So we embark on the endeavor that is the NFL offesason. Right now is the dull period. The Combine is starting and free agency is starting soon. NFL teams are getting prepared for the NFL Draft as well. One interesting situation is what is going to happen with Matt Flynn, the backup QB for Green Bay. He's a free agent and there's a shortage of QBs. Obvious teams in need of a QB are Indianapolis, Cleveland, Seattle, Washington, and Miami. Will Flynn go to any one of these teams? I think he's going to Miami, but not as a free agent. I think that Green Bay will place the franchise tag Flynn and trade him. A lot of people don't agree with me, but I've been saying this for a while now and everything I have said has come true so far, so let me explain why I feel this way.
The first hint that Flynn would be tagged came back on week 17. Flynn stepped in for Rodgers who got the week off because the Packers had nothing to play for. Flynn threw for 6 TDs and just 1 INT without top WR Greg Jennings. He came from behind to beat the playoff bound Detroit Lions with Matthew Stafford at QB. Flynn had played well in his one start in 2010 for Aaron Rodgers when Rodgers was out with a concussion vs New England, but one game doesn't tell you everything. Flynn in his two starts is 1-1 and has thrown for 9TDs to just 2INTs. Obviously, Flynn isn't a terrible QB.
The tag talk was just speculation back then. We had other free agent issues to deal with. Center Scott Wells who has done a good job since Mike Flannagan left and tight end Jermichael Finley who is a matchup nightmare dispite his frequent drops were also both due to become free agents. It was pretty obvious that one of those two would be tagged. Finley and the Packers seemed far appart on the contract negotiations and he seemed destined for the tag.
A big development occurred, however. Offensive coordinator Joe Philbin signed a deal with the Miami Dolphins to become their new head coach. The Dolphins owner Stephen Ross stated during the season that he wanted a "superstar coach and quarterback." If Ross' idea of a superstar coach was Joe Philbin, maybe his idea of a superstar QB is Flynn? A lot of people speculate that Peyton Manning will head to Miami, but I don't see this happening. In my honest opinion, I think Manning is done for good with football. 4 neck procedures is a serious thing. Manning's neck seems to not be responding well to treatment. He was only able to pass the ball about 20 yards during the season. His rehab is moving along too slowly for any team to put stock into him being their starting QB on opening day.
So now, Philbin is the head coach of Miami. He's implementing the system that Flynn has learned and practiced since he was a rookie out of LSU in 2008. Miami has a good offensive structure. They have some good offensive linemen like Jake Long and Mike Pouncey. Brandon Marshall is a perennial pro bowl wide out. Reggie Bush emerged as the back people expected him to be back in 2006. The issue in Miami is the quarterback position. Miami decided not to bring QB Chad Henne back leaving Matt Moore as the only QB left on the roster worth starting. Moore did in fact spark some life into the Miami team last season, but he's extremely limited. Miami is definitely in the market for a new QB especially because they have an entirely new system now.
So what options do the Dolphins have to rectify their QB problems? Let's look into it:
1) Keep Matt Moore. Moore would be the safest choice, but also the one with the least potential. The Dolphins know what they have in Moore. There is little risk in keeping him at QB, but like I said, he's limited. The Dolphins are looking to move up.
2) Draft a QB. At either pick 8 or 9, depending on a coin flip, Miami will likely be too far back to secure a top QB without trading up. At pick 8, the two best QBs available would be Ryan Tannehill or Brandon Weeden, both guys being enormous reaches.
3) Trade or sign a FA QB. The Dolphins have very few options here. They could try and get Peyton Manning if he's released, but like I said, his health issues probably scare most teams. They could go for Jason Campbell, but he's similar to Matt Moore. He's just an average guy. The best option here would be Matt Flynn. But what will it take to get Flynn?
Depending on what the Packers decide to do with Flynn, the Dolphins will have a legitimate shot at getting Flynn. We've already established that he'd be a great fit for the offense seeing as he knows it already and he can come right in and start. Let's first assume that the Packers let him go via FA and don't tag him. The teams that can't score a great QB in the draft will likely bid for his services. Washington, Seattle, and Miami would likely be in a 3 way fight for him. This will drive his cost up enormously and thus would likely net the Packers a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2013. This would be the easiest for everybody because it doesn't involve cap maneuvering. But the Packers stand to gain more than a 3rd round pick if they tag and trade, but just how much more?
To understand the complications the tag brings, I'll have to first explain the Packers' cap situation. As I mentioned earlier, one of the biggest issues with tagging Flynn was that it would make it impossible to tag Jermichael Finley. Finley and the Packers just agreed to a 2-year deal last night without using the tag which frees up the use of the tag for either Flynn or center Scott Wells. The Packers feel that Wells is overvaluing himself. Understandably, Wells took offense to that statement and is destined to hit the open market to try to get a lucrative deal. The only player left to deal with is Matt Flynn.
The first issue with tagging Flynn is the money that comes with the tag. NFL teams are not allowed to be over the cap and with the new Finley deal, the Packers are left with roughly $4.25 million in cap room. The franchise tag number for QBs is about $14.4 million which is all guaranteed which counts 100% towards the cap, so the Packers need to free up space in order to tag him. This is where Ted Thompson being a genius comes in. Teams like the Steelers are in cap hell because they structured the deals with aging veterans poorly. They gave up way too much guaranteed money. The Packers guaranteed nothing for 2 key players, Donald Driver and Chad Clifton. Driver is due to make $5,600,000 and Clifton is due to make $5,703,125. Both can be cut and those totals would be deducted from the total team salary putting us under the cap by roughly $15,553,125. This is plenty of room to tag Flynn and it will only last a couple of days until he gets traded. Also, sadly, if Nick Collins is forced to retire, this adds another $3,450,000 of cap room with no cap hit. After the trade is completed, the Packers would easily be able to sign Driver and Clifton back to smaller deals seeing as their roles will likely be diminished in 2012.
So the Packers have cap room now and they tag Flynn, Miami shows interest and wants to make a deal. Best case scenario would be the two teams swap 1st rounders and the Dolphins get Flynn. I know that won't sit well with many of you, but it's win-win for both teams. The Packers move up and can get a top 10 pass rusher. The Dolphins stay in the first round, but secure a QB, opening up options to improve their team later in the draft. Maybe Miami throws in a 5th rounder, but I doubt it. Miami can also ship over a 2nd rounder for Flynn straight up or maybe a 3rd and a 5th. Any of these options are more desirable than letting Flynn go and collecting a 3rd round compensatory pick in 2013. Compensatory picks are given at the end of each round. A 3rd round compensatory pick is given at the end of the 3rd round, so it is essentially a 4th round pick. You also cannot trade a compensatory pick, so even if we get a 3rd rounder for Flynn this year, we can still use it to trade up and snag a better player.
The actions of the Packers and the Dolphins indicate that a trade is imminent. Matt Flynn deserves this. He was a backup to JaMarcus Russell at LSU and the Packers gave him a shot. He beat out former Packer and Bill Brian Brohm who was touted as the most pro-ready QB in the 2008 draft class. He worked hard and he earned the right to go start for another team. Let's just make sure the Packers get compensated for their work in his development as well.
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