This MVP race is interesting. It's divided between two factions, one that believes that Rodgers should win because his efficiency is through the roof. The other believes that Brees should win because his gross stats and accuracy are through the roof. Me being insane, I figured I should look deeper than the gross numbers of each to really paint a picture of the two QBs. I'm going to talk about a bunch of accusations of both guys and compare stats. Enjoy guys!
Drew Brees can't win outdoors.
This is the reason I posted this. I decided to find more just because I'm insane . Brees really does decline away from the dome. He has trouble playing in the cold which may be a problem if the road to the Super Bowl goes through Lambeau. Let's look at the numbers, first indoors:
277/383 3,257 yards 72.3% completions 8.5 YPA 34 TDs 9% TD% 6 INTs 2% INT% 120.8 QB Rating
Pretty damn good if you ask me. Those are Aaron Rodgers numbers! Now outdoors.
191/279 2,219 yards 69.7% 8.1 YPA 12 TD 4% TD% 8 INT 3% INT% 96.4 QBR
Pretty sizable difference. 104 less completions 22 TDs less and 2 INTs more. The yardage is surprisingly close. Let's look at these numbers, first indoors then outdoors, spread out over 657 attempts, the number Brees had on the year.
Indoors:
473/657 72.3% 5,584 yards 8.5 YPA 58 TD 10 INT 120.6 QBR
Outdoors:
460/657 69.7% 5,321 yards 8.1 YPA 29 TD 19 INT 96.8 QBR
The difference in completions is Indoors +13. The difference in yardage is Indoors +263. Both are pretty small differences suggesting that Brees is roughly as efficient completing passes and gaining yardage in both environments. Where the significant differences lie is between the TDs and INTs. Brees is exactly twice as efficient throwing TDs indoors as outdoors. He's also almost almost twice as efficient avoiding mistakes indoors. Why the difference? I think it's clear. Those people saying Brees struggles indoors have a point.
Deep Balls
Brees' attempts 11+ yards in the air:
115/200 58% 2,494 yards 12.47 YPA 17 TDs 8 INTs 113.6 QBR
Rodgers' attempts 11+ yards in the air:
104/186 56% 2,615 yards 14.6 YPA 24 TDs 2 INTs 145.8 QBR
When you take Brees out of his element, the short ball, Rodgers reigns supreme. Some differences?
Rodgers has a 13% TD% compared to Brees' 8%
Rodgers has a 1% INT% compared to Brees' 4%
Rodgers has a full 2 yards YPA higher than Brees
Winners play well when the game is on the line
This is the most telling part of my analysis. One that uncovered a couple shocking truths about Brees. He doesn't play amazingly well when he's trailing. First off, he's thrown twice as many INTs in opponents' territory (6) than Rodgers (3). First lets look at his stats in the 4th quarter trailing by OR leading in the 4th quarter, in other words..how does he play when the game is close?
48/68 70.6% 520 yards 7.65 YPA 5 TD 1 INT 111.2 QBR
Compared to Rodgers:
25/36 69.4% 422 yards 11.72 YPA 5 TDs 0 INTs 148.4 QBR
While Brees played well, Rodgers played lights out. No mistakes. He trailed by 98 yards with 32 less attempts and scored 5 TDs. He had an astounding 11.72 YPA in those throws. That's the mark of a player whose team has full faith in him with the game on the line. Which comes to my next point: Rodgers never turned the ball over when trailing this year. Let's look at Brees' stats when trailing:
114/210 69% 1847 yards 8.80 YPA 14 TD 7 INT 104.2 QBR
Not bad, but Rodgers still outplayed him when trailing.
78/118 66% 1,093 yards 9.26 YPA 9 TD 0 INT 119.8 QBR
Rodgers scores much more efficiently and did not turn the ball over at all. His low-ish QB Rating is likely from the lower comp %.
How do both of them fare when the game is close, but they're winning? Here are their numbers when they're winning at any point in the game by 1 to 7 points:
Brees:
158/224 70.5% 1,771 yards 7.91 YPA 10 TDs 6 INTs 97.5 QBR
Rodgers:
109/167 65% 1,494 yards 8.95 YPA 14 TDs 1 INT 119.2 QBR
Again, Brees throws more INTs and less TDs with more attempts while Rodgers has a higher YPA. Truth is, Brees is inferior to Rodgers in most situations....except...
Brees runs up the score.
There, I said it. It's true. He's a compiler. Let the numbers from games they won by 15+ explain for me:
Brees:
164/224 73.2% 2,066 yards 9.22 YPA 26 TDs 3 INTs 134.6 QBR
Rodgers:
87/127 68.5% 1,255 yards 9.88 YPA 13 TDs 3 INTs 124.6 QBR
Now Brees can keep up with Rodgers, when he's kicking people when they're down. But who is the QB who REALLY helps his team? The answer has to be Rodgers. Rodgers doesn't run up the score. Rodgers doesn't stay in and throw TD passes when he doesn't have to. Brees does. Let's look at their numbers in games where they won by 14 or less or lost.
Brees:
304/433 70% 3,410 yards 7.88 YPA 20 TDs 11 INTs 98.2 QBR
Rodgers:
256/375 68% 3,388 yards 9.03 YPA 32 TDs 3 INTs 121.7 QBR
So when you take the blowout wins and you put in the games where the QBs had to play better, Rodgers did play better. Rodgers was the better QB this year and it had nothing to do with being a system QB. Rodgers just had the better year. Rodgers went out, won games, and sat down like I've been saying all along. Brees hung in and threw when he didn't need to and his numbers reflect that. In close games, Rodgers would have STILL broken the QB rating record. Brees would have had an okay season. Slightly above average. See the difference now?
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