears
Joe Webb, Minnesota Vikings
Tony Pike, Carolina Panthers

Not much to say again, 3-27.

I'm leaving 2011 out because it's not fair to judge first year guys especially with no true offseason.

So let's analyze this a bit.  Out of 30 QBs taken from 2000-2010 in the 6th round, only 3 have gone on to be successful.  Just 10%.  1 of the 3 wasn't even extremely successful.  Bulger was a good starter, but was never outrageously good even with Torry Holt and Issac Bruce. 

Taking this further, let's see the current breakdown of starting NFL QBs.
Arizona: Kevin Kolb, 2nd Round
Atlanta: Matt Ryan, 1st Round
Baltimore: Joe Flacco, 1st Round
Buffalo: Ryan Fitzpatrick, 7th Round
Carolina: Cam Newton, 1st Round
Chicago: Jay Cutler, 1st Round
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton, 2nd Round
Cleveland: Colt McCoy, 3rd Round
Dallas: Tony Romo, undrafted
Denver: Tim Tebow, 1st Round
Detroit: Matthew Stafford, 1st Round
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, 1st Round
Houston: Matt Schaub, 3rd Round
Indianapolis: Peyton Manning, 1st Round
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert, 1st Round
Kansas City: Matt Cassel, 7th Round
Miami: Chad Henne, 2nd Round/Matt Moore, undrafted
Minnesota: Christian Ponder, 1st Round
New England: Tom Brady, 6th Round
New Orleans: Drew Brees, 2nd Round
New York G: Eli Manning, 1st Round
New York J: Mark Sanchez, 1st Round
Oakland Raiders: Carson Palmer, 1st Round
Philadelphia: Michael Vick, 1st Round
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round
San Diego, Philip Rivers, 1st Round
San Francisco: Alex Smith, 1st Round
Seattle: Tavaris Jackson, 2nd Round
St. Louis: Sam Bradford, 1st Round
Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman, 1st Round
Tennessee: Matt Hasselbeck, 6th Round
Washington: Rex Grossman, 1st Round/John Beck, 2nd Round

1st Rounders:  20
2nd Rounders: 6
3rd Rounders: 2
6th Rounders: 2
7th Rounders: 2
Undrafted: 2

Just 6% of the starting QBs in the NFL are 6th round picks.  59% are 1st round picks.  76% are 1st or 2nd round picks.

What round were the SB winning QBs drafted in?

Going back to 1990:
Eli Manning (2):1st Round
Aaron Rodgers: 1st Round
Drew Brees: 2nd Round
Ben Roethlisberger (2): 1st Round
Peyton Manning: 1st Round
Tom Brady (3): 6th Round
Brad Johnson: 9th Round
Trent Dilfer: 1st Round
Kurt Warner: Undrafted
John Elway (2): 1st Round
Brett Favre (2): 2nd Round
Troy Aikman (3): 1st Round
Steve Young: 1st Round
Mark Rypien: 6th Round
Jeff Hostetler: 3rd round

In 23 Super Bowls, just 4 have been won by 6th round picks.  Only 2 different players did it.  Where you're QB was picked DOES matter.  17 of the 23 winners have been 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round picks.

So remember all of this the next time some idiot starts spouting off how great his 6th round pick is.  It DOES matter where your QB is taken.  There's a chance that he may be good later on in the draft, but the majority of good QBs come from the early rounds.